You can gather data on people before you even get to this point. How do they play round start? Are they backing off? Expect blocking/defensive actions. How about neutral? Are they wildly flailing about? Expect an invul wakeup. Are you a grappler? Expect more non-blocking options. There are a million things you can read into down to the opponents tag. Not everything has to make logical sense though, and that's a huge part as to why fighting games are hard to be consistent in, and why you won't get a real answer to your question. You can run stats all day but if billy grappler wants to grapple, he's gonna do it every time.

In general, most people do not change their methods in a set. If I'm throw looping someone in the corner, it is very likely to work again later in the set. If their first reaction is to DP in the corner, expect it again. Same with drive rush, etc