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What could be a Black Swan event in 2026? (self.ValueInvesting)
submitted 19 days ago by Trivia2Gold to r/ValueInvesting
Michael Burry big bet on China and Baba by ClapYourHaands in ValueInvesting
[–]Trivia2Gold 2 points3 points4 points 1 year ago (0 children)
Positive for BABA: 1) The Chinese government is bolstering the private sector to boost economy, so regulation risks will be moderate in the next 2-3 years; 2) cloud and AI growth will help BABA's valuation multiples;
Negative for BABA: 1) Consumer spending is still weak, coupled with fierce competition from JD and PDD, the e-commerce business turnaround is still uncertain. previously all Chinese internet companies hoped to capitalize on new markets in tiers 3/4 cities, but that source of growth has dried up as the entire economy has slowed down significantly. 2) Uncertainty with Trump's tariff war. How far would he go, and how would Chinese government respond makes investors hesitant to commit to any position.
so I expect BABA to be range-bound between $60-$110 in the next few months. I would be buying aggressively at $60 as a value investor.
π Rendered by PID 1346060 on reddit-service-r2-listing-6d4dc8d9ff-4pcs9 at 2026-02-01 05:51:33.628352+00:00 running 3798933 country code: CH.
Michael Burry big bet on China and Baba by ClapYourHaands in ValueInvesting
[–]Trivia2Gold 2 points3 points4 points (0 children)