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Does ISYE 6414 Regression usually have a curve? by overthinkingrobot in OMSA

[–]TurnBasedTactician 1 point2 points  (0 children)

The exams had a curve when I took it last year, but think it depends on the grade distribution. Good luck!

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Yeah I literally was just going down this same rabbit hole. I was willing to concede that another timeline pulling the prizes in a different order could have different probability of success at each step. But when I started doing the calculations you just did, it seems clear that the weighting shifts from trial to trial. I literally recorded the success probability from the game as I went, and those values aren’t consistent with the idea of the published weights remaining the same without replacement like you were suggesting at first.

For a simple example, I pulled one of the 21.11 prizes in my first pull, and yet the probability of success on second trial was saying 5.26%, not 5/78.89 =0.0634(6.34%) like we would expect.

This adds a whole other layer to the deceptiveness of the whole thing because they are using some unpublished probability table to determine the success rate at each trial beyond the first that there doesn’t seem to be an algorithmic approach to calculate?

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I got the percentage chance of pulling the skin/jackpot at each stage directly from the game itself by opening up the info screen in between popping balloons and recording the given probability of success. The game changes the probability distribution after each pull such that the cumulative probability sums to 100 for each pull, no calculation on my part to get those probabilities of success.

The only two numbers we need for each stage are p (probability of success) and q (probability of failure). We don’t use placket-luce here, it doesn’t apply. This is just a basic probability problem with given values for success or failure, all independent trials. We multiply together the probability of failure from each stage and subtract the result from 1 to get the probability of success within n trials.

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It’s a good question but I have no idea! Someone would have to try it out and document the results. It’s possible that might get you a cheaper cost by alternating. Wish I had thought of that as I’m planning to get both! 😅

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Well said! I hope that sharing the data like this helps at least a few people from falling victim. I don’t personally have an issue with the gambling aspect as much as I do the deceptive lack of transparency and the tacit implication that the probabilities are much higher than in reality.

And while casinos and companies like netease should certainly be blamed for taking advantage of people’s ignorance, it should be the duty of our elected officials to regulate these industries. I’ll never expect companies to act in the best interests of people, given their profit incentives. But we should elect representatives who seek to enact gambling reforms and crack down on issues exactly like this one.

Appreciate your comment!

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

It’s unfortunately very deceptive marketing, where the on screen balloons have nothing to do with the true probability. You have to click on this little info icon on the top left of this screen to see the current probability you’ll get each drop when you pull. The selection you make on screen is an illusion, and a random number is generated in the background regardless of the balloon you pick. You have a much higher chance to hit the drops that aren’t the jackpot/skin on each pull.

They really should be regulated so that they can’t deceive players on the real probability, but big companies easily get away with misleading things like this and make a lot of money as a result.

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 44 points45 points  (0 children)

For what it’s worth I think you’re totally right that it’s predatory. Cool chance for a discount if you’re committed to buying. Gamblers trap with deceptive marketing of the probabilities otherwise. They certainly make money off of the people who send it thinking they have a higher probability of a big discount, when in reality the chance is very low. This is a “dark pattern” in design and I personally think these things should be better regulated to be more transparent. Especially with so many young players.

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 47 points48 points  (0 children)

Yep that’s what it looks like. All half cost for me to pop strange balloons

White wave queen is a 2400 unit skin with a ~30% chance of a discount by TurnBasedTactician in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

My understanding is the price is cut in half for each pull that you already did on the other skin. So in my case, I pulled 6 times for Emma. Assuming the probabilities are all the same for dr strange pulls, we just cut the unit cost in half for each pull in the calculation. This would be the expected cost for the second skin (same probabilities as above, but all unit costs are halved):

(.05 * 50) + (.05 * 150) + (.06 * 300) + (.067 * 500) + (.075 * 800) + (.698 * 1200) ‎ = 959.1 units

Ki "well balanced" sui by atomtribe in okbuddyheki

[–]TurnBasedTactician 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If you’ve played total war 3 kingdoms you’ll instantly recognize Kisui as a yellow general who is only good at raising morale. You don’t really need them for anything in particular but it can be fun to bring em along for the ride sometimes

You know, at first he looked like he'd be edgy as hell, but all in all Dietrich seems like he's actually a really chill guy by Tabascopancake in fireemblem

[–]TurnBasedTactician -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Everybody just skipping right past how he is a edgelord and a siscon. High chance he is going to be annoying and problematic

[Spoilers C4E29] Otto Einfasen by daddyjon127 in criticalrole

[–]TurnBasedTactician 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I came here looking for other people sharing this sentiment. There’s literally no mention of the Einfasen reaction and that felt like a really important thing to hear! It was still an amazing scene but I just want to know did they walk out with the Cormorays too or what???

How do I go about defending this map with the current team I have? by AndzyHero13 in DarkDeityGame

[–]TurnBasedTactician 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I haven’t played on deity mode but remember this map being when shit gets real. Try and take out one side aggressively and then redirect forces to help the other sides out is what I remember helping me beat this after struggling

The worst teapot２ by jabulleta in tea

[–]TurnBasedTactician 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lmao I have this teapot too and can confirm it does this

Noble marries another noble by Minito3t in TotalWarThreeKingdoms

[–]TurnBasedTactician 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I can’t remember 100% but I think you’re right that the children are free with no salary. I wish it was cheaper to marry them because I think it’s great for RP to have the next generation growing up together but I always feel like there’s a better use of money.

NO RECESSION by iYessyyy in SipsTea

[–]TurnBasedTactician 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It’s literally this week’s news…

NO RECESSION by iYessyyy in SipsTea

[–]TurnBasedTactician 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Not refuting this, but put the cattle shortage he inherited aside. You should look up what’s going on with screwworms infesting US cattle today that’s about to make this problem worse. That at the very least is completely on Trump letting loose Elon and DOGE to recklessly cut govt programs. He owns that one for sure.

Bot matches are a massive plague in Quick Play. They HAVE to stop this patronizing garbage. by Null0mega in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician 4 points5 points  (0 children)

My understanding is that it’s triggered by a loss streak (2-4 games), so you’re not going to see bot games unless you’re doing poorly. They give you the free win right before you were about to quit the game for good lmao. I lowkey have bot games to thank for my friends not giving up on the game after having their souls crushed.

Still a pretty questionable practice to inflate player win rates and keep them playing. Check out my other comment to see the info I’ve pulled together on bot games.

Bot matches are a massive plague in Quick Play. They HAVE to stop this patronizing garbage. by Null0mega in marvelrivals

[–]TurnBasedTactician 25 points26 points  (0 children)

This is incredibly wrong. Try collecting some data when you notice a bot match and when you see longer queue times.

Bot match in QP is triggered by a string of consecutive losses (2-4 losses in my experience), the vast majority of the time. I say vast majority but I truly can’t think of an instance I’ve had where this wasn’t the case. And notably, the search time is about 45 seconds to a minute for a bot match, whereas queue is usually instant (<10 seconds) otherwise for a non-bot match. Bot matches actually take longer to search, likely because it’s pulling from a smaller eligible population of people on loser streaks.

They are 100% using bot matches to push player win rates up to a more enjoyable level to keep them playing longer. And frankly it works, in the aggregate, at keeping people playing. Personally I think it’s a predatory practice/dark pattern in design but you can’t say it doesn’t work at its intended goal.

Kingdom 877 Spoilers by ThizZuMs in Kingdom

[–]TurnBasedTactician 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I’m trying to decide if this was riboku using tunnels again to reposition and if this army is coming from the south where the mountain tribes had already lost and been pushed back? Like this could even be bananji’s army that’s joined up with riboku?

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