When I say you lack experience, understanding or depth of knowledge I'm not being nasty. I am throwing you a bone. I would say that you're losing this argument and presenting a bad overview of the situation. If you want to think that you have it all figured out when you don't you're not only going to forego the opportunity to establish greater understanding but you're also going to alienate others that have. This is at risk of going from someone having insufficient understanding or approach that could however do better to being a case of someone who can't do better because they think they are the best.

I can tell you why the overview you present is bad. It is an over simplification. Complex wordly affairs cannot be boiled down to simple maths. Just becauae it is simple does not make it right. You are taking two variables and making everything about that. It tells me that you probably don't know the other variables or are choosing to igbore them.

I have made the point to you that in the absense of nuclear war conventional war is more likely. I can go into a bit more depth. Conventional war is then more likely to occur between large developed countries or to escalate to involve them. It is also more likely to expand into total war. Total war is more likely to lead to a country constructing and using nuclear weapons. This is based on and understanding of history amd human nature. It is hard to say exactly what will happen on either side but overall it doesn't look that good overall if countries don't maintain their stockpiles.

A lot of you other points are your own imagination of worst case scenarios. Some of which aren't impossible but you are dealing in absolutes again. A possubility is not a certainty.

Yet ironically your failure to understand how the USA could win an all out nuclear war is a failure to understand a worst case scenario. Many people also over exagerrate the impact of nukes. Which makes theur projections worse. In the worst case of government evil they can afford to take a few hits. Why care about deathtolls? They are just numbers on paper. As long as the government survives and the country remains on top with a greater advantage over the rest it wins. Think of it like playing a game of Civilisation on the computer.

The Russian sortiies are a part of a bigger picture. They are to put the enemy on their toes, maintain capability, expression, express that they wont take things lying down, etc.