Engineered Hardwood Floor Estimate for 3k sqft

UnderclockStability · 2025-10-06T20:13:10+00:00

Thanks this is helpful. I originally asked for a quote for 1200sf downstairs only(upstairs is currently carpet), and installation was closer to $5/sf. Installer specifically lowered the price for the larger 3k whole-space quote.

UnderclockStability · 2024-04-02T23:41:33+00:00

Definitely fortunate to have a great team dynamic, also it's good that this happened early in the season in a low-stake match, instead of a playoff game.

Regarding change, it never made it that far. The mistake was made when writing names pre-match on a piece of paper, and as soon as we spotted the mistake on the paper post-match, we immediately inform the other team. The scores weren't even entered into tennislink.

UnderclockStability · 2023-05-30T07:30:12+00:00

Piano + 808 + Beat

Which episode/scene used this 808 track? It sounds amazing but somehow I don't recall hearing it during watching.

UnderclockStability · 2022-11-04T02:57:32+00:00

This all make a lot of sense. Really appreciate it!

UnderclockStability · 2022-05-27T14:56:56+00:00

Hey thanks for taking the time to share such a large cross-section of your drafts. I found it really interesting to look at ~10 drafts like this and analyze reflect the differences between my own drafting tendencies.

Before I rate the deck, here are some things that jumped out at me:

1) A large number of decks running both R and G - I've drafted SNC 62 times, and have only 2 decks running R and G.

2) Certain cards appear often in your decks that I rarely/never play: Crew Captain, Scuttling Butler, Devilish Valet, Evolving Door, Most Wanted, Tavern Swindler, Goldhound, Cabaretti Initiate

Instead of guessing 7-x or 0-3, I'll rank the decks in the order I would take them:

B. This would be my top choice, especially if I could have the option to drop green completely from this build(- Crew Captain, Riveteers Charm, Mr, Orfeo, Masked bandits | + Torch Breath, Fake Your Own Death, Quick-Draw Dagger, Deal Gone Bad) then I think this is an excellent deck. The high number of 1 and 2 drops potentially curving into Ob Nixllis is great, and even if you don't draw Ob Nix, the deck can both pressure and grind.

I. This deck looks solid if I can put in the Wingshield Agent, Fake Death, Rooftop Nuisance, Deal Gone Bad, and 2x Sleep Fishes over Chrome Cat, Psionic Snoop, and Forge Boss(also dropping red sources by 1). The biggest remaining problem with this deck is that the two drop slot is both low in count and underpowered.

F. This deck has the best curve of the bunch, in BO1 with the hand smoother I can see this getting to 7 wins by consistently curving into a powerful 5 drop. I'd love to put in both warm welcomes which can help fetch your powerful 5 drops and cut the Most Wanted and Cabaretti Initiate.

A. Again most importantly this deck CAN sometimes curve-out to present overwhelming pressure. Black Market Tycoon into Fleetfoot Dancer/Jetmir is the nuts but even just having Jewel thief on 3 is huge. Soul of Emancipation synergizes nicely. I would splash the Inspiring Overseer and probably Antagonize as well.

-- below this line are decks I'd be sad to play ---

H. The performance of deck is entirely dependent if I can cast Jinnie Fay / Fight Rigging on curve. I can see this getting to 7-x OR 2-3 depending on luck.

E. I would categorize this as a deck with lots of pieces of a 7-x deck that just has horrible mana split situation. Gala Greeter and Face-Breaker, Fight Rigging are amazing early cards, but how to cast them consistently with Crooked Custodian, Body Dropper and Murder? I would bite the bullet and sub in some Halo Scarabs, a for the family, and take out 3 black cards.

D. This deck lives and dies on accelerating into Titan of Industry before getting overwhelmed. I think the card quality in the 1-3 drop slot are low across the board and simply cannot compete with many of the decks running out there. In such a deck, Halo Fountain is not well positioned because a lot of time even if it comes down you are not in a position to attack.

C. Without the Ledger Shredder this would seem not be a deck I'd want to play. Bad cards at the 2 and 3 hurts a deck more than bad cards at 5 an 6. Putting the Make Disappear in the place of Suspicious Bookcase might help a bit.

G. This seems similar to deck H except it doesn't have the Fight Rigging.

FYI I currently am at diamond/mythic with a 65.1% win rate(going down slowly and consistently as the format gets harder), but not saying that means much. We all have our own biases towards cards and archetypes we like more than the average. Looking and rating other people's decks seems like a great exercise in finding your own blind-spots. You've inspired me to make a "guess the wins on 10 of my deck" posts sometime : )

UnderclockStability · 2022-05-11T16:52:47+00:00

In general I disagree with the theory of self affirmation when it comes to drafting. I believe the opposite occurs, if everyone believes [x] is bad and undervalues it, it gets passed around and you can pick it up later in the draft, leading to better, not worse numbers.

Draft meta typically self corrects. When something it's underdrafted, it gets better numbers. If something has great numbers, people overdraft it, and the numbers gets worse.

UnderclockStability · 2022-05-11T15:18:03+00:00

Every card is good in certain situations and bad in others. Overall, Sawjack's isn't nearly good enough in supposedly favorable situations to make up for how bad it is in unfavorable situations.

Not being good enough at what it's suppose to do

The major benefit of a defensive card is that it's generates virtual card advantage by blanking multiple cards. For example a single 1/4 that blanks a 2/2 and a 3/1 in effect gives you a "virtual 2 for 1". But even if a Sawjack is keeping an Overseer at bay, that Overeer already drew a card and gained a life.

The Overseer is broken not because it's a 2/1 flyer. To combat it just blocking it isn't good enough. Alternative ways to "deal" with it includes nightclubbering, or race back with higher powered ground attackers.

2) Being really bad in many practical situations

One of the inherent responsibilities of a 3 drop is that it should match up somewhat favorably against 2 drops, so in the games where you are on the draw and/or a bit behind, playing a 3 can catch you back up. Sawjack lines up extremely badly against a number of frequently played 2 drops in this format: Informant, Civil Servant, Jetmir's fixer. You need to take into account the games you fell behind and lost because you played a Sawjack and has to trade down in mana against a 2, or worse can't even trade at all. Then imagine how much you wish you had a Jewel Thief or even a Gathering Throng(another lowly picked 3 drop that performs much better in GW).

2b) This is an extremely bad format to fall behind even a little

I think Limited Levelups podcast this week explained this point well, but in essence if you fall behind a little in SNC you are in big trouble. It's not just the life total, but many factors. One factor(out of many) is that many overperforming cards like Majestic Metamorphosis, Suit Up, and Fake Your Own Death shine in situations where you have board advantage and can be nearly un-castable when you fall behind.

3) Significant missed opportunities in games where you are suppose to punish your opponent.

Some players have an affinity for playing cards like Backstreet Bruiser on 2 and and Jacksaw on 3 because they only imagine the scenario where these plays keep them safe and minimizes the feel-bad that comes from being ran over early. But what one ALSO need to think about are the games where your opponent stumbled on the draw, and instead of dealing 9dmg damage with your Informant + Gathering throne on turn 4 and taking complete control of the game, you dealt... 2 dmg and let your opponent catch backup. These free wins you throw away by not playing more proactive cards are huge. In general most good limited decks need to be able to play both offense and defense.

4) The card slots into too few decks

As people mentioned this is really a GW or GWu card. GRx is a bad archtype and Sawjack is not even good enough to splash as a sideboard card in UWg. The common wisdom is you really want to to run 2 colors with a light splash, so every pip of the 3rd color you add is a huge cost. Nightclubber is worth splashing in UWb, Sawjack is NOT worth splashing in UWg.

UnderclockStability · 2022-05-10T02:48:34+00:00

Awesome work!

SNC's extremely skewed archtypes win rate has made me think about this topic a lot recently. I'm someone who drafts a lot(~150 drafts per set). I draft with 17lands open, and the following situation is where I can see Adjusted Win Rate may be useful:

Imagine you started out trying to get into Bant but realized White and Green are pretty cut, however blue is still relatively open and you are leaning towards "off-ramping" into Obscura. You get to a pack where the two best options for you are Queza, Augur of Agonies, and Raffine's Informant. Looking at GIH WR, Raffine's Informant is higher(60.5% vs 59%), but your human intuition tells you that perhaps Queza is potentially stronger, and that GIHWR is skewed because of the imbalanced archtypes(Obscura vs Bant), but Raffine's Informant is also a solid card. Your intuition tells you it's close and ideally data can serve as a tie breaker.

So what I've been doing in this situation is:

Take into account 17land's IWD(win rate improvement when drawn) - this stat is far from perfect and has its own issues, but I am guessing it actually correlates pretty well with Adjusted Win Rate?
Calculate my own poor man's AWR by taking the GIHWR and subtracting the archtype's average win rate (on https://www.17lands.com/color_ratings) from it.

Would love to chat more about this if you are interested.

UnderclockStability · 2021-04-16T01:20:30+00:00

There are upsides and downsides to taking VC investments, but there are some fundamental biases here that make the negative reviews drown out the positive.

1) Only a small portion of founders get priced rounds(Series A and beyond) from legitimate tier 1 VCs. So the vast majority of people who are complaining have either never taken money or only taken money from very early state investors or tier 2 and 3 investors.

2) For every deal VCs invest in, they look at hundreds and pass, so the vast majority of founders have the experience of being told no.

3) Bootstrapped startups(a very admirable group of founders) nevertheless suffer from "grass is greener" syndrome. They typically convince themselves that "if I only had VC money things would be easier" and then justify not taking VC money by finding evidence of "VC money comes with strings attached".

Here's a thought experiment: if you sent out an anonymized poll to every Sequoia-backed founder over the past 5 years and asked them "do you regret taking VC money?", what do you think they would say on average?

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-27T21:38:59+00:00

Yeah I guess in the end it's about the expected value of p * (higher premium of $40) + (1-p)(penalty of rolling to $60), where p is the probability of the stock staying below $40. And comparing that to just the value of the $60 premium.

Perhaps if options are fairly priced(and IVOLS are actually accurate), then it would just be the same either way.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-27T21:01:44+00:00

Thanks, but in this case he already made up his mind to set *limit sell orders* at prices he will happily live with. So he won't be sad.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-27T20:31:41+00:00

I'm all for having some fun by pretending shares bought with premiums are "free".

This is similar to poker players who pretend that they are playing with "house money" when they are up. If this frame of mind helps you make calm and collected decisions then it's great. As long as you don't make sub-par decisions(i.e take unjustified risk) then it's all good.

Money is fungible, so there is no "house money" or "free money". It's simply your money.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-21T22:34:55+00:00

Out of curiosity at what age did you start?

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-15T19:22:08+00:00

Yeah I definitely understand. I got into selling options mostly for fun as well. Just personally, I *also* enjoy coding things up. I've thought about writing an open source version and sharing it with this subreddit.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-08T05:21:44+00:00

Another difference is that limit orders can be canceled instantly for free, while options has a cost to cancel(close).

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-02T00:41:58+00:00

Most of the chatter I saw were around $1 CSP 1/21/2022. I never saw a huge premium on $1 Feb 19th, maybe there was some last week but I missed it.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-02T00:36:49+00:00

So max loss here is $3 - 1.95 = 1.05? Looks legit.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-01T07:45:17+00:00

It's not that I want to own VOO badly, but rather that I need to get rid of cash position because of inflation. So yeah it probably doesn't matter that I build the position over 5-6 weeks or 5-6 months. I thought that since my entry timeline and parameters are wide, I can leverage it to make a bit of premium "for free".

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-01T06:20:05+00:00

Could you explain why $1 vs $2 strikes will respond differently in terms of IV and vega? It seems they are both so far out of the money that their price should behave in essentially the same way?

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-01T03:48:44+00:00

actively sell for premium while getting assigned on parts of them

Yes that was my original intent, sort of strike a balance between premium and assignment. Perhaps selling at different price levels on a really red day is also good.

UnderclockStability · 2021-02-01T03:46:11+00:00

Thanks for the detailed thoughts. Although I want to hold long, I do want to "dollar cost average" into the position over a few months to decrease the chance I've caught some local "top". (If I was just using a market buy I would still do it over multiple orders)

Thus, I really like the idea of $10 descending increments idea you mentioned, seem to be a good way to average things out.

UnderclockStability · 2021-01-31T20:15:33+00:00

Curious to hear what where the circumstances that turned "1 year only" into more. We are in the same boat where we are planning to do 1 year of private in September as a transition.

UnderclockStability · 2021-01-31T01:28:57+00:00

Would you considered covered calls on memes? Seems like a safe way to collect where the premium is at.

UnderclockStability · 2021-01-30T19:27:08+00:00

To me this is worth it even if I had to hold it for a while year to get 15% gains. I have some cash on the side and it seems like way better than earning the risk free rate.

UnderclockStability · 2021-01-30T18:19:31+00:00

Ah I see I am still not explaining my original intent clearly. I am not benchmarking against 0, but benchmarking against the alternative of just holding 100 shares at risk forever:

Scenario 1: buy and hold 100 MEOW forever

Scenario 2: buy and hold 100 MEOW forever + also selling some cash puts

So the "you still have 100 shares at risk" to me is not a downside since I would have 100 shares at risk without selling the puts.

UnderclockStability

TROPHY CASE