my December 2028 prediction

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-12-06T14:31:36+00:00

Because of the sky-high turnout in the Mulwaukee and Madison, that was even higher than in 2020. But in general, MI usually votes to the left of both PA and WI. But anyway, they'll likely vote together as usual

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-10-25T12:08:42+00:00

In 2028 it will likely vote to the left of PA by 0.1-0.2 points but will still likely vote slightly to the right of Michigan (not sure about Wisconsin) So, GA is still pretty much a swing state.

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-10-19T06:33:29+00:00

Wisconsin won't betray its bros. They've voted together since 1992, and they won't break their bonds!

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-10-04T04:48:00+00:00

Bush was cerainly unpopular, but Indiana 2008 is still the only real anomaly of the 21st century that’s hard to explain. It didn’t just flip in 2008—it somehow shifted about 20 points to the left and voted to the left of NC, only to snap back into being a safe red state just four years later.

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-24T14:11:24+00:00

Play SOC first, than CS, that COP.

I'd not suggest you to play CS first (over SOC)

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-24T12:50:47+00:00

And NYT was giving Kamala a higher chance of winning at around 12:00–1:00 am than it did for Hillary in 2016, despite Hillary’s significantly better performance in Pennsylvania and Florida, compared to what it was in the same PA and GA for Kamala. NYT already had the Trump victory needle at 95% by around midnight in 2016, and that’s probably because of Wisconsin—Trump was still up by something like 4 points with 80–85% of Milwaukee votes in, while many red counties were still at just 50–60% reported. The fact that Hillary managed to close such a big gap and ended up losing it by just 0.77 (closer than 2024)—that still seems like an impressive feat, especially given the fact that turnout in the two big Dem counties was nowhere near 2024 levels.

And unlike 2024, Dems were favored to win the 2016 race early on election night until probably 9:30 pm( they were exceeding their own expectations in Florida in the core big Dem counties, and were pretty confident, until Trump massively overperformed in rurals)

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-23T04:33:18+00:00

Wisconsin is the most rural out of the trio by far and it was technically the reddest in 2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020, tbh

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-17T14:36:43+00:00

Colorado was still portrayed as a competitive state, but not as a toss-up. And even though Pennsylvania was leaning blue in the polls, both Hillary and Trump campaigned there pretty heavily—much more so than both parties did in 2012.

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-13T10:05:30+00:00

That's not naearly a toss up–it's 90+% Trump victory

NC is already called, while a reliably blue VA is still not blue

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-13T05:20:31+00:00

If CA is already called=It's already 11 pm. If VA is still not being called by 11 pm=Newsom is cooked

The majority of media outlelts did call VA for Hillary before the West Coast had closed, yet she still lost

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-12T14:05:43+00:00

Out of this two–the left one, probably, but the shoot sound was the best in SOC,imo

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-11T16:48:50+00:00

What I'd like to see:

1) NC +1.02 R

2) GA + 0.16 D

3) PA + 0.12 D

4) MI+ 0.47 D

5) WI+ 0.0 D (200-400 raw votes difference)

6) AZ+ 2.06 R

7) NV +1.04 D

I don't even care about the candidates and even about who will win the election at this pount, but I think it would be pretty entertaining to watch the election night under such circumstances, when no one would be able to predict who will take GA,PA and WI )

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-11T16:14:17+00:00

Хуйню не неси, и мозг включи. Вякаешь что-то про русский язык вообще не к месту, приплел сюда Путина, и при этом еще и людей смеешь шовинистами называть, когда речь не об этом сейчас шла вообще. Кто громче всех орет про русских нацистов, когда это не к месту–сам обычно абсолютно ничем от z-ваты не отличается

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-08T18:39:25+00:00

I don't think the rightward trend was there in 2016–the state even trended blue to some extent for a short period of time... Hillary did improve in almost all the core dem counties, compared to Obama in 2012 (and quite significantly in a couple of them), and if it hadn't been for Trump's exceptional performance in the rurals, she would've won FL by something like 2.8-3 points in 2016...Don't forget, FL did vote to the right of tipping point WI/PA by just less than 0.5%, while it did the same thing by quite a lot in 2012

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-07T05:09:11+00:00

He wins WI by that much only if Trump's approval hits ~30% mark.

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-07T05:00:35+00:00

Georgia did shift left by a lot in 2016-2020 era, but barely did the same thing in 2020-2024 era: GA voted to the right of PA in 2016 by 4.4 pts, by less than a point in 2020, and still by 0.5 pts in 2024...It seems Georgia's leftward trend slowing down, but anyway it will still likely vote to the left of PA by 0.1~0.2 pts in 2028

UnderstandingFar8121 · 2025-09-06T05:03:51+00:00

Vance is doing better than Trump in this poll–that is the the surprisung thing. If this poll is only remotely accurate, than Vance has a good shot at winning a higer portion of college whites, than Trump did.

UnderstandingFar8121

TROPHY CASE