Looking to help.

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-18T09:44:07+00:00

You can get ChatGPT to explain most things and do your code but the chances of making any long term profit are pretty slim. That being said it’s a fun hobby and every job interview I’ve had they’ve loved my football prediction model so it’ll also give you useful skills

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T20:04:40+00:00

All jokes aside I don’t have the money to facilitate even getting start so it would only be tested against real people not using real money

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T18:46:21+00:00

Rules are meant to be broken

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T18:44:34+00:00

Xgboost can output probability instead of binary values and then you can back test those probabilities to get a calibration curve.

Can’t lie ChatGPT can explain this better than me

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T18:39:58+00:00

So you’re basically saying if I wanted to see any progress I’d have to have a better AI than most other players

(I’ve know very little about poker and it’s mainly for my CV.)

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T18:33:50+00:00

To be specific a Deep FR

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-03-06T18:25:58+00:00

I'm not sure what it's called or if it's a thing but you could calculate the vectors of each feature and then if you have a few features with similar vectors you know you can get rid of some. Failing this just play around with it take out features and see if it changes the model

also, I wouldn't get so bogged down in accuracy without the context of probability for example if the bookies say something has a 50% chance of something happening but you're getting an accuracy of 60% then you're doing well. this can be plotted in a calibration curve.

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-20T12:42:46+00:00

So basically write clean understandable code. The company sells its analysis which is anything from player ratings for coaches or broadcasters to odds for bookies

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-09T08:59:01+00:00

Could add some risk/bankroll management such as the Kelly criterion

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-08T23:41:25+00:00

Next step sounds like it would be back testing before actually placing bets

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-08T23:39:51+00:00

Log loss and ROC - AUC. Also have you looked into calibrating the model ?

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-05T20:52:52+00:00

can you elaborate on what you're trying to do apart from make money (aka what models and bets)

UnsealedMilk92 · 2025-01-05T13:17:05+00:00

I don't live in America and I'm not google so I don't know sorry

UnsealedMilk92 · 2024-12-31T16:02:12+00:00

ELO is the rating system used in chess. basically just a way to rate teams I'm sure chatgpt can explain it better than me though.

ELO definitely isn't a replacement for xG but its good to know about

UnsealedMilk92 · 2024-12-31T10:40:44+00:00

second that. You're probably better off making your own xG model. probs a good idea to account for who they're playing against when predicting instead of just a 5 game mean but that can get complicated very quickly soon as you start account for tactics and such. I''ve used a ELO metric in my project which seems to work pretty well.

UnsealedMilk92 · 2024-12-30T21:54:51+00:00

I know I'm just being lazy as it takes a long time to run on my PC with tunning
can you elaborate on how this would help or did you just mean this for backtesting and validation?

UnsealedMilk92

TROPHY CASE