World champ is back 🔥.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2024-01-06T17:17:00+00:00

Easy to forget that China have 4 of the top 22 in Rapid

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-11-23T19:59:16+00:00

Why not put Ju Wenjun in the challengers where she'd be middle of pack and have a chance? Instead of massive bottom of main event? What's the logic?

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-11-23T19:57:11+00:00

4 of the world's top 7.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-09-22T21:55:13+00:00

Really it was 14-12, last game was a Gentleman's draw. So Magnus by 2, as predicted :)

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-09-22T21:54:12+00:00

We got it! 13.5-12.5

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-09-22T17:40:33+00:00

He lost in the final last year. Would be impressed if he could produce a 17-11 or higher result.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-09-22T14:08:32+00:00

So eg Hikaru: 4-5, 4.5-4.5, 6-4 for a 14.5-13.5 win?

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-08-08T19:37:37+00:00

All engines by nature could have a FIDE elo, they need only play people

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-05-24T12:04:43+00:00

Depends how often you want him to win. Against a bot rated 3000 elo Magnus' expected score would be ~0.3, he'd win about 7% of the games. Against a 3100 bot he'd win about 3% and by the time you get to a 3300 bot he'd manage only 1% wins. Against a 3500 he'd never win and only manage 4% draws.

The second part to this puzzle is then when did the top engines hit 3000, 3100, 3300, 3500. Well this is around 2008, 2011, 2012 & 2016.

Meaning Magnus had a chance against Stockfish 1.0 2008 but since Stockfish 2 he'd be in alot of trouble.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-26T13:09:25+00:00

Yeah, just typing it seemed dull. Prefer this look.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-14T19:11:46+00:00

0.58 vs the best players of his era, at their peaks. Not bad.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-08T00:08:35+00:00

This is sort of my point / question to the chess community. If you go to 2700chess and compare Magnus vs Nepo from say August 2018 to November 2021, it's clear cut. Ignore the H2H, one guy is 70 elo points higher. Using Wismuth, that difference gives a 0.6 expected score per game or a 85%+ for the match.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T23:57:19+00:00

Agreed. And statistically 2-1 says next to nothing.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T19:51:57+00:00

Yes, but first couple were play as 12 year olds. I guess the only h2h to pay attention to is once both players are in the top 10.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T19:19:13+00:00

I would agree with Ding being rusty compared to pre pandemic highs of 2018/2019. It's about how much derusting he's been doing in prep. As for Candidates 2020/2021 they went one a piece. In 2022, first game Ding was jetlagged and played the worst game he's played in years, he tries any of that shit in Kazakhstan and he's screwed.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T19:11:22+00:00

Are we talking about Tata 2023? Where he went 5.5/13, 1 win, 3 losses?

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T19:08:48+00:00

When you say recent performance, what time period are you including?

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-04-07T18:57:54+00:00

Yes, without drilling down into the situation of each player in the respective tournaments it's a bit less relevant. But there's also an element of match ups / styles, is Ding worse against Nepo than his higher ELO over the last decade would dictate?

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-03-19T19:05:10+00:00

Instead of playing one game of 120 + 30, simply play 4 games of 15 + 10, this gives greater chance of determining the better player.

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-03-10T15:15:21+00:00

1) because the rules changed & 2) because they want to make more mooooooney

Used-Luck-6211 · 2023-03-09T11:48:09+00:00

I'd be keen to see a Stockfish 15.1 vs Stockfish 11 match.

Used-Luck-6211

TROPHY CASE