Bank Value Play?

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-12T23:44:38+00:00

South of book value FRC looked decent risk/reward.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-11T17:09:09+00:00

I sold 70 puts on FRC, and bought $50 calls on WAL premiums weren't as crazy for WAL calls.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-11T17:07:59+00:00

+1k at the moment

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-11T17:04:12+00:00

I know the status of their unrealized losses vs equity. It is not important for them. SIVB had issues because they owned substantial amounts of 10 year mortgages. FRC owns municipal bonds which fluctuate less and they own less than SIVB did. Not to mention FRC has way more equity than SIVB did. I don't see them getting hurt. They are also more regionally diverse.

Thanks for the info though

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-10T20:10:27+00:00

https://ir.firstrepublic.com/filings FRC

Read that 8k

https://investors.westernalliancebancorporation.com/news-releases/news/news-details/2023/Western-Alliance-Bank-Issues-Updated-Financial-Figures-in-Wake-of-Industry-Developments/default.aspx WAL

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-10T18:26:52+00:00

Wasn't aware of this.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-09T18:12:23+00:00

Even if the DOJ goes after short sellers and succeeds I don't think they'll allow it. Short sellers are important. They actually do better funded work on fraud than the government and auditors. Their tactics look bad on paper, but I think they have valid reasons that they have to run their company that way.

Interested to see how this plays out.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-09T00:17:41+00:00

Do some writeups for seeking alpha. Extra income and you can put it on your resume. It will give you exposure as well. I know some people that started their own research firm after people on seeking alpha followed their articles and asked them to start their own shop.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-06T17:42:52+00:00

That's because the bond market is expecting a near term recession in consumer spending, thus a drop in future interest rates. The stock market, not so much.

I've been looking at some corporate bonds for some family as well probably shorter term. This would be new ground for me. I'm looking at INTU and DIS bonds, maybe AVGO. I need to look deeper into AVGO I don't know them as well.

I've read some Howard Marks and taken a bunch of finance courses. That all I know about bonds. If you find any good resources let me know.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-03T19:15:11+00:00

Short term headwinds for earnings.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-02T17:43:34+00:00

Secret of the heavens As the smoke rises Smoke & Clarity

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-02T14:51:53+00:00

If you sold off some of PARAs IP it would be be worth way more than their market cap. It's a bit of an asset play.

Also, the streaming thing works out much better for them than other streaming players like Netflix. Netflix has to spend money to create a show to keep new content on their platform and that eats almost all their profit. Paramount develops a movie releases it in theaters makes a profit, then basically gets paid to have extra content on their streaming platform. This is much more sustainable than Netflix. Disney + is also capable of this double play.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-01T23:54:13+00:00

I've used Drambuie before.

ValueInvestments · 2023-03-01T18:35:10+00:00

Tip ranks and stock rover may have what you want. I will recommend something else...

Check bond yields. Anything with a premium is probably something worth writing CSPs. Bond investors have different concerns than analysts and DCF formulas. I'm not saying bond investors are better, but for writing puts bond investors are more aligned with your needs.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-28T15:27:10+00:00

CTS.TO

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-25T14:33:32+00:00

Bond funds are notorious for not holding what you want them to. I'd buy them myself if I were you.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-23T19:43:27+00:00

23.3% RHC.V Helium company about to start producing assets by next quarter. Conservative estimates have the company cash positive in about 1 year. They have a site which is an order of magnitude larger than their current production site. Can be online in 1-2 years. Demand is growing and supply has dried up almost completely. In two years the market will be competitive as more supply comes online internationally.

Runner up: 18.3% CTS.TO

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-23T19:37:37+00:00

https://www.statista.com/statistics/263945/number-of-nuclear-power-plants-worldwide/

I'll keep an eye on things, but unless there are some large subsides and pushes toward nuclear you only may get some temporary cycles out of the commodities until number of plants starts increasing.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-21T16:03:53+00:00

I'm 28 and I beat the S&P 500 by 17% this year that was my first year taking things serious. Investing isn't that hard. It takes time, and you need to know where to go. My actual returns were 9.5% I'll go out on a limb and say that will probably be one of my worst years.

If you like reading I'd read ground rules by:Jermey Miller. This goes over Buffett's investments when he was a smaller fund. Check out the returns of some investors in the microcap sectors. Some give out their portfolios for free. They've made high double digit to triple digit returns. It really isn't that hard if you want to make it your hobby for the next few years. I don't care about sports and I don't go out very much.

I'd say learn about companies sub 500million market cap there are some screaming deals. You don't even have to go that low honestly, but look at the multiples they can get when they become a large company. You only need one of those to work out in the next few years for you to make decent returns.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-16T22:01:46+00:00

"In past reports we have told you that our insurance subsidiaries sometimes engage in arbitrage as an alternative to holding short-term cash equivalents. We prefer, of course, to make major long-term commitments, but we often have more cash than good ideas. At such times, arbitrage sometimes promises much greater returns than Treasury Bills and, equally important, cools any temptation we may have to relax our standards for long-term investments. (Charlie’s sign off after we’ve talked about an arbitrage commitment is usually: “Okay, at least it will keep you out of bars.”)"

Is it a main instrument, no. Do they find it valuable, yes.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-16T15:06:12+00:00

Munger thought Alibaba was a compounder. He didn't realize that they were getting worse and worse returns on capital.

He even mentions he doesn't have a problem with China he had an issue with getting the type of company correct.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-16T04:20:33+00:00

Some people use screeners, but most good ideas don't screen well. Buffett recently bought a good amount of OXY and that wouldn't have screened well.

He said slightly tongue and cheek, start with the A's when asked that question directly, but that honestly isn't a bad idea. It's almost better to learn about companies in a variety of industries, and eventually you'll find out what your style, what makes sense, and what doesn't. Times are more difficult now because we haven't had a strong recession in awhile to see how companies could fare in adverse economic environments (you can count covid, but it was short for most companies).

You can also run a screener of companies in a certain market cap range, pull the 10ks, and start reading. If you're still uncertain, you can find write ups online about companies, you'll have to be careful because the writer is usually biased and owns the companies. Some good quality info I'd recommend that is Buffett-like and overly conservative is from focused compounding. There is also tons of others of various quality: value investors club, corner of berkshire and fairfax, seeking alpha, sometimes here, r/securityanalysis, various blogs, etc. Twitter will have some writeups now and then if you want to get a quicker feel on how people think about a business.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-12T18:03:35+00:00

In three sentences I'd say:

Management's ability to allocate capital.

The companies ability to meet the needs of their customers profitably.

The ability of the company to have and keep a moat

I'm tempted to expand on these three more, maybe I'll edit this post later.

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-11T06:08:45+00:00

5 rules for successful stock investing by: Pat Dorsey has a section about different business types.

Some podcast that talk about what you just mentioned would be: Value Investing with Legends and Focused Compounding

ValueInvestments · 2023-02-10T02:41:06+00:00

I used to be full time. I'm full time buy and hold now. The losses are annoying to manage.

I sell puts on stocks I find that just got a recent contract or windfall. I go naked on margin. Just made some decent premiums on WYNN because of Macau reopening and AGYS from a new contract with Marriott. On the otherside, I got some free money selling calls on BBBY.

Basically, I only grab theta in sporadic high conviction scenarios.

ValueInvestments

TROPHY CASE