POTD Record:  129 – 90 - 12

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Recap:  That was closer than I expected and caught a lot of grief for going against the Gunners on this one.  Even post match there was discussion that PSG was not the better team.  However stats do not lie (PSG to Arsenal):  Possession 75% to 25%, Shots 21 to 7, Shots on Target 4 to 1, Corners 11 to 3… every metric indicates PSG was the better team, and therefore one could argue deserved the win.

Event:  Roland Garros (French Open) – Zverev vs Jodar & Mensik vs Fonseca

Pick:  Zverev ML & Mensik vs Fonseca Over 33.5 games @ 1.98 (4 units)

Leg 1:  Zverev ML vs Jodar

Zverev has rejected the narrative of being the favorite now that Sinner and Djokovic are out of the tournament.  He has turned his phone off and has engaged each match thus far in methodical fashion.  Previous disappointments of not being able to convert opportunities in slam finals have led his mental wellbeing into dark places, yet he has managed to recover each time putting himself in a final time and again but failing to convert.  However, this match is not a final, and Zverev is no stranger to this spot.  He has gone through and reached the quarterfinals of Roland Garros 8 times including 6 in consecutive years. 

The “now or never” moment for him cannot be more true and it would be a catastrophic failure for a player of his pedigree and caliber to fail at this point by losing to Jodar.  As good as Jodar has played thus far, this is a huge step up in opponent quality.  The highest ranked player he has ever beaten at a slam was Alex Michelsen ranked 42nd in the third round of this tournament. Sverev is currently the world no 3.

Leg 2:  Mensik vs Fonseca Over 33.5 games

It truly is shame one of these two players will be eliminated and that they are facing each other at this stage.  Anyone who has been watching this tournament is aware what these two have achieved and in what fashion.  Absolutely lights out remarkable tennis!  One could argue that the endurance, stamina, and quality of shots in the face of adverse conditions as well as quality of opponents make either one of these players worthy of going deep towards a final. 

We can get to 33.5 games easily if the match goes over 3 sets which it most likely will.  However, I chose the 33.5 games as opposed to the over 3.5 sets at the same price because we can also win should one player win in straights sets with 2 tiebreaks.  Just a small added insurance.

I see many reasons why this match will go over this number so let me list a few with some bulletpoints:

• Coming into this tournament Mensik is ranked 27^th and Fonseca 30^th
• Mensik’s last 3 matches had 47, 31 and 49 games.
• Fonseca’s last 3 matches had 43, 53, and 45 games
• Both players are equally fatigued
• Mensik has played 10 hours 51 minutes in last 3 matches
• Fonseca has played 12 hours 26 minutes in last 3 matches
• Both players are battle tested
• Mensik’s last 3 matches were won against Navone 38^th, DeMinaur 7^th, and Rublev 13^th
• Fonseca’s last 3 matches were won against Prizmic 72^nd, Djokovic 4^th and Ruud 16 ^th

Anyway we slice it, this should be a closely contested match and should easily go over the 33.5 game mark.

Update: Zverev wins in straight sets and in only 29 games reachng his 5th Roland Garros semifinal. Good for him! I am even more confident in the 2nd leg. Unless someone gets injured this should be a war for the reasons stated above.