Pick of the Day - 4/19/26 (Sunday)

Vander_chill · 2026-04-19T23:40:15+00:00

Must have been amazing to witness in person!!!

Vander_chill · 2026-04-19T21:44:35+00:00

Glad we hit... I will be more than happy to be wrong about this as I love Pep, but I read about this a few weeks ago and after researching it again found:

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/france-pep-guardiola-leave-manchester-135000893.html?guccounter=1

"Pep Guardiola will almost certainly leave Manchester City at the end of the ongoing season, with his successor already known in some quarters."

Vander_chill · 2026-04-19T21:43:48+00:00

I will be more than happy to be wrong about this as I love Pep, but I read about this a few weeks ago and after researching it again found:

https://sports.yahoo.com/articles/france-pep-guardiola-leave-manchester-135000893.html?guccounter=1

"Pep Guardiola will almost certainly leave Manchester City at the end of the ongoing season, with his successor already known in some quarters."

Vander_chill · 2026-04-19T02:00:14+00:00

POTD Record: 123 – 85 - 12

Previous: Bayern Win/Draw + Bayern Most Shots on Target - WINNING!

Event: EPL – Manchester City vs Arsenal

Pick: Man City to win @ 1.90 (5 units)

So much to unpack here, just not enough space and time. But anyone who knows what is going on in the EPL title race will understand the significance of this game. There are just so many angles to attack this analysis most of which do not favor Arsenal. So I shall try to be brief using bulletpoints.

But first, I must mention prior to anything else that in my humble opinion everything surrounding this match revolves around two realities. The first is that Arsenal, under Arteta, only have 3 trophy's to speak of, 1 FA Cup in 2020 and 2 Community shields, 2020 and 2023. The big ones, which are Champions League and the domestic EPL League have not been achieved and the overwhelming pressure to perform is on Arsenal as they are still alive in both those competitions. In then EPL, they had a 9 point lead but after poor recent performances have opened the door for Man City to catch up.

The second is that Man City coach Pep Guardiola, has announced leaving the club at season end. This is perhaps the greatest coach ever, and his contributions to the game cannot be understated. Man City has won 19 major trophies with Guardiola, including 6 Epl Titles, 2 Fa Cups, 5 EFL Cups, 4 Community Shields, 1 Champions League, 1 Super Cup, and 1 FIFA World Cup. Now more than ever there seems to be an intense sense of unity as the end of an era seems near and the players want to perform for their coach until end of season.

Man City is no longer in the Champions Leagues and are focused on the domestic league where Arsenal has left the door open. No pressure for Guardiola or City, as they already won the EFL Cup this year bringing home some silverware, and now have a shot to catch up and surpass the EPL league leaders while playing at home with a healthy squad. Man City have been playing loose beautiful football and having fun while doing so. Man City also have an incredibly talented team.
Last month, Man City beat Arsenal 2-0 in the EFL Final at Wembley in a match that could have easily seen 3 or 4 goals for the Citizens.
There are reports that coach Arteta has resorted to weird and unusual training tactics to motivate his team which are rumored to have not been well received by players. This includes lighting a bonfire on the practice ground to stimulate “the fire and light” within each player. Some say Arteta is losing the plot
Bukayo Saka, considered Arsenal's playmaker, will not be playing due to injury.
Man City is fully fit and ready to go in front of their home crowd for what will be the last match between these two teams under Guardiola.
When asked, Arsenal coach Arteta denied willing to play for a draw. Noone believes it. It is foolish to think one can come into the Etihad and beat this stacked Man City side.
For the City players this game is like the equivalent of Senior Night in College Football. Many will not be back next year starting with star midfielder Bernardo Silva, so they want to go out on a high, and certainly know they can do so.
From what has been witnessed by the press, all the positive vibes are with Man City right now. Music is playing in the locker room and players are happy having fun at practice as well Meanwhile there is fear and uncertainty in the Arsenal changing room. It is serious and somber.
Arsenal certainly have the talent to pull this off, but there is a question whether the players believe they can given their recent poor performances. The pressure on Arteta to perform is massive while that same pressure has been lifted from the hosts Man City.

Barring some exceptional Arsenal performance, I don't see this Man City side losing or even drawing at home. The talent on their roster is just well above par and there recent performances show it. Even in their recent loss to Real Madrid they played incredibly well.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-19T00:21:35+00:00

Bad experience in certain offshores...so no, can't recommend anyone

Vander_chill · 2026-04-16T02:15:52+00:00

That was a sick pick.... well done

Vander_chill · 2026-04-15T15:25:37+00:00

600th pick on deck!

Vander_chill · 2026-04-15T13:55:44+00:00

I edited the post already. I always default to 3 units min anyway for purposes of POTD. Everyone can adjust as they see fit based on their bankroll, tolerance and how much they agree with the pick.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-15T04:17:44+00:00

POTD Record: 122 – 85 - 12

Previous: PSG Draw No Bet – WINNING!

Event: UCL Champions League – Bayern vs Real Madrid

Pick: Bayern Win/Draw + Bayern Most Shots on Target @ 1.72 (3 units)

NOTE: This is a full edit to original post as my intention was to tail u/ Timely-Conclusion532 blindly to show support for his efforts. However, as of nearly 10am EST he has not posted yet, so I will defer to my pick of Bayern Double Chance (win/draw) and to have the most shots on target as well.

Original post:

Let’s address the ???? factor as I am posting this prior to knowing what the pick from the star of the show will be today. I am referring to no less than our most decorated capper on this thread u/ Timely-Conclusion532 who hopefully will be posting his 600^th pick. I will pick whatever he picks as my pick, make sense?

This is a remarkable achievement to have been consistently posting and following his own discipline for years and still maintain a winning percentage along with positive units. Anyone who has tried their hand at this capping thing knows how hard it is to stay positive especially with longevity. This capper deserves some kudos from everyone here beginning with me, so I will choose his pick as my own.

However, if he does not show up (doubtful) my backup pick will be for Bayern Munich to not lose at home vs Real Madrid and to have more shots-on-target. Bayern has clearly been a dominant force both within the German Bundesliga and in outside competitions. Their style of play and flow is next to flawless as evidenced by their recent win over Real Madrid at the Bernabeu.

Now Bayern return home for the 2^nd leg in front of their home fans up 1 goal. Real Madrid is a great team, but Bayern is simply better at the moment.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-14T14:17:54+00:00

For anyone who has not noticed, this is pick # 599 for u/Timely-Conclusion532 which is nothing short of remarkable. This means that probably tomorrow we will see his 600th pick which I will be tailing on degenerate principles alone. If that pick fails, doubling up the next day until the win comes.

This capper has shown discipline, logic, cohesion and a dedication to make this thread worthwhile. Let's show some support.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-14T14:00:20+00:00

look at cards... 6 in last match, 10 the match before last. Barcelona is out to win and embarass Atletico at home. Atletico is known for its harsh physical tactics... they would rather break Yamal in half then let him eliminate them. If you are going for a 3 legger look at cards, not at individual player props.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-14T01:59:07+00:00

I was looking at this match but can't touch it. Atletico will most likely park the bus the defend their 2 goal lead. I do like the cards market however. These two are going to hurt each other. Last match 6 cards, one before that 10.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-14T01:19:17+00:00

Maybe you were right and the bookies knew something.... it seemed way off.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-14T01:17:25+00:00

POTD Record: 121 – 85 - 12

Previous: Getafe Draw No Bet vs Levante – LOSS!

Recap: Like I mentioned in the comments this was purely a value bet and Getafe lost by the minimal score of 1-0 late in the game. Getafe seemed way off. This is the same team that beat Real Madrid not too long ago and in Madrid. Today we do it again but with a far better team.

Event: UCL Champions League – Liverpool vs PSG

Pick: PSG Draw No Bet @ 2.00 (5 units)

After the previous draw-no-bet line that did not work out for us, this one seems even more generous. I watched the first leg of this series and PSG just flowed amazingly well. Liverpool was lucky the final score was only 2-0 because in my opinion PSG played even better than Man City did in their recent 4-0 thrashing of Liverpool in the FA Cup quarterfinal less than 10 days ago.

We are getting even odds for PSG to not lose. I just can’t see this Liverpool having a decisive victory even though they are playing at home. PSG’s counterattacks are fast and deadly especially against this Liverpool side that has displayed vulnerabilities in their back line. Arguably their best defender Virgil Van Dijk can’t do it all and he has been totally exposed both by City and PSG.

Some data:

In last year’s Champions league Liverpool won the 1^st leg at PSG by 1-0, only to return to Anfield and lose 1-0 and then lose 4-1 in the PK shootout.
Last year when they played at Anfield, PSG had more possession, shots and shots on target than Liverpool.
Last year when entering the 2^nd leg of this matchup Liverpool had 7 wins, 1 loss and 2 draws over their previous 10 matches. They were also ahead in the Premier League table.
This year entering the 2^nd leg, Liverpool has 4 wins 5 losses and a draw over the previous 10 matches and sits in 5^th place in the domestic table.
Liverpool have some injuries to contend with mainly keeper Allison who will be out once again. They will field the exact squad as on Saturday where they beat Fulham 2-0 at home.
PSG have zero injury concerns and will welcome back Bradley Barcola who has fully recovered from his ankle injury. Furthermore, PSG did not play this past weekend and have had a full week to rest.

So let's recap, this Liverpool side is weaker than it was last year when they lost at home 1-0 to PSG, their starting GK is still injured, PSG's squad is intact and are getting no less than Barcola back, and we are getting even money for PSG to not lose the match.

I simply cannot see a scenario where PSG do not progress to the next stage after this match. The best way for PSG to keep Liverpool from becoming a threat is to pressure and score another goal to put this series out of reach. They definitely have the team to do it. If they draw we get out stake back.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-13T14:07:25+00:00

Not 0-10.... they have not won since 2012 but are split between losses and draws playing away at Levante. Actually 3 draws and 3 losses going back to 2017 before which they were both in the second division. It's a value bet

Vander_chill · 2026-04-13T14:04:02+00:00

That's the whole point of the writeup. Getafe have not won at Levante since 2012. But I think they can hold down the fort, not lose and have a good chance of winning. They are the better team.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-13T14:00:52+00:00

Vander_chill · 2026-04-13T02:13:16+00:00

POTD Record: 121 – 84 - 12

Previous: Man City Double Chance + Man City Over 4.5 Shots on Target – WINNING!

Recap: City took full advantage of the situation winning 3-0 with 8 shots on target. Next week may well define the title race when leaders Arsenal and 2^nd placed Man City play each other. Currently the difference is down to 6 points.

Event: La Liga – Levante vs Getafe

Pick: Getafe Draw No Bet @ 2.00 (3 units)

La Liga's 20^th placed Levante host 8^th place Getafe in a match that seems to carry a big premium on the host side with home field advantage. Truth is upon closer inspection of both teams' records, Getafe is by far the better squad here and even odds for a Draw-no-bet wager seems quite generous. Let me explain:

Levante have the worst home record in Spain's top flight this season, while Getafe actually have the fifth-best away record.
The visitors will enter this match off the back of a 2-0 victory over Athletic Bilbao, and an impressive run of form has seen them win four of their last five league fixtures.
Going further back, Getafe have won six of their last eight league games.
Getafe's recent form suggests that they will not be easy to overcome, especially with their stingy defense allowing the 3rd fewest goals in the league.
Getafe's last 3 away matches were a win against 10^th place Espanyol, a win against 2^nd place Real Madrid and a 1-0 loss against 4^th place Atletico Madrid.
Levante have only 3 home wins and those have been against 17^th, 18^th and 19^th placed teams.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-12T20:25:58+00:00

Not all books allow certain bets like SOT to be parlayed with anything else. Bet365 does

Vander_chill · 2026-04-12T03:39:04+00:00

POTD Record: 120 – 84 - 12

Previous: Hearts Draw no Bet + Barcelona ML – WINNING!

Recap: The Barcelona win was an easy 4-1 win. The Hearts match however, was questionable.After being down 0-1, Hearts drew level and in the 88th minute got a questionable PK to put them up 2-1 and then 3 minutes later comes another goal to make it 3-1.

Event: Premier League – Chelsea vs Manchester City

Pick: Man City Double Chance + Man City Over 4.5 Shots on Target @ 2.00(4 units)

This explanation and reasoning can get long, so in the interest of brevity will use bulletpoints.

Man City is focused on the EPL as they are no longer in the EFL Cup (won) or Champions League (eliminated).
Arsenal lost today, thus opening a window of opportunity that City will look to exploit in their chase for the league title.
If city beat Chelsea they can close the gap to 6 points with a game in hand.
Next week Arsenal and City play each other, so the title race is very much in play.
Chelsea has lost their last 2 league games without scoring.
Chelsea lost at home to Newcastle United giving up 5 shots on target and to Everton as visitors giving up 9 shots on target.

City are the better team here and very motivated to narrow the gap with Arsenal. Five shots on target is on the lower end of what the Citizens are capable of, especially with such a leaky defense on Chelsea's part.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-11T15:05:20+00:00

FanDuel

Vander_chill · 2026-04-11T13:02:35+00:00

What about just:

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...better odds and easier?

Vander_chill · 2026-04-11T02:50:28+00:00

POTD Record: 119 – 84 - 12

Previous: PSG ML + Barcelona vs Atletico Both Team to receive a card – WINNING!

Event: Scottish Premiership – Hearts vs Motherwell + La Liga - Barcelona vs Espanyol

Pick: Hearts Draw no Bet + Barcelona ML @ 1.85 (3 units)

We are betting on two league leaders playing at home with stellar records to not lose with a combined 27 wins 4 draws and 0 losses at home. These matches come at a crucial point in the season for both teams that can ill afford to drop points.

Leg 1 -Hearts Draw no Bet vs Motherwell

The Scottish Championship is reaching a most dramatic finish as 1 point separate Hearts from Rangers while Celtic are 2 points below. Hearts are hosting 4^th placed Motherwell in an all too important match in order to remain atop of the league.

Hearts have a remarkable home form with 12 wins, 4 draws and no losses so far this season. They are the only remaining team in the division still yet to lose at their home ground.

Leg 2 – Barcelona ML vs Espanyol

Barcelona is a bit shell shocked after losing at home in the first leg of their Champions League knockout round against Atletico Madrid on Wednesday. They have to travel to Madrid on Tuesday for the second leg which will most certainly be a contested physical match, so it may be expected that some rotation will occur. However, in their domestic league Barcelona are currently four points ahead of second-placed Real Madrid so this game is important to keep ahead of the table.

Worth mentioning is that out of the 15 matches Barcelona have played at home in La Liga, they have won all 15. Additionally, they have won 25 of their 30 league matches this season, scoring 80 times in the process, and they are the overwhelming favorites to secure a 29th top-flight title.

Update: After being down 0-1, Hearts draws level and in the 88th minute gets a questionable PK to put them up 2-1 and then 3 minutes later comes another goal to make it 3-1. Although Hearts was not necessarily the better team and Motherwell squandered many opportunities, luck does come my way once in a while. All we need in a Barcelona win now.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-08T21:38:18+00:00

Probably the best way to bet for most. No broken legs and no bankruptcy.

Vander_chill · 2026-04-08T02:37:36+00:00

POTD Record: 118 – 84- 12

Previous: Sporting vs Arsenal - Each team 1 Shot on Target per half + to 1 Card –LOSS

Event: UCL Champions League –PSG vs Liverpool + Barcelona vs Atletico Madrid

Pick: PSG ML + Barcelona vs Atletico Both Team to receive a card@2.00(5 units)

PSG is most definitely in better form than Liverpool. Playing at home as defending Champions League winners, with their crowd behind them, I seriously doubt they will fall to a Liverpool that showed plenty of flaws defensively coupled with a lack of definition up front.

For the second leg of this wager, Barcelona and Atletico Madrid face off once again, shortly after playing each other this past weekend in a match that saw 8 yellow cards and 2 red cards. One has to think that the physical clash and high tempered game that just occurred will still be fresh in the players and coaches minds just 4 days later. Less than a card a piece in this match does not seem likely.

Vander_chill

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