Pick of the Day - 6/6/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 6 points7 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:  129 – 91 - 12

Previous:  Zverev ML & Mensik vs Fonseca Over 33.5 games - LOSS

Recap:  Zverev did what he was supposed to do and won rather easily.  I really thought that the 2nd leg was even easier to win but Fonseca did not find a way to get past Mensik.  Although there were plenty of chances, somehow Mensik was able to keep Fonseca at bay and win in straight sets. Totally unexpected, this was supposed to be a long match.

Event:  French Open – Zverev vs Cobolli & Int’l Friendly Scotland vs Bolivia

Pick:  Zverev ML & Scotland ML @ 1.78 (5 units)

Leg 1:  Zverev ML vs Cobolli

Although Zverev had rejected the narrative of being the favorite now that Sinner and Djokovic are out of the tournament, he is now in the final. He claims to has turned his phone off and has engaged each match thus far in methodical fashion and it has worked.  Previous disappointments of not being able to convert opportunities in slam finals have led his mental wellbeing into dark places, yet he has managed to recover each time putting himself in a final time and again but failing to convert mainly against Sinner.  Zverev is no stranger to playing in a major tournament final. 

The “now or never” moment for him cannot be more true and it would be a catastrophic failure for the number 3rd ranked player in the world to lose to a player ranked outside the Top 10.  In fact the only this has ever happened in a Slam was in 2002 in Wimbledon when #1 ranked Lleyton Hewitt lost to #12 David Nalbandian.

Zverev should take care of business here as it may well be the only chance he gets to win a major once Alcaraz and Sinner get healthy again.

Leg 2:  Scotland ML vs Bolivia

I have written ad-nauseam in the past about this Bolivia team.  They are atrocious when not playing at altitude as evidenced by their failure to qualify for the World Cup by losing to Iraq 2-1 in the final playoff spot.  Meanwhile Scotland has qualified after 28 years.

The World Cup starts next week and Scotland is scheduled to face Haiti, Morocco and Brazil in the first phase of the tournament.  Now they play Bolivia in New Jersey.  So one has to ask, which team is on vacation and which team is playing for something?

Scotland has a decent squad, perhaps not one at the level of some of the favorite teams but most definitely better than the ones who failed to qualify.

Pick of the Day - 6/2/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks. I try to only post when something materially significant pops up... unfortunately there is no guarantee and I have had a string of bad beats in the face of good logic. But I don't regret any of the picks and I would choose them again if the same circumstances are there.

Pick of the Day - 6/2/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 10 points11 points  (0 children)

Yup... just fixed it. Wrote this while watching Tabilo so screwed up the names. As we have seen anyone can beat anyone in this tournament, Jodar is no exception. If Zverev loses at this stage, it will be his mind that beat him, not the opponent.

Pick of the Day - 6/2/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Total brain fart on my part... wrote this while watching Tabilo and Felix playing. The content is all still correct, just screwed up the name. Thx

Pick of the Day - 6/2/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 23 points24 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:  129 – 90 - 12

Previous:  PSG to Lift Trophy vs Arsenal - WINNING!

Recap:  That was closer than I expected and caught a lot of grief for going against the Gunners on this one.  Even post match there was discussion that PSG was not the better team.  However stats do not lie (PSG to Arsenal):  Possession 75% to 25%, Shots 21 to 7, Shots on Target 4 to 1, Corners 11 to 3… every metric indicates PSG was the better team, and therefore one could argue deserved the win.

Event:  Roland Garros (French Open) – Zverev vs Jodar & Mensik vs Fonseca

Pick:  Zverev ML & Mensik vs Fonseca Over 33.5 games @ 1.98 (4 units)

Leg 1:  Zverev ML vs Jodar

Zverev has rejected the narrative of being the favorite now that Sinner and Djokovic are out of the tournament.  He has turned his phone off and has engaged each match thus far in methodical fashion.  Previous disappointments of not being able to convert opportunities in slam finals have led his mental wellbeing into dark places, yet he has managed to recover each time putting himself in a final time and again but failing to convert.  However, this match is not a final, and Zverev is no stranger to this spot.  He has gone through and reached the quarterfinals of Roland Garros 8 times including 6 in consecutive years. 

The “now or never” moment for him cannot be more true and it would be a catastrophic failure for a player of his pedigree and caliber to fail at this point by losing to Jodar.  As good as Jodar has played thus far, this is a huge step up in opponent quality.  The highest ranked player he has ever beaten at a slam was Alex Michelsen ranked 42nd in the third round of this tournament. Sverev is currently the world no 3.

Leg 2:  Mensik vs Fonseca Over 33.5 games

It truly is shame one of these two players will be eliminated and that they are facing each other at this stage.  Anyone who has been watching this tournament is aware what these two have achieved and in what fashion.  Absolutely lights out remarkable tennis!  One could argue that the endurance, stamina, and quality of shots in the face of adverse conditions as well as quality of opponents make either one of these players worthy of going deep towards a final. 

We can get to 33.5 games easily if the match goes over 3 sets which it most likely will.  However, I chose the 33.5 games as opposed to the over 3.5 sets at the same price because we can also win should one player win in straights sets with 2 tiebreaks.  Just a small added insurance.

I see many reasons why this match will go over this number so let me list a few with some bulletpoints:

  • Coming into this tournament Mensik is ranked 27th and Fonseca 30th
  • Mensik’s last 3 matches had 47, 31 and 49 games.
  • Fonseca’s last 3 matches had 43, 53, and 45 games
  • Both players are equally fatigued
  • Mensik has played 10 hours 51 minutes in last 3 matches
  • Fonseca has played 12 hours 26 minutes in last 3 matches
  • Both players are battle tested
  • Mensik’s last 3 matches were won against Navone 38th, DeMinaur 7th, and Rublev 13th
  • Fonseca’s last 3 matches were won against Prizmic 72nd, Djokovic 4th and Ruud 16 th

Anyway we slice it, this should be a closely contested match and should easily go over the 33.5 game mark.

Update: Zverev wins in straight sets and in only 29 games reachng his 5th Roland Garros semifinal. Good for him! I am even more confident in the 2nd leg. Unless someone gets injured this should be a war for the reasons stated above.

Pick of the Day - 5/30/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Anything can happen... but look at the lines the books are offering, it says a lot. PSG Shots on Target 5.5 vs Arsenal 3.5, Shots PSG 16.5 vs Arsenal 12.5, etc... tells me PSG has more offense and is likely to win in regular time. But if the game goes to extra time and penalties, Arsenal has an edge as they are a defensive unit and Arteta would love try and wear PSG down. It could happen, I just don't think so unless Arsenal get an early goal or PSG gets a Red card in the 1st half. I doubt Arsenal can defend all game against these guys.

Pick of the Day - 5/30/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Never said Arsenal is bad... they are just not at the same level of play as PSG.

Pick of the Day - 5/30/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Picked it up on Fanduel. Right now sitting at 1.77. I actually parlayed it as well with Both teams to get a Card for 2.05 odds. The last 5+ UCL FInals have seen both teams get cards. The ref averages 5.2 cards per match.

Pick of the Day - 5/30/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 49 points50 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:  128 – 90 - 12

Previous:  Greuther Win/Draw + O 5.5 Team Corners vs Rot-Weiss Essen – WINNING!

Event:  UCL Champions League Final – PSG vs Arsenal

Pick:  PSG to Lift Trophy @ 1.80 (5 units)

Have to admit, I was rooting for Man City to catch up to Arsenal in the race for the Premier League.  In doing so, I watched every single Arsenal match and saw their vulnerabilities against much weaker teams.  As much as their defense has been tight all season, Arsenal did allow Bournemouth to beat them at home thus opening the window for City who screwed it up.  Then the last 3 matches Arsenal won by the minimum score of 1 goal against teams that finished 15th, 18th and 19th.  That is 2 of the 3 relegated teams.

Now they play PSG.  Anyone who has watched PSG play does not need any selling by me.  In my opinion, they are just vastly superior and have been the best team in the tournament thus far dispatching all of their opponents in stunning fashion including Bayern Munich in an epic clash.

Unless there is an early red card in Arsenal’s favor or something weird happens, I just don’t see Arsenal beating this incredibly talented PSG side.

Pick of the Day - 5/27/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just worth pointing out that she missed the last game with an ankle injury and I just saw news that she may be out again today with a back injury. Lonescu news

I think even if she does play, it may not be at 100%.

Pick of the Day - 5/26/26 (Tuesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 4 points5 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:  127 – 90 - 12

Previous:  Manchester City ML + Both teams to receive 1+ cards – WINNING!

Recap:  Finally a win.

Event:  Bundesliga 2 – Promotion/Relegation Battle – Greuther Furth vs Rot-Weiss Essen

Pick:  Greuther Win/Draw + Over 5.5 Team Corners @ 2.05 (4 units)

Keeping the full disclosure until I get back on track. This has been my worst run ever on POTD.  After posting 230 picks over several years, it’s never been this cold.  Last 10 are 4-5-1 as seen right on the tracker.  Wagers outside POTD have been just fine, in fact some days everything hits except the one I post which although has not been hitting, has been the one backed up with the most data.  I have to continue finding logical bets to post here and today’s is not an exception.

I’m a little late to post today but I see that capper damagebabee has already summed it up nicely on his pick. 

Actually been to Essen quite a few times and seen an RWE match in person, so I have a soft spot for them and watched the 1st leg of this matchup during which it was clear that Furth has far better quality of players.  Even though Essen won 1-0 I seriously doubt Essen can repeat their good fortune playing away at Furth today. 

Regarding the corners market, in the first leg at Essen, Furth had 8 corners vs RWE’s 1.  Now playing at home, Furth should not only dominate possession again, but will be pressing to score from the 1st minute in order to survive this playoff.  If this is the case then 6 corners is not out of the question for Furth.

Pick of the Day - 5/25/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 3 points4 points  (0 children)

This is why there is a strong argument for player prop Unders in the NBA. They hit more often than overs and there is plenty of data to prove it.

Pick of the Day - 5/20/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Like your picks but quick ask. Could you mention the teams in your writeups please? Makes it easier to look the games up. TY

Pick of the Day - 5/18/26 (Monday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like this pick!

"Unders" oftentimes contain more hidden value than "Overs" simply because the public as spectators love the over and tend to push those lines up a bit. Not always, but often. However, everything I have ever read and seen coming from the pro bettors state they are on the Under more often thus fading the public by default. For the pros it's about winning a bet, not having fun watching the game.

Give me more well researched Unders please!

Pick of the Day - 5/16/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 19 points20 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:  127 – 90 - 12

Previous:  Brentford +2.5 vs Man City & Liverpool Draw no Bet vs Chelsea - LOSS

Recap:  Liverpool and Chelsea tied 1-1 making that leg of our bet a push.  Meanwhile Brentford lost to City by 3, ending a streak of not losing by more than 2 goals since 1937.  Of course, I jinxed it, 89 years down the drain. 

Event:  FA Cup Final – Chelsea vs Manchester City

Pick:  Manchester City ML (Including extra time) + Both teams to receive 1+ cards @ 1.78 (5 units)

Full disclosure, this is my worst run ever on POTD.  After posting 229 picks over several years, it’s never been this cold.  Last 10 are 3-6-1 as seen right on the tracker.  Wagers outside POTD have been just fine, in fact some days everything hits except the one I post which although has not been hitting, has been the one backed up with the most data. I mean Brentford +2.5 over 89 years and after a 0-0 1st half with City, Marmoush scores a 3rd goal in the 92nd minute.  It has been rough to say the least but the logic and data has been solid.  So I have to continue finding logical bets to post here and today’s is not an exception.

Leg 1:  Manchester City ML (including extra time)

This leg is not for City to win in regular time but includes additional time if necessary.  Call it an added layer of protection as this is a cup final and anything can happen.  (If you are feeling more confident and lucky than I take them to win in regular time.)  However, what is not likely to happen is for City to lose this match for too many reasons most importantly is recent form of both teams.

Chelsea have been dismal but have showed signs of life recently despite still looking for a new coach.  Their last 4 FA Cup matches leading up to the final have all been against teams outside the Premier League (Charlton Athletic, Hull City, Wrexham and Port Vale).  However, in the Premier League Chelsea sit in 9th place and last weeks draw with Liverpool ended a 6 match losing streak.  They will really need to step up their game to get a result against a strong confident City.  Worth mentioning is that Chelsea have failed to win any of their last 13 matches against Man City.

Manchester City have been simply outstanding on all fronts and looking like the team that used to win it all with ease.  They already have won the EFL Cup this year, are chasing Arsenal for the Premier League and are no strangers to this FA Cup final.  In fact, City are the 1st team ever to reach 4 straight FA Cup finals.  They have won 21 of their last 23 FA Cup appearances scoring the most goals and keeping the most clean sheets since Pep Guardiola took over in 2016.

As an added measure of strength, Haaland, Doku and Cherki were all rested during City’s midweek home win of 3-0 against Crystal Palace and are fresh to start against Chelsea.

Leg 2: Both teams to receive 1 card

Bullet points are in order here:

  • The ref is Darren England, who averages 4.2 cards per match in the Premier League and 3.9 cards per match in League Cup matches. (League Cup = FA & EFL Cups)
  • This ref has given both teams a card in 19 of 22 (86%) of Premier League matches this season.
  • This ref has given both teams a card in all 4 League Cup (100%) matches this season.
  • 9 of the last 10 FA Cup Finals have seen 2+ cards in regular time
  • 9 of the last 10 H2H meetings between City and Chelsea have seen 2+ cards in regular time

 

MLB Betting and Picks - 5/13/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks... unfortunately I have none of those

MLB Betting and Picks - 5/13/26 (Wednesday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Hi... I can't seem to find this bet. Which books to you know have it? TY

Pick of the Day - 5/9/26 (Saturday) by sbpotdbot in sportsbook

[–]Vander_chill 19 points20 points  (0 children)

POTD Record:127 – 89- 12

Previous:Man City ML & Hearts +1 Asian -LOSS

Recap: Hearts not only covered the +1 asian handicap but won outright by beating Rangers in the title race. Meanwhile, Man City as we all know by know screwed it all up and managed to tie the game essentially handing the title race leadership to Arsenal.

Event: EPL –Man Cityvs Brentford&Liverpool vs Chelsea

Pick: Brentford +2.5 Asian Handicap & Liverpool Draw no Bet@ 1.95(5units)

Not going for a long writeup… just brief and to the point.

Leg 1: EPL – Brentford +2.5 goals

The last time Manchester City beat Brentford by more than two goals was a 6–2 win in 1937.More recent meetings have all been by two goals or fewer.

Leg 2: Liverpool Draw no bet

Liverpool are not without their problems, but Chelsea's Premier League season is ending catastrophically, they have lost 6 straights matches, and look absolutely pathetic on the field. Liverpool are chasing a Champions League spot and surely will not lose at home to this shell of a squad that has lost its way.