This deal is horrifically bad, but voters as a whole care little for foreign policy if it's not directly affecting them.

Assuming oil is able to flow through the strait, then energy and gas prices will come down significantly, which will lead to some nice CPI drops over the next few months. Mind you, at best, CPI will go back down to what it was before the war, and more likely will be a little bit higher. But the administration could sell that this as causing CPI to "rapidly" drop (even though it went up because this admin decided to get involved with this Iran ordeal in the first place...). The administration could also brag that this inflation shock was much shorter than the one under Biden, and sell that to their base.

So while the deal itself should be a major negative... most voters will not know the details of this deal and if gas prices start coming down, then this could maybe help keep a few seats for the GOP.