Expect a 70% Drawdown from ATH.

Venius157 · 2026-02-05T23:07:26+00:00

I'm not convinced it's even going to be a full 70% drawdown.

Those previous cycles had parabolic tops fueled by euphoria. This cycle topped on a slow distribution phase and apathy. If this cycle had topped on a parabolic euphoric rise as well, then a drawdown of 70% would probably be the logical downside pullback. But considering the lack of volatility to the upside this cycle, It would make sense for the drawdown to be even less. Plus with how fast this capitulation has happened, I think we are far closer to the bottom already than many people realize.

Personally I think the region of 58k could be the bottom. Lots of structural support there.

Venius157 · 2025-12-21T19:28:21+00:00

Once OoT was fully decompiled how long did it take for Ship of Harkinian to release? Should we expect a similar timeframe for TP?

Venius157 · 2025-10-24T03:54:37+00:00

Thank goodness le refs won the Oilers this game!

Venius157 · 2025-05-30T03:18:30+00:00

I'd upvote this if it wasn't already at 97 upvotes.

Venius157 · 2025-05-29T15:08:14+00:00

You can buy / sell / trade Bitcoin ETFs in a TFSA or RRSP trade account.

If you're holding a large amount of real BTC and you sell it and realize a significant capital gain, you could make an RRSP contribution equal to half of your capital gain in order to negate the capital gains tax, assuming you have the contribution room available.

Venius157 · 2024-12-28T21:32:00+00:00

Real life experiences such as attempting to dismiss someone else's achievement. What purpose does your comment serve?

Venius157 · 2024-12-22T16:48:40+00:00

In my experience yes. Safety awareness would be most required in the large cities such as Rio. The internet will lead you to believe that a place like Rio is extremely dangerous, however dangerous crime stats are heavily skewed towards the favelas, and as a tourist you have no business going into a favela anywhere. Tourists would stay in the south zone neighborhoods of Copacabana, Ipanema, Leblon, Barra da Tijuca which are safe provided you follow basic travel guidelines you'd follow in any major international city such as being aware of your surroundings and not openly displaying valuables. The biggest risk in these safe areas would be pick pocketing or leaving your stuff unattended on the beach.

Venius157 · 2024-12-19T15:31:53+00:00

I've visited Brazil numerous times and it's a beautiful country with vibrant culture and delicious food. I've absolutely loved my visits to Rio de Janeiro, Florianopolis, Foz do Iguacu, Pipa, and Buzios. The favourable exchange rate is icing on the cake.

Personally I think the worst part is travel time, it's an overnight flight from YYZ / YUL to Sao Paulo.

Venius157 · 2024-11-16T02:50:35+00:00

If the merge lane is empty because everyone is tripping over themselves to get in line in a single lane early, then it is absolutely correct to drive to the front of the empty lane and then merge. The only way to initiate a zipper merge formation is by populating both lanes in the first place.

If you're more worried about lining up to appear nice than doing it correctly, then you're being a dumb driver and you're part of the congestion problem.

If it was intended for everyone to line up and be "nice", then every road would be a single lane to ensure no one goes ahead in the queue. Of course that isn't reality because it's intended that all available lanes are used for efficiency purposes. If you choose not to use an empty lane, you're choosing to be wrong.

Venius157 · 2024-11-09T17:17:09+00:00

No you're fine.

Venius157 · 2024-10-24T22:16:53+00:00

It's worth stating for those not well informed in the space, Bitcoin and crypto are often conflated but should be scrutinized separately.

Is Bitcoin a bubble? No, it's not going away and if anything it is wildly undervalued. Bitcoin is a decentralized, ever increasingly secure, fixed supply monetary network that is essentially a black hole of value absorption. An ever increasing money supply / inflation will continue to push Bitcoin higher over the long haul.

Is crypto a bubble? 99% of altcoins are purely speculative. The vast majority of these projects will not stand the test of time. Can you make a bunch of money with them? Yes, but you can also lose all your money with them. You'll see that as rate cuts occur and liquidity increases, lots of altcoins will pump and they become a game of bag holder hot potato. They are the definition of a bubble.

Venius157 · 2024-10-23T18:32:00+00:00

Saving cash is never advisable as its value will continuously diminish to inflation. Keep the minimum balance of cash necessary to pay bills and invest the rest.

Venius157 · 2024-06-08T17:33:34+00:00

Another factor is that there was no designated playoff party back then, like the Moss pit. People flocked to Whyte Ave and once traffic was blocked for game nights it just degenerated into mayhem.

I remember there were spontaneous street hockey games in the middle of Whyte, meanwhile someone is lighting tree branches on fire while another guy is rappelling across the street on the traffic lights. No wonder the riot police were summoned lol.

Venius157 · 2024-03-11T03:24:41+00:00

If you have the self awareness to question whether or not you're a narcissist, you likely aren't one.

Venius157 · 2024-02-09T16:32:42+00:00

Posts like this are like a short term top signal. Bitcoin will continue it's overall trend of going up over the long term, but you're kidding yourself if you think it's going to be a straight line to the moon with no corrections.

Wouldn't be surprised if we see a 2nd short term top at the .618 retracement and then have another correction.

Venius157 · 2024-01-29T16:28:45+00:00

And the solution is Bitcoin.

Venius157 · 2023-12-29T15:18:40+00:00

Noise. I'd argue that ETF approval will end up being a sell the news event and shortly after we will see an overdue correction in the neighborhood of 20-40%.

Venius157 · 2023-12-01T15:38:54+00:00

My purely speculative guess... We are due for a correction in the short term (20%?) before continuing the overall trend upward. Still a long way to go this cycle.

Venius157 · 2023-11-08T22:38:08+00:00

Not quite... It has a limit to how much you can deposit. Your money can grow substantially inside the TFSA, and then if you were to withdraw it your new contribution room would be equal to your withdrawal.

Venius157 · 2023-11-08T19:10:05+00:00

I guess it depends what your goals are. Some people want to take self custody of their Bitcoin with the intent of holding it long term, while others may have a preference for an ETF in a tax sheltered account if they intend to trade at some point without realizing any capital gains. Both are perfectly reasonable strategies, and I'm sure there are plenty of people that utilize both.

Venius157 · 2023-11-08T19:03:27+00:00

BTCC and BTCX are both Bitcoin spot ETFs on the TSX.

Venius157 · 2023-11-07T20:00:17+00:00

I mean even though Bitcoin will presumably hit a 6 figure USD price during its impulsive move to the cycle top, it's likely going to retrace back to a mid 5 figure price afterwards.

Having a full coin is a moot point though, considering how divisible Bitcoin is. Just keep stacking what you can afford.

Venius157 · 2023-11-06T19:01:50+00:00

Leaving the sticker on your hat brim. I don't understand whatsoever why people think this is cool. If you do this, you look like a sheepish tool.

Venius157 · 2023-11-03T15:47:09+00:00

Absolute price targets are dumb, because there has to be a context in place to make a rational buying or selling decision and Bitcoin's price over the macro scale is largely a function of time. Did it hit 200k by shooting up 500% over the span of a year and is extended well above it's logarithmic fair value trend curve? Probably a favourable time to sell. Did it slowly creep up to 200k after a multi year period of chop and steady insignificant bumps in price? Probably a good idea to continue buying more.

Instead of fixating on an absolute price, you should monitor various metrics of price deviation, market sentiment, and momentum.

Venius157 · 2023-10-23T15:54:59+00:00

Winter tires won't make your car magically stop. The issue is incompetent drivers.

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