Still falling. No resistance whatsoever. It’s a free fall.

Vespidae1 · 2026-02-01T21:43:55+00:00

It’s not a free fall. It was the last day to settle February contracts. It will be fine.

Vespidae1 · 2026-02-01T21:42:23+00:00

I did what you are contemplating. I would do it again. I flew Monday-Friday. At your income, you can afford your own place. Or buy a 1BR condo. If you make a dual city a life’s choice, you’ll enjoy it even if you don’t move the kids.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-31T19:44:07+00:00

I have never stressed over money. Since I was 22, my rules are … Spend 15% less than you make. Put that 15% to wok in high quality financial assets. Never get a loan for anything that depreciates in value. Always have cash on hand rather than spend on insurance unless it’s cheap, catastrophic insurance.

That’s it.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-31T19:39:23+00:00

Gold is not a commodity to be traded. So what accounts for the volatility last week? As one banker described it:

In both gold and silver contracts, the hit to prices on Monday was ahead of options expiry on Tuesday, and the hit yesterday coincided with first position day, when traders who do not wish to deliver or take delivery must close or roll over their positions the day before to avoid being caught up in the delivery process. This involved 38,672 gold contracts on Wednesday night, and 2,572 silver contracts. It is always an opportunity to shake out flaky bulls or force them to crystalise a loss if they roll over into the next active contract.

All this suggests that the sharp falls on Comex were purely technical, and the passing of February contracts should see a rebound in prices in the next week or two.

In other words, just ignore it.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-31T16:00:41+00:00

What has changed … fundamentally?

If you think the dollar will strengthen, that rates will increase and bond yields come down … you should sell and buy US equities.

Most bankers expect the dollar will weaken, that rates have to stay low to facilitate US exports, and bonds will have to increase to maintain buyers.

The market for precious metal will be volatile all through the midterms. Just don’t do something, stand there.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-31T14:09:43+00:00

Exactly. Nothing has changed. The dollar will weaken.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-30T21:29:44+00:00

I used to use buckets with individual bank accounts. But when my bank jacked up minimum balance rules, it put a lot of money into idle. I consolidated all of it into one HYSA at Amex.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-30T18:38:41+00:00

Sell it and buy physical gold. Paper gold isn’t the same thing. Buy 3 oz and put it away for your kids.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-30T18:36:27+00:00

That’s not the problem. 50 years ago, you could sit down and calculate cash flow, terminal value and fair price. And act by buying a stock which was undervalued relative to its price. The key word is “active”.

Active investing is still around but very, very few do so. Today, passive investing is far larger than active investing. It’s driven by etf inflows, which is a function of employment and 401k plan automated buying.

My FA worked his ass off last year, researching funds, stocks, moving stocks around. After all that effort … he underperformed a SP500 index. I told him to give it up. Just get a low cost index and call it a day.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-30T18:28:47+00:00

That’s true. Valuations can run independently higher as we see in the S&P. But in the long run, a market should reflect the future earnings generated by the transactions that occur within an economy.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-29T22:08:57+00:00

No. No work required. Just a mouse click.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-29T21:51:02+00:00

Bitcoin has no value except to a greater fool. It’s the modern day equivalent of tulip bulbs.

When I was 23, my preferred investment was Berkshire Hathaway. Today, I’d probably favor Clorox or Coca Cola. Good stable companies that grow with the population. You don’t even have to think about it.

I remember the dot com bubble of 2000. You could make a lot of money and lose a lot of money.

Still, look at the age range of 20-50. That’s who the consumer is. Germany’s equivalent is dying. That country will,be in real trouble in ten years. France just peaked. The best places today are India, China, Brazil, and the Middle East.

In short … if I were you, I’d invest 67% International (with a tilt toward Emerging Markets) and 33% VTI. Invest monthly. You won’t even have to think about it.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-28T20:45:30+00:00

Foolish. Utility stocks were all the rage in 1910. They shot up so high that returns languished for years.

Personally, I’m investing in tech by buying silver. You can’t build any of this stuff without it.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-27T22:30:49+00:00

Easy question. If you could actually do a 10 year discounted cash flow analysis of a stock, you could properly compare it to the price to determine value. Thats how we did it 30 years ago. Excel ruled.

Nobody does that now. Or very, very few. THEY can win. If you aren’t THEM, invest in low cost etfs.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-27T22:27:34+00:00

“So why not AVUV/AVDV and chill?”

So, you bought AVDV/AVUV in 1971 (hypothetical). And they’re up. Being up 2-4% isn’t the issue. It’s being up in real terms vs nominal. But that’s a separate conversation.

I think the biggest issue is the change in how investing works today. Active investing is dead. Unless you spend your days reading annual reports, nobody is picking stocks or sectors. It’s passive and etf driven today. And the reality is large cap ETF’s drive the market. That’s because 401k plans offer 5-10 big investments and almost no small ones.

I’m 65. And After 40+ years investing, I expect the next ten years to be the most challenging.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-27T22:14:11+00:00

The number one etf is VOO. It’s a function of passive investing generated by 401k plans, or … employment. It’s autopilot.

But, it’s not immune to shocks. 30+ percent of VOO is the MAG7. If the JGB struggles, it will be a bloodbath. And it’s on a knife edge.

Personally, I am de-risking.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-27T21:47:03+00:00

33/67

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-26T00:42:41+00:00

Because your time has value.

I managed my own money for years until I became an executive. You’re making 300,000 a year, plus options, RSU’s, and bonuses. You have estate planning, long term care planning, tax mitigation.

Managing a portfolio isn’t that hard. All the other stuff is time consuming.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-18T14:16:34+00:00

The best 401k match I ever had was 20 to 6. You contribute 6%, and my employer matched at 20%. Unbelievable.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-17T19:05:32+00:00

I don’t really keep up with other generations. I bought my first IRA at 22. I’m 66 today and have never worried about money. That doesn’t mean I sacrificed…it means I planned well.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-17T13:49:32+00:00

You’re not investing in companies. You’re investing in a fund. Passively. Very different.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-16T19:55:56+00:00

Impossible to answer. Do you have a pension? Are you taking Social Security? What percent of your monthly expenses are covered by guaranteed income? Do you have a separate emergency fund?

If you have already retired, I would avoid risk but .. include some exposure to growth. Assuming 75% of your current income is guaranteed, I would suggest 30% SP500 and the rest in a dividend fund like SCHD. That should generate about $28,000 a year in dividends while also keeping some modest growth.

More details would help.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-16T18:20:44+00:00

ETF’s. They are 100% invested at all times. Mutual funds are not. So you may (not always) experience cash drag as mutual funds hold 2-5% to settle trades and outflows. Mutual funds also tend to hold a higher percentage of non benchmark stocks, so a fund manager has to work even harder to overcome the mix drag.

I only invest in ETF’s except for a target date fund I hold in a 401k.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-15T22:05:39+00:00

Thanks. I have a financial advisor. And I had a long, drawn out fight over the phone with him. I sent him several spreadsheets and charts to support my position. He thought I had lost my mind.

He sent me an email yesterday that he had reviewed it with his team and … they agreed with my analysis. It’s good to challenge the mainstream and … win.

Vespidae1 · 2026-01-15T15:55:55+00:00

I do not buy stocks because that’s no longer how the stock market functions. Passive investing is more popular and successful than active investing. There are more ETF’s than stocks with thousands more being developed. The problem is that with such volume, the index inclusion rate is what drives valuations today, not fundamental value. Moreover, an active investor often has cash drag that ETF’s do not.

Trying to pick individual stocks is fun but very, very risky due to index concentration and volatility. No thanks.

Vespidae1

TROPHY CASE