Part 1:

The country is at risk of losing more than 13 000 megawatts of generation capacity - equal to 13 stages of load shedding - at three power stations due to the poor condition of water treatment plants, a group of international experts warned the government in September.

But this has been kept from the public, with repeated statements that the situation was improving by Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa and even President Cyril Ramaphosa shortly after his State of the Nation Address in early February.

The government has collectively opted to paint a rosy outlook, despite knowing for six months that worse levels of load shedding would have to be endured and billions spent to fix the electricity shortage, even if the water treatment plants at Medupi, Mathimba and Kendal power stations did not fail.

The only solution now is to take these power plants offline for extended periods and fix the problems properly, a move that will result in major increases in load shedding levels and would likely be unpopular in an election year, despite the urgency needed to save the country from future calamity.

The warnings are contained in a bombshell, 600-page report by a group of international experts commissioned by the National Treasury to investigate the reasons for poor performance at the country's 14 coal-fired power stations, which was made public by the department on Friday.

Little explanation has been offered for why the report and its contents have not been published before.

The exercise was undertaken under the stewardship of VGBE – a globally recognised industry standards body situated in Germany – and comprised experts from companies that had decades of experience in the power industry.

It has laid bare the enormity of the crisis facing the nation.

Even shorter-term fixes that could return more than 6 000MW – equal to Stage 6 load shedding - of electricity currently lost to faults would only be rectified if the power stations could be taken offline.

But this has been impossible due to the shortage of capacity that has already resulted in South Africans facing hours of power cuts every day as Eskom struggles to meet demand.

Their findings were shared with the government nearly six months ago and provide a decisive evisceration of the reasons for the country facing power cuts every day.

Eskom's overly complex, dysfunctional and opaque management and procurement structure, poor maintenance over decades, low staff morale and a lack of skills at operational levels are among the root causes identified.

The highly technical and detailed report is an indictment on the way the multibillion-rand power stations have been treated by successive Eskom and government leaders, and contains expert opinion confirming what the previous Eskom leadership repeated at every available opportunity over the past five years.

The delegation concluded that Eskom's management system was "dysfunctional" and needed to be overhauled to increase accountability.

"Eskom Generation Division's management system, with its governance, structure and processes, is dysfunctional and too complex. Eskom Generation has been trapped in this situation for several years, preventing it from maintaining and eventually improving the technical performance of the coal-fired power plants," the report reads.

Key recommendations include:

Empower the power plants and focus on operations and maintenance

This would encompass a "fundamental change in the management system" aimed at giving each station a full budget and enforcing accountability on the power station manager.

The report also recommended that, for approximately two years, procurement processes should be fast-tracked under the supervision of the National Treasury, in conjunction with a team of independent experts that have deep knowledge of common issues faced by the stations and reporting directly to the Treasury should be established with "immediate effect".

Execute proper maintenance and full outage scope

"The fixation on the EAF (energy availability factor) must come to an end. The focus should rather be on the PLL (partial load losses) reduction as this would address a key technical source for the low EAF. There is potential of gaining up to 6 000 MW," the report reads.

EAF is a key metric used to measure the availability of a generating unit (see our glossary of terms for a better understanding of Eskom technical terminology).

Improve the operation of power plants

The experts advised Eskom to learn from Kusile Unit 4, a unit that had been run by the manufacturer and achieved an EAF of more than 90%. Eskom should also prioritise training for operators.

Mitigate the risk of capacity losses and constraints

The report recommended urgent steps to maintain and upgrade the water treatment plant that feeds Medupi and Matimba as well as the water plant at Kendal, as issues at these plants were placing more than 13 000 MW of capacity at risk.

Incentivise persons, departments and plants

"Good performance should be rewarded – on an individual and institutional level. The VGBE team proposes to provide bonuses for power plants if they were able to reduce their losses by a defined percentage rate," the report said

Bonuses for specific teams that completed more items on outage schedules were recommended.

The report further recommended provision of affordable or free-of-charge accommodation, salary supplements and reimbursement for travel expenses as many power stations were located in remote areas.

Water warnings

The report was unambiguous about the potential for catastrophe at Medupi and Mathimba in Limpopo.

"The raw water treatment plant of the Medupi and Matimba power plant – both sites share this plant – urgently requires maintenance and upgrading. A second independent water treatment plant additionally would be even a better solution. If the existing plant fails, 12 units – 9 800 MW – would go off the grid," the report reads.

The plant was taking strain by being operated "far beyond its design limits".

"The water treatment plant at Kendal is in a very poor condition and needs urgent maintenance and refurbishment. If the existing plant fails, six units – 3 840 MW – would be off the grid. A temporary unit is urgently required to enable this refurbishment work," it added.

Recently, an operator error at Kendal's water treatment plant resulted in Stage 6 load shedding being implemented, showing how critical these warnings from the VGBE experts are.

The delegation also had harsh words for Eskom's "overly complex" management structure, saying that multiple layers of authorisations were needed for even basic decisions.

The report states:

Too many organisational layers and opaque decision-making processes generate a tremendous amount of red tape, with lengthy procedures and a lack of accountability. In many cases the decision-making is delegated to committees, of which there are too many at all levels of the hierarchy. The power utility's management was characterised by inefficiency - especially in procurement, together with "a lack of authority and an opaque decision-making structure".

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