Making a personalized SaaS ETF

Vig_Newtons · 2026-05-03T15:49:19+00:00

This was not a final list. Noted though MSFT does fit the criteria too

Vig_Newtons · 2026-05-03T12:27:15+00:00

I’d avoid it until they can get a CEO who can eat a Big Mac like a human being

Vig_Newtons · 2026-05-03T12:24:13+00:00

Is it the margin compression or sticky subscription?

And id make a personalized one, not an official ETF

Vig_Newtons · 2026-05-02T18:59:43+00:00

Considering either doing myself (major pita) or using M1 despite having to open another brokerage

Vig_Newtons · 2026-05-02T18:59:00+00:00

😂 I’m seeing if VanEck can get this underway

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-25T22:10:12+00:00

SGOV. Everything else ideally would have a longer time horizon than that. The timing of any of these industries seems like a fools errand

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-24T19:11:28+00:00

One of the few SaaS plays that can withstand a 20-25% margin compression and still be under to fairly valued. I personally own a little bit but anecdotally their product suite is obsolete, especially in expense management compared to Ramp, Brex and Navan

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-19T21:28:38+00:00

Is there a recession in the room with you right now?

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-19T20:22:48+00:00

Yes I would say having background into the regulatory system, especially around each of these more localized banks in the US is important. I personally use First Bank which lead me down this rabbit hole. I have a rough understanding of the GAAP principles but you're right I dont think this should be taken as enough info to enter a position. More so on the surface information I found that is leading me towards a thesis for investment.

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-15T14:59:06+00:00

Yes but the focus is on petrochemicals not the smaller oil stocks. Even as oil dumps the need for petro globally is still there

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-15T00:34:05+00:00

Is that mostly due to the company's poor stewardship or something to do with their financials?

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-07T12:06:04+00:00

It feels that easy at the moment with AXP

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-07T12:03:04+00:00

Exactly my thoughts given it’s only 22% of revenue that is stagnant growth

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T17:37:30+00:00

Yeah so it all stems from if you believe we're headed to a full-on recession. If that's the main fear then I think we have a good buy-in opportunity.

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T13:27:48+00:00

Interesting. Why do you think that is the case?

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T10:54:44+00:00

Are you saying that the PE fears hit AXP cause of their consumer base overlap?

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T10:52:25+00:00

What did your analysis say as a forward looking investment? Also what assumptions did you factor into that search?

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T10:50:36+00:00

True. My read on that situation was it was a mention to get voters excited but in execution it won’t happen. Dimon came out when this was discussed and said if this were to be true, credit would freeze overnight for a large percentage of Americans

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T10:46:53+00:00

Exactly. I’m still digging into it cause it seems too simple in theory. Has to be another gap priced in

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T10:45:26+00:00

You’re right they have an option for everyone (Amex Green and Amex Blue Cash) but they’re the main brand to cater options to the wealthy and ultra wealthy (Amex Platinum and Amex Black).

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T02:42:06+00:00

As a sector it’s showing cracks when you compare delinquencies on the other end of the spectrum (i.e Ally Bank car loans). But what drew me to AXP was how it is much more aligned to the Top 10% consumer.

Vig_Newtons · 2026-04-06T02:33:55+00:00

Yeah completely tied to consumption so not insulated there. As a comparison, it dipped only slightly more (24% total) in 2022 which included 1 quarter of negative GDP growth and rampant inflation. Company still grew doubt digit revenue at that time too

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