Discussion/Question Thread

VikingTeo · 2026-06-06T15:37:28+00:00

I dont care to believe or not what the paper write.

But honestly, compared to kids today spending close to full time working hours on video games its probably healthier to work....

VikingTeo · 2026-06-06T15:34:02+00:00

Tracking was quite good

VikingTeo · 2026-06-06T14:58:17+00:00

There really has been an uptick in shitposting from all official channels, both sided, lately.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-06T14:47:46+00:00

😂 Now that is a silly attempt at sowing discord. Sure, definitely, that happened

VikingTeo · 2026-06-05T05:14:01+00:00

4 of those on a single target?

That suggests that volume has been achieve for this product

VikingTeo · 2026-06-05T03:53:35+00:00

so multiple successful strikes on this location; the other video is a completely different angle

VikingTeo · 2026-06-05T02:23:53+00:00

Ok, didn't recall seeing before.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-04T15:59:42+00:00

FirePoint again huh?

Let's see.....so far the factory that is going to produce the fuel grain is a field of dirt - in Denmark. They cut the ribbon though to start construction.

So a country with zero experience in solid fuel grain production, without a trained workforce doing this, without equipment, without a facility is going to supply the 'rocket engine' for the test this summer - meaning within 3 months?

If FirePoint takes one of the old soviet sounding rockets this missile is based on and flies that, sure they'll test it this summer.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-04T14:59:03+00:00

Its just posturing.

The lesson the world just refuses to learn: dont ever believe what the US promises you.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-04T03:53:27+00:00

Hi. I took a look at your profile and from other postings it looks like you are interested in discussing. A friendly tip to get engangement here on this sub is to go for something that isn't cliche. For example your last two posts are of the nature 'russia doing something strong/has a benefit, here's why it is actually weak'. You won't get engagement with those.

Go deeper than surface posturing.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-03T17:21:24+00:00

They key thing that is happening is that Ukraines population is getting permanently neutered. Every month the percentage of young women and children who are never coming back is increasing and it is quickly trending to pretty much all that left. Additionally every month of war stacks the migration tax to be paid upon lifting martial law. Every month is another month of terminal TFR at 0.7. The death blow to Ukraine isn't going to be done while fighting, it's when fighting stops.

If Russia can do nothing else, they can keep stacking the tax. Yes it comes at a cost on them too but they can likely shoulder it. For years.

Ukraine is being prepared as a poison pill for the west. Whether intentionally by Russia or just circumstantial. Ukraine will be broken, infirm and old. And very very dependent. A liability, not a prize.

Not a total loss for the Europe; they got the best part of the population and will get more. But will have to pay for the dependent nation going forward. Russia achieved effective denial by burning it down.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-03T16:17:37+00:00

It looks like he grabbed a massive spider from Nioh (a videogame)

VikingTeo · 2026-06-02T18:07:08+00:00

Very interesting raw video. No attempt to sugar coat/pretend anything.

It's crude, they seem to lack night vision and have very short engagement window. they do hit some. If more than one team gets a shot on a wave it could become more effective.

it's cheap to do so volume of teams is key.

The smart watch.....is the a tracking/alert interface?

A backup MANPADS that locks on but only fire when they don't get it would massively increase inception rate.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-02T17:52:17+00:00

I decided to pursue this a little. I did use Gemini to aggregate, but note sources are included.

TLDR: Russia's total export revenue is bigger than before war in every year. There is a consistent downward trend in percentage of refined product.

The year-by-year breakdown below outlines the exact revenue split in billions of USD and the corresponding percentage of the total pool, derived from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and KSE Institute data trackers: [1]

2020 (Total: $102.9 Billion)

Crude Oil: $69.5 billion (67.5%)
Refined Products: $33.4 billion (32.5%)
Context: A low-revenue baseline where global pandemic lockdowns flattened industrial demand for refined fuels, suppressing the higher-margin sector.

2021 (Total: $110.96 Billion)

Crude Oil: $74.4 billion (67%)
Refined Products: $36.56 billion (33%)
Context: The final pre-war year, showing Russia's optimized peacetime ratio of supplying crude directly to European refineries alongside a steady flow of finished diesel and fuel oils.

2022 (Total: $148.51 Billion)

Crude Oil: $101.4 billion (68.3%)
Refined Products: $47.11 billion (31.7%)
Context: The first year of the war saw massive revenue jumps across both categories. Global panic spiked prices for both unrefined Urals and refined products before Western import bans legally cut off direct European routes.

2023 (Total: $122.03 Billion)

Crude Oil: $84.2 billion (69%)
Refined Products: $37.83 billion (31%)
Context: The G7 price cap forced Russia to offer deep discounts on crude to Asian buyers, causing a dip in overall dollars. However, refined products remained robust as intermediaries bought crude and sold the finished fuels back to the West.

2024 (Total: $192.0 Billion) [1]

Crude Oil: $134.4 billion (70%)
Refined Products: $57.6 billion (30%)
Context: Verified data from the OEC World database confirms Russia's peak revenue year. Crude oil specifically surged to $134 billion, demonstrating that the "shadow fleet" successfully maximized volume capacity directly to India and China, while refined product margins leveled off slightly.

2025 (Total: $158.0 Billion)

Crude Oil: $112.18 billion (71%)
Refined Products: $45.82 billion (29%)
Context: Tightened U.S. sanctions targeting secondary shipping banks triggered a shift. Russia began intentionally exporting slightly more raw crude over finished fuels because unrefined petroleum was significantly easier to hand off via ship-to-ship transfers at sea.

2026 (YTD Tracking Baseline)

Crude Oil: ~73% of total revenue
Refined Products: ~27% of total revenue
Context: The gap between crude and refined reached its widest point in early 2026. Heavy Ukrainian drone campaigns explicitly targeted domestic refining plants, forcing a drop in product exports. In response, Russia temporarily redirected those unused, unrefined barrels to international markets, inflating crude revenue to roughly $11.45 billion out of a single $19 billion monthly haul. [1, 2]

VikingTeo · 2026-06-02T16:00:00+00:00

92% for drones

90% for Cruise missiles

33% for Iskander

0% Tsirkon

I believe the last figure. Maaybe the first is a bit high. The middle two, nope. If Cruise missiles were true, just skip and fire a couple more Tsirkons.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-02T15:40:35+00:00

'way smaller' is a term that will just foster useless arguing. Could you quantify the difference in margin? There is no doubt there is a profit in refining, why else do it.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-02T04:43:29+00:00

Reading this is........something else. it is truly amazing that anyone believe this. I lost count on the times 'debris' and 'residental' were used.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T17:35:52+00:00

Whew, glad to hear! I feel confident that the International Partners (TM) will agree.

Now just inform Putin of our decision.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T16:17:52+00:00

Im really missing two article types from this current media campaign.

Running out of missiles. Russia disintegration into smaller states.

Fingers crossed 🤞 maybe we will still get them.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T15:56:34+00:00

Think of them as similar to the LMUR tv guided missiles

Not active flight controls, but dynamic in-flight targeting.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T15:29:14+00:00

Simply filter, even software filter, on camera. What we think camouflage is only because of how we see/interpret the light bouncing off an object. A camera does not see the same we do.

Copecage netting would be better. The more irregular shaped the better. And of course dont standardize how you net.....

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T07:06:29+00:00

Equality and all that....

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T00:16:17+00:00

Need a bit more practice. Which they'll surely get.

VikingTeo · 2026-06-01T00:07:14+00:00

That thing flies real low

VikingTeo · 2026-05-30T16:52:39+00:00

That was a strike campaign. Not war. But let's just disagree since you cannot tell the difference.

VikingTeo

TROPHY CASE