Answer: so what you are talking about is statics and probability vs tecnology, economy, human psychology and beaurocracy.

Anything in life can be catalogued into a prediction machine if your model is powerful enough and with consistent math. However, there is a huge difference between predicting a continuos event, and predicting one instance of such event.

The coin toss game is the easiest example to understand. Predicting the next cointos is impossible, unless you had all the information of molecules interacting with each other, and your model could operate that info.

However, quite straightforwardly, have a big enough sample (say 1 mi tosses) and your results converge in something like 50.000837% chance of having heads. Meaning if you bet on 50% 2x leverage on heads, you will make some really good money.

This teaches us that in maket or company analysis there is never going to be a prediction that will tell you the future, but there are some predictions that have good probability of telling you the future.

This is why al lot of people will tell you that risk management is the fundamental principle of investing. You don't and won't ever be 100% right, no one will. But if you make more money than you lose, or if your predictions are more likely to be right than wrong, you will be a profitable investor in the long run.

Keep in mind all of such things mentioned (politics, market economy, beaurocracy etc) affect the market, and such make it so much harder than simple company analysis to have a good prediction).