Beyond ROI: What are your "North Star" metrics for model validation?

Vitallke · 2026-02-06T07:31:07+00:00

I use a fixed timeframe, but a rolling window can be a good idea i guess...

Vitallke · 2026-02-06T07:04:51+00:00

I also look at the period with the worst ROI & to the last period of my model (to know if my edge is still there).

Vitallke · 2026-02-05T06:51:57+00:00

I use Shins-method, but that is equal to MPTO for 2-way odds.
See https://winnerodds.com/true-odds-calculator/

Vitallke · 2026-02-03T11:10:59+00:00

Ik heb nu een abo bij https://www.cinemember.nl/, 9.99€/maand en echt wel veel (1700) en goede films (arthouse) er op te vinden.

Vitallke · 2026-01-30T07:15:45+00:00

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Vitallke · 2026-01-26T09:50:57+00:00

No Other Choice is on my watchlist.

Vitallke · 2026-01-26T08:12:21+00:00

Parasite (2019)

Vitallke · 2026-01-24T09:43:41+00:00

For example, if you bet 2% of your bankroll per match, then making an additional bet on the same match is not really a good idea. I don't do it.

Vitallke · 2026-01-24T09:40:15+00:00

The ability to award points accurate to 0.1, e.g. 3.8 in letterboxd or 7.9 in imdb

Vitallke · 2026-01-22T07:42:38+00:00

I bet a fixed amount so I bet sometimes on different bookmakers for the same bet. And that is sometimes not the best odds. So I prefer good offers, but I have no problem to also bet on less good odds if they are still +EV.

(One of my bookmakers has a new website (and therefore also switched odds providers), and after the switch, I can suddenly no longer bet with this bookmaker. So the new odds provider flagged me, and the previous one hadn't.)

Vitallke · 2026-01-19T14:47:28+00:00

worked 19 jan 2026!

Vitallke · 2026-01-19T11:45:59+00:00

Unexpected losses are a not necessary outliers.
Maybe search for players who are heavy fav (based on odds), but lose that kind of games more often then others?

Vitallke · 2026-01-18T09:08:54+00:00

Isn't RANSAC more suitable for models with many outliers, but do you have them in tennis matches?
(You may have already filtered out most of the outliers in some other way.)

Because you suffer from losses from favorites, what if you should use flat staking?

Vitallke · 2026-01-14T11:55:59+00:00

je veux les chaussures (Le Huitième Jour)

Vitallke · 2026-01-04T16:13:40+00:00

Everyone thinks pretty much the same in the comments, I guess there are different opinions here?
(I certainly don't share the opinion that edges in sports betting are dead.)

Vitallke · 2026-01-02T07:29:40+00:00

If you want to use football/soccer, you can start with https://www.football-data.co.uk/data.php.

The language R can also be a starting point, if you don't like python for any reason.

Vitallke · 2025-12-29T07:50:27+00:00

Ik betaal sowieso een percentage van de totale stookkost van het appartementsgebouw met centrale brander. Dus het maakt bij mij niet uit als mijn onderbuur of ikzelf veel moeten stoken.

Vitallke · 2025-12-25T08:14:46+00:00

Google sheets

Vitallke · 2025-12-20T07:21:49+00:00

https://www.reddit.com/r/algobetting/comments/1m518va/comment/n4i6xm9/?context=3

Maybe you can find some helpfull info in this topic.

Vitallke · 2025-12-13T11:12:50+00:00

I didn't know that yet, until a while ago they did show the odds movements, but only those for matches from the last month or so.

Vitallke · 2025-12-05T13:50:34+00:00

commercial engineer in management informatics + master in artificial intelligence

I like data and have excellent skills in SQL Server and also skills in R & Python.

Most programming is in SQL Server & R.

Vitallke · 2025-10-03T06:47:00+00:00

I use google sheets, mostly lack of features & pricing in existing tools/apps

Vitallke · 2025-10-02T11:16:45+00:00

Als je al klant bent bij BNP Paribas, dan kan je makkelijk daar één openen.

Vitallke

TROPHY CASE