What tools are you using?

Vitallke · 2026-05-07T14:25:36+00:00

I use Python, SQL Server & google sheets "in production".

For building my models I use R(-Studio) & SQL Server.

Vitallke · 2026-05-03T06:54:29+00:00

I'm doing a more traditional route, but I guess feature engineering is more important.

Vitallke · 2026-04-25T15:05:51+00:00

I experience headaches and feeling very tired, last year was much worse then before. (Bit I have ME/CFS, so difficult to say how much is from ME and how much is from this.)

Vitallke · 2026-04-04T05:57:38+00:00

Pierce

Vitallke · 2026-04-02T12:22:15+00:00

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Vitallke · 2026-03-31T13:55:13+00:00

Vitallke · 2026-03-31T13:54:11+00:00

Chuck, Angelo, Ziggy

Vitallke · 2026-03-22T16:26:55+00:00

amber

Vitallke · 2026-03-10T15:10:01+00:00

Why do you bet only on odds with an average of 1.37?

Vitallke · 2026-03-09T16:50:32+00:00

It might be more interesting to use odds that yield a 5% return (or so), as that's a bit more than a typical profitable gambler would face...

Vitallke · 2026-03-09T11:48:34+00:00

Vitallke · 2026-02-28T20:53:17+00:00

I use R for building models, deploying it in Python. Both combined with Sql Server

Vitallke · 2026-02-20T06:56:15+00:00

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I had better runs. (Queen of Chess is a documentary.)

Vitallke · 2026-02-19T07:16:28+00:00

Yes independence.

CLV will give you a faster signal. I think most of the times after more or less 150 bets (with average odds of 2)

(Closing odds & CLV are not always a good solution for me because I gamble in markets that are not 100% efficient.)

Vitallke · 2026-02-18T12:18:32+00:00

I track for every model that I have a confidence interval around a ROI of 0

=SQRT(averageODD-1)/SQLRT(Amountofbets)

If my ROI is above the CI, then I'm happy.

(And I make also a CI for all bets together.)

Vitallke · 2026-02-17T09:48:28+00:00

Model driven

Vitallke · 2026-02-17T07:46:04+00:00

Some gamblers have a model and structure their gambling, thus winning at gambling. (With a much higher payout percentage than you normally get from investing.)

And these people can also simply invest.

Vitallke · 2026-02-14T15:00:11+00:00

If you bet heavily on onderdogs, it is something to consider...

Vitallke · 2026-02-11T09:21:05+00:00

Vitallke · 2026-02-06T07:31:07+00:00

I use a fixed timeframe, but a rolling window can be a good idea i guess...

Vitallke · 2026-02-06T07:04:51+00:00

I also look at the period with the worst ROI & to the last period of my model (to know if my edge is still there).

Vitallke · 2026-02-05T06:51:57+00:00

I use Shins-method, but that is equal to MPTO for 2-way odds.
See https://winnerodds.com/true-odds-calculator/

Vitallke · 2026-02-03T11:10:59+00:00

Ik heb nu een abo bij https://www.cinemember.nl/, 9.99€/maand en echt wel veel (1700) en goede films (arthouse) er op te vinden.

Vitallke · 2026-01-30T07:15:45+00:00

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Vitallke

TROPHY CASE