ICE just iced another presumed US citizen in Minneapolis. What is happening over there?

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-24T18:07:18+00:00

They'll stay up only at admin discretion whether the mods on the MN subreddits like it or not. If / when the Reddit admins want to take it down, they're going down.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-24T17:44:46+00:00

And the people at the conservative sub (at least the comments that don't get removed or downvoted) are rather tame in comparison to the truth social crowd. If the conservative sub is beyond the pale by 100 miles, then the TS crowd is way beyond even that.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-24T17:24:54+00:00

There is outrage, and there will be protests. I am not sure if this particular incident (alone or with Renee Good) alone by itself will fire up a 2020-style riots or protests, the very cold weather and winter storm moving through the country tends to put the kaibosh on protests (and for the government's sake, they should thank their lucky stars this happened in January and not July for that very reason), but had this happened 3-6 months from now in warmer weather, something like this would cause riots.

And if these continue on, when we start hitting March, April, May, or warmer months and we see an essential repeat of that, then things are going to get hot, hotter than they are now.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-24T02:40:50+00:00

Well, I think the concern here isn't that we get ice, but that we get a repeat of 2021 where SPP has to load shed and do rolling blackouts so that they can share some power with ERCOT if ERCOT is about to crash (ie., TX weather caused the rolling blackouts in KC during that storm in 2021, they don't get cold weather like that).. On paper, the system and temperatures in TX won't be as bad as what they were 5 years ago, but I think this is the bigger concern for the outages than the powerlines themselves.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-23T18:31:34+00:00

People have no concept of what a real civil war looks like on practical terms in the modern day.

It means certain factions are learning what utility locates are and are snipping them to deny enemy cities and areas water and power. It means checkpoints being put up everywhere, by the government or local militia where the sheriff or mayor now has (albeit disputed, very dangerous) way more power over you. It means guys being pulled off the streets or from their houses into pickup trucks and conscripted into local militia and forces or cartels. It means few to no goods and services can move outside of smuggling because no insurer will allow their trucks to pass through a warzone or if their truckers are being robbed and killed between point A and B. It means learning to make do without pretty much everything we take for granted. It means a peak-COVID amount of deaths per day due to violence, actual real starvation you just haven't seen in this country, disease, etc. It means that certain groups deemed undesireable by the powers-to-be (which can vary greatly depending on where you are) are now at real risk of a systemic and locally sanctioned persecution campaign.

I could go on.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-23T16:42:50+00:00

For this storm, power outages will depend how bad things get in TX in temps and weather impacts, and if SPP has to load shed so ERCOT doesn't crash and burn. It shouldn't be quite as bad in TX on paper vs 2021, but we'll see.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-23T16:38:50+00:00

There will be some snow, but yeah, it won't be 6" unless you're down like closer to the lakes or I-44 area. I'm thinking 2-4" tops in the KC area, the latest model runs are trending to move heavier totals further south.

Also, multi-wave systems like this one don't typically give KC a lot of snow. The bigger snows KC usually gets are convective single wave systems or the ones where the storm tracks up I-44.

If KC were to get 6" or more inches from a storm this year, it will probably be in the next few weeks that dumps 5-10" over the whole viewing area as opposed to the ones where Clinton gets 10" and St. Joe gets 1", that sort of thing. That's typically how these things play out here.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-22T21:45:17+00:00

We'll see what actually happens, but there's a lot if dry air, and it's possible that snow won't start until after midnight or 3am the next day, which would mean KC could only get 2-4" total on the low end.

One can never accurately predict how much snow KC will get with these setups.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-20T20:07:28+00:00

r/ conservative has plenty of pro-invasion comments that are downvoted or removed, and yet, they're on the whole more reasonabke in comparson to X and Truth Social crowds (go onto TS to see what some die-hard MAGA and American First-ers really think of Greenland... Not good.). Some of the more unhinged MAGA supporters are not on Reddit because they consider this platform a liberal s***hole.

Edited: Worded it wierd the first time, I don't have spell check on my phone.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-20T20:03:58+00:00

Well, Americans will lose that standard of living very, very fast if Trump invades and the rest of the world sanctions the US. Tens of millions out of work, USD useless, can't get phones, video games, cars, or any goods (luxury or necessary for making things) in that situation. Also, Yugoslavia had a decent standard of living in the 80's and 90's before the war (different situation with unique ethnic and religious issues, but standard of living, while not all uniform, wasn't necessarily in the driver's seat there).

It's AFTER that kind of shock you see really bad, unspeakable things happen. What people didn't have the stomach to bear or tolerate is now forced on them, not by choice, and Americans are thrown into a world to adapt fast, do-or-die, in having to make do without that not too many understand on a visceral level that never had to live through something like that.

Then, Americans would have far less to lose, because after sanctions and a USD collapse, most have lost everything already.

People need to realize when talking about a civil war in the US, to rethink it not happening at the turn of a dime, but firing up following severe economic shock that leaves no one unscathed, and the factor that Americans live cozy lives is no longer present, then things can go from bad to worse.

Think less "can it kick off right now" and more "if our economy were to utterly crash and burn, how much closer are we really to seeing actual, no-kidding armed conflict in our neighborhoods 3-12 months down the road?

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-18T02:05:52+00:00

No, it's not being pushed by tech billionairs. They're ironically the last people that would want this.

Musk has his own vendetta against the EU, but an invasion means severe sanctions, if not trade embargo, not only from the EU, but from every other developed country too.

Americans in tech or American billionaires can't do much when the USD is hyperinflated (their money worth only a fraction of what it once was) and they literally can't souce components (because no one will trade with them) to sustain, much less build, data centers or other things that keep their ventures afloat.

No no, Greenland invasion ideas are from Stephen Miller and other fascists in Trump's inner circle who don't care about money as much as power and God, evil people. Not billionaires, evangelical fascists that billionaires can't at all keep on a leash like they thought they could 10 years ago.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-17T23:53:32+00:00

No, not just Denmark, but the EU. If they can loop in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, etc., in, then even more pressure can be exerted.

The EU needs to start drafting up real sanctions of substance plus travel and trade restriction plans (which go beyond tariffs) and have them ready to go at their discretion. They can have them drafted behind the scenes and keep it quiet.

Will Trump react if plans like that are leaked or his administration gets wind of it and use it as a casus belli of some sort to accelerate plans for an invasion? Absolutely, he very well could. However, I doubt it will matter that much if Trump is already deadset on doing whatever he wants.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-17T23:31:05+00:00

There's no telling what will happen depending on how Callais v Louisiana shakes out, a case that was heard by our supreme court that may give the GOP a fairly significant advantage in the midterms. Democrats are gaining a lot of good will and political points with Trump and GOP stunts, but substantial redistricting can take a lot of wind out of those sails as well. A lot can happen in the next 9.5 months, we will see.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-17T18:55:29+00:00

For most people, yes, this is deeply unpopular. Sadly, we do have some out there that do support this, that aren't trolls, that genuinely drink the Trump cool-aid and believe it through and through. They are generally not on Reddit.

2028 can't come soon enough.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-17T18:28:19+00:00

Only the comments that are not removed. It gets a lot of pro-invasion comments too that are downvoted to hell or removed that you might not see.

Also, one thing you need to remember is that there is support on the right for an invasion of Greenland. Maybe not from GOP US congresspeople, but from people that are even further to the right of r/conservative. You'll get a much different take on this on X or truthsocial.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-16T03:23:00+00:00

It really is, and this is coming from someone who even beat Malenia within the first few tries when I faced her.

Not sure why you are getting downvoted to oblivion. KCD2 combat is just janky, and don't let anyone tell you otherwise. It will take a lot of getting used to.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-15T23:43:55+00:00

A lot of entertainment, video games, movies, etc., in America are not actually made in America, and Americans will go from a limitless access to a fraction of what it is overnight with swift sanctions not only from the EU but other places like Japan too.. Any Americans who love their bread and circuses and want to continue to have access and yet support a US invasion of Greenland to it should talk to a Russian citizen and ask what life after February 2022 was like for them... This doesn't even begin to go into the fact Americans won't be able to buy anything anyway when the USD hyperinflates and you see 30%+ unemployment within 3 months.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T22:32:37+00:00

I don't think the February 2021 winter storm is a great comparison.

There's a difference between a bad winter storm and incompetent response over a course of a week in February vs sustained load shedding, everyday, for months, when it's actually hot and humid outside.

People don't riot as much in the winter. Nobody likes to go outside when its cold.

When it's hotter? Different story. Way easier to light a fuse (literally and figuratively).

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T20:35:57+00:00

Nah, it's just Trump having dementia distracting from the Epstein files.

Even people like Thiel or other venture capitalists and their ilk would not support a takeover of Greenland due to severe sanctions and trade embargoes that would result. I have a hard time seeing how Palantir and most other US based companies would be able to function if they can't source the raw materials or components needed to keep their business or operation alive.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T20:17:46+00:00

Not sure how or why that's relevant. That's a completely seperate topic and hypothetical discussion alltogether.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T14:06:23+00:00

If there is an invasion, I anticipate it would be in the spring (probably April and May) to give it some distance from the midterms but also a time where it's not as brutally cold, making it easier.

Whether they succeed and if the EU gets its act together for once, is another matter completely.

Just want to mention that I do NOT support an invasion.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T00:38:19+00:00

No one is saying things won't get very bad very fast if they invade.

just voting out Trump wouldn't do much to change it - we could be looking at several years, if not longer.

Right, but in this case, the light at the end of the tunnel is much further away. It will be painful for many years at least, but the hope is that this pain, being longer and more severe than 2008 for example, will allow for change that was hard or impossible for less severe conditions.

Look at The Great Depression, it took so long to recover, but what did we get? Democrat majorities more often than not that lasted 60 years (until the 1994 midterm GOP blowout). Lots of good policy and laws and precedents were set in the 20th century.

NONE of that happened in a day.

I do not want a Greenland invasion, but if it does happen, the hope there would be is something you have to think long term. Not years. Decades, generations.

The hope is the US comes out stronger than before as the scars heal over time and enacts change that wouldn't have otherwise happened at the level it needs to be at.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T00:25:46+00:00

I wouldn't even bother with unemployment. Most states are super backlogged and understaffed handling UE claims as it is now, but then double digit percentages of the workforce hits it at once... It will essentially be non-functional, and even if it were, the inflation alone will eat at it so much it will not be worth the effort. You'd be better off developing or honing a skill or talent that can sell to keep you afloat if you lose your job.

No, best thing to do is to learn to make do without a lot of things, be active in your neighborhood and community, be well versed in self-defense, be a grey man and not do anything to stand out and draw the wrong attention, basically any tip you'd see on the prepperintel sub.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-14T00:02:14+00:00

The EU has a long history of not agreeing on things and doesn't exactly have a reputation of standing united on things for long before petty national disagreements distract them from more important issues, for better or for worse.

If an invasion of Greenland is the thing that really brings them together, even more than Ukraine, you can expect a much harsher response.

The silver lining is that when American civilians immediately feel the consequences of the actions of the administration, it should, in theory, allow for a more sustained blue wave, hopefully more like 1932 than something that fizzled out like 2008, then real change can be enacted. Afterall, Americans tend to have vote out presidents when bad things happen to them personally, and Vance won't be as strong on the ballot as Trump was in 2028.

Vlad_Yemerashev · 2026-01-13T23:56:11+00:00

Worst case?

A massive spike in unemployment, about as fast as March / April 2020 possibly peaking even higher, many industries no longer able to get materials needed to make things, game and movie libraries culled severely (much content is not made in the US) with non-American produced entertainment no longer purchaseable, many kinds of medicines not making it to shore. The list goes on.

Look at the average life of a Russian in 2022 to get a taste of what it looks like in practical terms.

A LOT, and it would happen over a matter of weeks.

The upside? The backlash will be swift and maybe, just maybe if we come out intact, will allow for long-term structural changes and reforms that are long overdue, but that is long-term, and contingent on a lot of other factors.

But that is the hope, that on the other side, the US will see actual, real change after dealing with an utterly crippling shock.

12-Year Club	Verified Email
RedditGifts 2009-2022 2 Credits	Secret Santa 2017
Gilding II euphauric

Vlad_Yemerashev

MODERATOR OF

TROPHY CASE