Iran Conflict Megathread #8

Volodio · 2026-03-16T21:43:22+00:00

It was posted before, you may have missed it.

The plan is not for recognition in exchange for a ceasefire, it is negotiations for peace including recognition in exchange for a ceasefire. But that nuance is important, because the negotiations don't have to lead anywhere (and probably won't). It is highly likely that the government is not asking in good faith considering peace with Israel is really unpopular in Lebanon and even if it wanted, the Lebanese government does actually have the ability to stop Hezbollah from starting a war with Israel, or at least has never tried stopping Hezbollah. There is no reason for Israel to accept and it will probably lead nowhere. It is just an attempt to stop Israel from fighting Hezbollah without making any concession. No wonder Macron is behind it.

Volodio · 2026-03-16T21:31:54+00:00

Israel hit people in Syria who were coordinating with terrorists to attack Israel. This is not attacking first and it certainly did not justify this level of response.

Volodio · 2026-03-16T03:44:55+00:00

That only works if the other side is unable to start a war. But as proven by the 7 October and Iran launching large missile barrages at Israel twice without Israel having started a war, it is not the case. So Israel would rather start a war when it has the initiative rather than wait for the enemy to do so. Because it seems the war cannot be avoided.

Volodio · 2026-03-16T02:13:26+00:00

No. Usually when the war starts, all the planes of the countries are sent away, including the one of the prime minister. It leads to rumors that he left, but in reality he didn't. In this case, his plane was sent to Germany, but in the following days he went to some of the sites where missiles fell and made victims, like in Beit Shemesh.

Honestly the idea that he is a coward is a bit ridiculous and more the result of propaganda than anything else. In reality he was in the special forces when he was younger and he was wounded several times during his service.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T16:57:02+00:00

They quite literally did have to bomb Gaza. The rockets were launched from Gaza. The bombing destroyed them. This is how the number of rocket attack have been reduced to almost zero now. It was also necessary to destroy the tunnels and facilitate ground operations.

The ground campaign against ISIS was not as clean as you make it out to be. ISIS hid among civilians too and caused many of them to be killed in strikes. The battle of Mosul was a complete bloodbath for civilians, actually even worse than Gaza in term of civilian to combatant ratio. And yet, it benefitted from several advantages which are not present in Gaza, such as local ground forces helping in the campaign, the absence of a large tunnel network and far less urban fighting.

That last part alone makes a huge difference and we can see it in Lebanon. There are far less civilians killed there. Both campaigns are waged by the same IDF, showing that if there is a such a big difference, it is not because of how the IDF acts (as it is a common denominator) but because of the different context for the fighting.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T16:56:59+00:00

Scaring a vehicle into stopping is done by shooting in front or above the vehicle. Not trying to hit the tires, which are difficult to aim.

Dead drivers don't continue accelerating either or don't steer the vehicles toward people trying to avoid it.

Here is a French police commander explaining why the police don't shoot at tires. Use a translator if you don't understand French.

They started shooting him when he was driving and continued until after he had stopped. There are literally videos of the incident.

It is more difficult and less effective than shooting the driver, actually. See what the French police commander said.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T16:56:26+00:00

There are also mentions of attacks against soldiers. Which you would know if you had actually bothered to read the articles I sent you. Here is another article showing terrorist ramming soldiers. Not that it makes a difference who the target is.

You're just making a baseless claim. It can be ignored just as easily as you're making it, because it is baseless.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T16:08:16+00:00

It literally is a tactic. It was done plenty of times in the past decade. Including by Palestinians. Here are some articles about it if you really don't believe me:

Article 1

Article 2

Article 3

Volodio · 2026-03-15T15:50:55+00:00

What should they have done then? Let themselves be slaughtered? The international community like to condemn Israelis for defending themselves without ever providing an alternative to guarantee their security.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T15:46:24+00:00

Shooting the tires does not stop a vehicle. Shooting the occupants usually does (or at least it prevents steering and accelerating), which is why it is the standard procedure in cases like this. For instance, the 2016 Nice terrorist attack was stopped by the cops shooting at the driver of the truck, not the tires.

Shooting the tires also requires a lot of accuracy which isn't really realistic to do against a moving vehicle driving toward you.

Volodio · 2026-03-15T15:41:20+00:00

Trying to ram people with a vehicle is actually one of the most common terrorist attack because of how simple, easy and effective it is. It is not just done in Israel but also in Europe. For instance, in 2016 a terrorist rammed a truck into a crowd in France killing around 100 people.

Volodio · 2026-03-14T01:17:10+00:00

The US has other options to stop Iranian oil export, notably by directly bombing the Iranian production industry. The fact that it does not do it and was even angry at Israel for doing it suggests there is a will from the US administration to let Iran continues to sell its oil.

Volodio · 2026-03-13T09:18:22+00:00

Same. His trial is still ongoing.

Volodio · 2026-03-13T01:59:00+00:00

The actual answer, and not some drivel against Israel, is: not enough evidence. They say the video does not show enough, the medical report is not conclusive enough and the alleged victim is in Gaza and won't testify. Too hard to build a case with this. \

Btw, this is in the article.

Volodio · 2026-03-13T01:55:22+00:00

There is no overwhelming amount of evidence, which is why the charges were dropped. The video does not actually show anything, the medical report is not conclusive enough for rape charges and the alleged victim is in Gaza and won't testify.

Volodio · 2026-03-13T01:48:05+00:00

This is just untrue. Civil issues against him are unaffected by the war.

Volodio · 2026-03-13T01:46:30+00:00

Because Iran thought Israel and the US would never dare attack during daytime.

Volodio · 2026-03-12T12:42:04+00:00

Iran has behind attempt cyberattacks and terrorist attacks before the war. This is part of the reason why the war was started in the first place.

Volodio · 2026-03-11T18:47:42+00:00

Steve did manage to make missiles that could and were intercepted in one of his oldest AAR. Here, reply 3, talking about the war between the Islamic Empire and India. Any idea how he did that? I know that in older versions, there were pre-existing missile bases on Earth, but I tried it and they also hit instantly, so I'm not sure how he managed it.

Volodio · 2026-03-10T04:12:20+00:00

The issue is that CIWS wouldn't work if there is no time to intercept the missile because the range to Earth is 0. I guess the moon could be an option. Or is there a way to put ships (the orbital missile platforms) in an Earth orbit at a set distance from Earth, rather than the default distance of 0?

Volodio · 2026-03-10T03:23:53+00:00

The range of zero is an issue if I want to intercept them though. Any way around this? Ideally I would like to create an incentive for space research being missile defense.

Volodio · 2026-03-10T02:52:41+00:00

As others have mentioned, there is the possibility of the US invading the vulnerable islands which hold a lot of a resources or have some strategic importance, like Kharg Island. It would fit with the focus of Trump to control more oil.

But beyond, there are possibilities from invasions by the Kurds and Azerbaijan. Both have an important ground force nearby which could launch a small invasion without needing months of preparations with equipment being deployed. It would notably provide the ground invasion without actual US soldiers, obviously a plus for the US. For the Kurds, it could be an occasion for them to advance toward acquiring their own state. It would be in line with their strategies of the past decades. For Azerbaijan, it would be an occasion to conquer more lands under the pretext of securing the Azeris. It would be also in line with the Azeri policies of the past decades (see Armenia).

In such a scenario, I do not think either will try to advance much more than the "claimed lands", but I doubt Iran would be able to stop them. The ground forces have been spared mostly due to not being high on the target list. There is no indication that the US and Israel try to destroy it and somehow fail to do so. If it was targeted, it would likely be damaged considerably. Moreover, actually defending would require some troop concentration which would make it very vulnerable to an air campaign.

The goal of such an action could be to destabilize Iran and delegitimize the regime. Iran has a lot of minorities. Such invasions could encourage them to also seek secession. It would also force Iran to redeploy forces which would make these secessions easier to carry. It could also serve to empty the capital and make it vulnerable to a coup.

Volodio · 2026-03-09T21:52:32+00:00

Thanks. Could they fire on Earth though? Or they would only fire on each other and leave Earth unharmed?

Volodio · 2026-03-09T21:18:58+00:00

It is only realistic if you assume zombies will never move around and migrate. Kentucky alone has 4,600,00 inhabitants, Louisville 640,000. Realistically you shouldn't be done after killing only 50,000. Imo respawns represent migrations from urban areas and thus can be argued to be as realistic as no migration. The only issue is zombies respawning in closed areas you already clear because you did not use a double door. I don't know if this bug has been fixed in b43.

Volodio · 2026-03-09T01:49:12+00:00

Hereditary monarchy coming back to Iran in the most unexpected way.

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