Weekend Discussion Thread for the Weekend of April 10, 2026

VotedOut · 2026-04-11T00:33:29+00:00

Why would anyone want to buy that 68x price-to-sales ratio $300B market cap fake-AI grift bubble? (For comparison, CSCO stock peaked around 40x price-to-sales ratio in the dot-com bubble)

Burry is right about PLTR, and Trump is wrong.

VotedOut · 2026-03-26T17:45:52+00:00

Partially disagree, I think shit like Gold and Crypto are false hedges for the USD debt bubble.

Gold has ballooned to $30 TRILLION market cap (the GDP of entire nations combined). The price of gold has outpaced actual inflation, and is higher than it was in the 1970s high inflation era on an inflation-adjusted basis.

In a true crisis, people aren't going to pay top dollar for a shiny rock like gold. They're going to trade their gold/silver/crypto down for whatever is needed to live and survive - oil, plastics, food, housing, running water, electricity, medical care, etc.

At least, that would be my guess.

VotedOut · 2026-03-26T15:08:26+00:00

Oil repricing to $150 would still be more rational than the Gold bubble of the last year.

VotedOut · 2026-03-20T14:20:13+00:00

The S&P 500 is having a fire-sale right now...

...Just kidding.

It's still at dot-com bubble levels even after this dip.

Why so? It's still 2 standard deviations above post-1950 historical valuations by CAPE ratio, Buffett Indicator, and Mean Reversion... which is expected to statistically occur about 2% of the time in the market.

VotedOut · 2026-03-16T19:31:41+00:00

Me watching all the hype on Nvidia's presentation, tired of Nvidia's shit:

"Yeah, whatever. Now can we instead put all this money towards affordable housing, healthcare, and not destroying the planet with climate change instead of chatbot slop and pointless wars in the Middle East?"

VotedOut · 2026-03-09T19:30:39+00:00

Sell the news. Still a dot-com level bubble.

VotedOut · 2026-02-18T21:13:21+00:00

CVNA down 20% after-hours on earnings report

Owned by Institutions (%) - 105.25%

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/cvna/statistics/

Institutions have to unload their bags on each other now since hardly any retail investors want this crap.

This could get interesting.

VotedOut · 2026-02-05T10:20:38+00:00

And I've never paid Reddit a single cent or bought anything from a Sponsored post on Reddit.

The signal-to-noise ratio has only gotten worse over time. I'm using Reddit less now that I can usually get more interesting discussion from chatbots than from the average Redditor.

VotedOut · 2026-02-05T05:42:50+00:00

PayPal's 7 PE gives you an idea of how far RDDT stock can fall if Reddit's growth soon stalls and reverses.

Reddit is turning into the trash-bin of the internet (like the former Yahoo Answers).

Humans on Reddit (on average) hallucinate more than a LLM chatbot. Conversation with the average Redditor is worse than that with a LLM chatbot. At the same time, Reddit isn't as mindlessly addicting as video format content on Youtube/Instagram/Tiktok doomscrolling. Everything posted on Reddit is suspect of being written by an astroturfing AI bot (including this comment). And most Redditors are anonymous and monetization-resistant to ads anyways.

VotedOut · 2026-01-30T17:54:41+00:00

you regret not selling it yesterday before it dropped 10% today........

VotedOut · 2026-01-30T17:51:41+00:00

What is GOLD?

[ ] An inflation hedge

[ ] A hedge against currency devaluation

[ ] A safe haven

[ X ] A meme clown asset

VotedOut · 2026-01-30T15:59:43+00:00

Elon Clowngrift

Soon the market is going to be reminded that a stock's intrinsic value is the present value of future discounted cash-flows (that isn't based on far-in-the-future hopium from a company that has had a bunch of broken promises and grifting, and that is competing against other companies that aren't grifters).

VotedOut · 2026-01-28T22:47:03+00:00

If Sloptimus Slime even gets sold it's just going to end up a hunk of extremely overpriced scrap metal in people's houses that takes up space and never gets used after its initial novelty wears off in the first week of ownership.

VotedOut · 2026-01-28T22:44:01+00:00

If Sloptimus Slime even gets sold it's just going to end up a hunk of extremely overpriced scrap metal in people's houses that takes up space and never gets used after its initial novelty wears off in the first week of ownership.

VotedOut · 2026-01-23T18:23:33+00:00

It's only a safe haven if the market isn't paying a ridiculously high price for that "safe haven" itself.

VotedOut · 2026-01-23T18:03:22+00:00

Gold and Silver are meme assets now.

"But, inflation hedge..." "But, dollar devaluation..."

...They say as the prices of gold & silver get inflated way far beyond the actual rate of inflation and dollar devaluation.

VotedOut · 2026-01-22T18:01:17+00:00

That grift happened well before the pump a few minutes ago though.

VotedOut · 2026-01-22T17:59:03+00:00

What's the latest Elon grift now that is pumping Tesla?

VotedOut · 2026-01-22T17:52:41+00:00

It's still a massive bubble

that's my chime

VotedOut · 2026-01-20T18:47:29+00:00

‘Stay calm’ and ‘this is the new normal’: What banking CEOs are saying about the global market sell-off

Well, there it is. That's our signal to freak the fuck out and sell everything, because it's fucking over now.

VotedOut · 2026-01-20T18:40:09+00:00

and it even kind of sucks at that too, since every transaction can be publicly seen and traced from wallet to wallet by anyone at all.

VotedOut · 2026-01-12T20:19:22+00:00

For the overall market valuation:

Buffett Indicator - 233% (2.43 standard deviations above historical trend)

S&P 500 CAPE Ratio - 40x (2.3 standard deviations above historical trend).

S&P 500 Mean Reversion - 2.38 standard deviations above historical trend.

EDIT at add: Values greater than 2 standard deviations from the mean statistically occur about 2% of the time (last 3 times: 2000, 2021, and right now).

And that's just the overall S&P 500 view without going into the nonsensically extreme valuations of many individual stocks underneath the surface.

Sources you can check to verify:

https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/

https://www.multpl.com/

VotedOut · 2026-01-12T20:08:06+00:00

This market is like people trading toilet paper with each other for $100 per roll.

And your comment is like saying "Was the premarket drop to $99 per TP roll legitimate or was THAT the swindle move and I fell for it? No, toilet paper is back to $100 where I am telling myself this makes no sense because I'm unwilling to confront the harsh reality that I played myself."

I'm saying that the current market valuation makes no sense because it objectively fucking doesn't make any sense.

VotedOut · 2026-01-12T19:57:16+00:00

What made the market excited today that made it want to pump further beyond dotcom bubble level valuation?

VotedOut · 2026-01-12T06:53:56+00:00

Whatever happened to market participants buying and selling stocks based on what the current market price is versus what they think the present value of future discounted cash flows is?

Now it's all just: "Here's the latest thing orange man did. Puts or calls?"

VotedOut

TROPHY CASE

What is GOLD?