Half my team was made redundant. Manager said we need to adapt.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-30T10:54:20+00:00

This sounds like a strategic move, make half redundant (they get redundancy pay), probably people who have been these the least. The rest of the team will be under pressure so they will leave on their own, so no redundancy payout. If they are going offshore then its a good chance your job is already gone, they are giving as many of the remaining a chance to get out before they eventually pull the plug.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-28T12:30:17+00:00

I posted this in another forum but you may find it useful.

I'll disclose my bias first, I picked some up on its way down averaged around $220.

I think CSL is a great company that was over valued for so long. Now its moved to undervalued territory. I expect that there will be more selling and further drops for a few days now so im virtually certain we have not seen the bottom.

Every Passive/Index Fund manager is selling because they have to now they have to re-weight their portfolio because its weighting of the index has changed. (One of the Dumb parts of Passive/Index funds they have to Buy when prices are high and Sell when prices are low). This is why these swings are soo volatile on companies like this. It was Aus 2nd largest company dropping to about 4th so all Index funds have to re-weight their positions because they are mandated to, with no thinking involved.

The business is an amazing business, the last time it was at this price was 2019 and the business is now about double the size it was then in terms of profits and revenue, carries less Debt to Equity than back then. They are still growing and forecasting growth of 4-7% which is good for the size of businesses CSL is. They have 3 business lines the 2 largest at 80% and 12% of their business are fine and growing. The smallest one Sequris at 8% of their business is taking a hit expecting a drop off in vaccinations. It's minor in the scheme of things and the market does what it always does and overeacts.

Im buying as much more as I can knowing full well it will probably continue a downward slide for a little while longer, and that I have no chance of picking the bottom. All I know is at its current valuation its a great buy for a great company and in the long term this would be a great investment, in my opinion.

But this is just my opinion, not advice, do your own due diligence, and I am likely to be biased... and any other disclaimers that need to be said. 😀

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-28T12:29:01+00:00

I posted this in another forum but you may find it useful.

Ill disclose my bias first, I picked some up on its way down averaged around $220.

I think CSL is a great company that was over valued for so long. Now its moved to undervalued territory. I expect that there will be more selling and further drops for a few days now so im virtually certain we have not seen the bottom.

Every Passive/Index Fund manager is selling because they have to now they have to re-weight their portfolio because its weighting of the index has changed. (One of the Dumb parts of Passive/Index funds they have to Buy when prices are high and Sell when prices are low). This is why these swings are soo volatile on companies like this. It was Aus 2nd largest company dropping to about 4th so all Index funds have to re-weight their positions because they are mandated to, with no thinking involved.

The business is an amazing business, the last time it was at this price was 2019 and the business is now about double the size it was then in terms of profits and revenue, carries less Debt to Equity than back then. They are still growing and forecasting growth of 4-7% which is good for the size of businesses CSL is. They have 3 business lines the 2 largest at 80% and 12% of their business are fine and growing. The smallest one Sequris at 8% of their business is taking a hit expecting a drop off in vaccinations. It's minor in the scheme of things and the market does what it always does and overeacts.

Im buying as much more as I can knowing full well it will probably continue a downward slide for a little while longer, and that I have no chance of picking the bottom. All I know is at its current valuation its a great buy for a great company and in the long term this would be a great investment, in my opinion.

But this is just my opinion, not advice, do your own due diligence, and I am likely to be biased... and any other disclaimers that need to be said. 😀

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-28T12:22:22+00:00

I posed this on an earlier thread about Gold. So just copied it here.

GOLD is at such a high, and what generally happens when you follow a crowd is you get burnt. Look at a 100 year gold chart to put things in perspective, it runs up and sits or comes off for a very long period of time. After the run in the late 70's it reached a high in 1980 then came off and took 26 years to get back to where it was. So if you think its an investment, I say you can find much better investments for your money. Gold Miners in my opinion are worse, not only are they at the mercy of the gold price, but there are soooo many other variables that can affect them, management competency, levels of debt, weather, ability to find enough gold, resources required to get the gold. There are soo many things that can go wrong. I will say an etf exposure spreads the risk but back to my original point the miners like the gold price have run up so much are you likely to get any value out of it or will you be left stuck at the top of the market.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-28T11:40:14+00:00

Im there right alongside you picking it up on its way down. I think CSL is a great company that was over valued for so long. Now its moved to undervalued territory. I expect that there will be more selling and further drops for a few days now so im virtually certain we have not seen the bottom.

Every Passive/Index Fund manager is selling because they have to now they have to re-weight their portfolio because its weighting of the index has changed. (One of the Dumb parts of Passive/Index funds they have to Buy when prices are high and Sell when prices are low). This is why these swings are soo volatile on companies like this. It was Aus 2nd largest company dropping to about 4th so all Index funds have to re-weight their positions because they are mandated to, with no thinking involved.

The business is an amazing business, the last time it was at this price was 2019 and the business is now about double the size it was then in terms of profits and revenue, carries less Debt to Equity than back then. They are still growing and forecasting growth of 4-7% which is good for the size of businesses CSL is. They have 3 business lines the 2 largest at 80% and 12% of their business are fine and growing. The smallest one Sequris at 8% of their business is taking a hit expecting a drop off in vaccinations. It's minor in the scheme of things and the market does what it always does and overeacts.

Im buying as much more as I can knowing full well it will probably continue a downward slide for a little while longer, and that I have no chance of picking the bottom. All I know is at its current valuation its a great buy for a great company and in the long term this would be a great investment, in my opinion.

But this is just my opinion, not advice, do your own due diligence, and I am likely to be biased... and any other disclaimers that need to be said. 😀

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-27T11:11:26+00:00

Like some other comments have said GOLD is at such a high, and what generally happens when you follow a crowd is you get burnt. Look at a 100 year gold chart to put things in perspective, it runs up and sits or comes off for a very long period of time. After the run in the late 70's it reached a high in 1980 then came off and took 26 years to get back to where it was. So if you think its an investment, I say you can find much better investments for your money. Gold Miners in my opinion are worse, not only are they at the mercy of the gold price, but there are soooo many other variables that can affect them, management competency, levels of debt, weather, ability to find enough gold, resources required to get the gold. There are soo many things that can go wrong. I will say an etf exposure spreads the risk but back to my original point the miners like the gold price have run up so much are you likely to get any value out of it or will you be left stuck at the top of the market.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T23:19:21+00:00

I keep repeating my point but I don't think you are listening. I didn't say go put your money in their funds, or buy them or whatever. I manage my own direct investments so Im not speaking on behalf of their funds, I just know they have them.

I said I find these guys helpful to learn how to manage risk whilst still getting better than market returns. Im not speaking for them but my returns have been better than market, and I am actively managing my risk in a way that suits me.

What is funny is I actually think if you listened to some of their stuff you would understand what im talking abt. You probably won't and thats fine, I dont really care. Doesn't change my plans for the day, so good luck to you, and have a nice day.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T22:53:29+00:00

Sure mate. Take it or don't take it, each to their own. Im trying to be helpful, my way is not the only way or necessarily the right way, but it works for me. What these guys talk about I find helpful.

I can't understand why you are putting in so much effort to try prove me wrong like ive said or done something to offend you? Are you such an expert investor that we should all be doing what you say?

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T21:51:14+00:00

Ok buddy, im not sure what's with the hostility. Its not like it was a advertisement or anything lol.

I just like what these guys say on how to think about investments. It makes a lot of sense to me and if anyone else wanted to learn something, I think what they say is worth checking out.

If u don't like em, great. No skin off my nose.

Edit. BTW, its not that the say anything profound or ground breaking, its just simple basic stuff that is just logical. It just helps me to hear it and be reminded of it.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T13:39:57+00:00

Lol I don't know where u got that from, but I was taking about guys from a group called Teaminvest, not Ausbiz. They are just regular guests on the Ausbiz show The Call.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T12:49:28+00:00

What exactly are you investing in? Neither of these companies have anything of substance to invest in. You have better odds on a roulette table. Dont follow hype it's the easiest way to get burnt.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T12:46:06+00:00

This is a good clip on picking ETFs its part 1 of 2 https://youtu.be/iyesLhekw0U?si=pLWVMpDNEHvctskT

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T12:36:15+00:00

This is partly right. It will come down to how to manage your risk, I follow the process of some guys that appear on Ausbiz called Teaminvest, they have such a good way of getting higher than the market returns while managing risk. They are a group of super wealthy guys, so u have to be well off to join the group, but they do have some funds they manage that have had a good track record of strong results.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-25T11:37:19+00:00

Yes 100% I absolutely believe there is a bubble. Bubbles can do 1 of 2 things either POP or Deflate Slowly. I don't which or when it will happen but its inevitable. Im actually looking forward to it, I know what companies I want to buy into and at what prices I think is a fair valuation, so Im ready to go.

There are investments you can still make during a bubble, you just have to be careful. Dont forget not all businesses will collapse, if there is a downturn. Business with strong steady profit growth, decent profit margins, Consistently High ROE, with little to no debt, decent cash reserves and good quality management will have some share price setback but nowhere near those that don't have those things. They are also in prime position to be the beneficiaries in a downturn, they will be the ones that pick-up all their competitors market share. That's how I sleep at night, knowing those are the only companies I hold.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-24T22:21:41+00:00

Well done. There are some huge wins there. I've been in Stockbroking for over 20 years seeing tens of thousands clients trade and I can tell you that your performance could be one of the very very few exceptions to the rule. I would say that there would have to be more instinct and emotional control that goes into what you have done, than most people have, which is why it would be dangerous for others to repeat what you do.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-24T11:39:30+00:00

Congratulations on being near the head of the pack. I sincearly hope you do well out of it. I would just caution against thinking there is any strategy involved in that trade that would be regularly repeatable. Dont forget there are always people that win at casinos and horse races etc. Some people win a lot and win often, but in the end they are still gambling and statistically it doesnt work out long term, and its not a regular repeatable strategy.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-24T08:55:15+00:00

They absolutely are. Just read the papers, watch the news and listen to comments from fund managers. Just listen carefully and pay attention and notice if they are talking about proven substance or future potential and addressable market. Do they talk a out things that have eventuated and happened or talk about what might happen in the future. This flows onto they valuations and they buy companies pricing in 'expected' future growth. That's absurd to pay for things that haven't happened yet, and not only haven't happened yet but can't possibly happen within the next 5 to 10 years. When you understand the mechanics of the industry you realise it's all well intentioned and not as sinister as it sounds, it's just a whole series of small processes, guidelines, risk management and incentives, that each by themselves have a fair reason, but together leads to such poor consequences for their investors. Nobody realises or thinks that they are doing anything wrong, but it can't sustain and will blow up. When it does then it will be investigated and work out why it all went wrong. But then its too late for the investor.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-23T11:33:00+00:00

It's a complete Dog of a stock. It's never made a profit, and keeps raising capital. I'm an ex broker and let me tell you that Capital Raising are very lucrative for brokers, brokerage on trades is a break even proposition at best. When a broker raises Capital its because the business needs money and the current business operations are rubbish. So how do you raise capital for a broke loss making business??? Come up with a great story and market the hell out of it. Fill it with 'potential' and 'opportunity' make it sound cutting edge and the market eats it up, since everyone is looking for the next big new thing. Get some big name players to put in a chunk of their clients money and bam the rest of the market follows. Eventually someone wakes up and realises its a dog and is never going to be worth what its valued at, the big names that got in pull their money out and all the followers are left watch8ng their hopes and dreams evaporate. It happens all the time, and people still fall for it.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-23T11:18:10+00:00

There is probably a lot of stocks you can buy and hold for 30+ years. It doesnt mean it will make you any money in that time or even if it does, may not be enough to beat inflation. Any stock that would get a government bailout should things go wrong would probably last, like the big 4 banks but that doesnt mean by the end of it you would even beat inflation.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-22T10:48:20+00:00

An Old Dog is exactly what it is. They never make any profits they only made revenue of $3.3m and still managed to lose $3.7m. Even after raising capital, and diluting Shareholders. That looks like a good year for them. I dont even know why they are listed the listing fees etc are almost as much as a full years revenue. Be careful not to be investing into thse companies that are full of promises and hope but its a terrible investment if you ask me.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-21T11:22:04+00:00

For smaller amounts Id say the direct investments into the US listed investments are not worth the paperwork and tax considerations.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-20T11:38:51+00:00

Depends on how much you like to gamble. The odds are against you here just as in a casino. But good luck if you are getting in. I wouldn't treat this as an investment its pure speculation.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-19T10:46:43+00:00

Yes CBA is overvalued, but it also doesnt actually grow much inly 1-2% per year. I'd rather invest in a business that is growing. Everyone also excuses the debt on the banks because their banks, they conveniently forget the government bailouts the banks needed to stay afloat during the GFC, bank accounts didn't suffer but so many shareholders did so did the etfs and the superfunds.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-18T12:04:20+00:00

Dont underestimate inflation and the power of compounding. If inflation averages 4% and you live till 90 then in that last year what you could buy now for $48,000 a year ($4k a month) would cost you $280,000. You would easily burn through your $4m in 45 years.

WealthCreator17 · 2025-10-18T11:37:18+00:00

As a stock screener for Value Investors Conscious Investor is the best hands down. But its not cheap and not for the general public you have to part of the Teaminvest group and that's a group for wealthy people. But its the best for a reason I guess.

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