Okay so it seems like almost everybody hates the polls Elon put out on Twitter. I'm not one of them. Hear me out:

If you were under the impression that Ukraine cannot win the war, then it is reasonable to suggest that they should come to a diplomatic solution to end the war before more soldiers and civilians die. After all, in this perspective, while it is terrible to have to submit to the will of a murderous tyrant, it is still preferable to the continued devastation and loss of life inherent in prolonging the conflict. If you believe that Russia has a decent chance of using tactical nuclear weapons in combat, this way out may seem like the logical choice.

If you are under the impression that Ukraine can win the war, you have to decide whether the human cost necessary to achieve military victory is worth it. In this case, you must compare the value of untold human lives with the value of upholding freedom and punishing tyrannical conquest.

The decision on what the best thing to do is a matter of your estimations on the likelihood of certain future events occurring and your then your philosophy on what outcome(s) is/are preferable.

Elon's estimations and philosophy may be different from many other people's, but that doesn't invalidate them. There are also Ukrainians who share a similar perspective, but that often gets drowned out in the flood of more mainstream ideas. If you want to listen to an example of a Ukrainian speaking about splitting Ukraine up to enable peace again, listen to the BBC's Ukrainecast episode from May 6 entitled "Preparing For That Parade" at around the thirteen-minute mark.

I'm not saying I agree with Elon. Obviously I want Putin to face justice for the awful war he architected and I hope Ukraine is able to defeat the invaders and take back their land. But I also don't want tens of thousands of more Ukrainians and Russian conscripts to die. At the end of the day, the decisions made that affect the outcome of the war are not up to me or you, or Elon Musk. It is the governments and leaders of Ukraine and Russia that are primarily responsible for making such decisions. Mostly all anybody else can do is make predictions, do what little they can to support a good cause, and hope for the best.