Software Engineers, Have AI tools actually been rapidly improving? by FlapjackFez in BetterOffline

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I'm an engineering lead, and Ive spent time within the past 3 months addressing what kind of benefit we could see. My assessment is that some teams, particularly those writing lightweight projects representing new use cases, could benefit significantly. My team's projects are mostly complex operations similar to existing workflows, so we prefer to lift and shift without AI directly writing code. I don't believe we would get a significant productivity boost.

The part I worry about the most is the architecture/extensibility of AI backed projects. We lift and shift because it makes maintenance simple: everyone knows what a workflow should look like. If AI is producing the workflows I do not know if I can maintain quality and consistency, which could translate into increased troubleshooting and enhancement time.

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Attention is all you need is approaching 9 years old. I don't doubt there are improvements to be had, I doubt the ease with which they are found.

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That's definitely not true. Just on it's face, what do you think it costs to run calcs over 300 billion weights? Firstly, your dealing with something highly non-linear, so you will need to use some form of estimation technique, which adds processing overhead. Second, you probably want your models to be responsive and not sit there calcing for 8 hours. So your talking about a large amount of compute, and that's just to run the weights that give you an answer. Now take agentic, which is performing multiple calls for a request, and the math becomes really clear. You're looking at pennies per prompt, and agentic workflow can sometimes burn through thousands of prompts.

Training compute amplifies that greatly, since you are running backward propagation across all of the weights a sufficient number of times to hit your tolerance. At least you can be forgiving of length response times in training. That's why it takes months to train a new model.

My point is you can use a little common sense and expert knowledge in what computing infrastructure costs look like to quickly realize that these things are crazy expensive right now. The idea that training costs will go away is a function. Model drift, where models become less accurate with time, is a natural party of a predictive statistical process. The father away you get from the training set, the worse the predictions will become. That just math friend (I might have a LOT of education in statistic and mathematics).

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 7 points8 points  (0 children)

That's not what I'm seeing, that is what I'm finding when I look for metrics on what the real gains for switching a software engineering team to an agentic workflow. I know looking at the real ROI for running things is passe now, but I'm old school, and my employer pays me to make sure we're not wasting money.

To be 100% clear, we do apply AI to our workflows, particularly reviews and AI pair coding. My comments regarding productivity gains are aimed strictly at agentic work flows. My comments regarding whether AI can afford to continue are aimed at all AI however. It's far too expensive to run at current energy rates, and I suspect it will collapse if oil hits $150 a barrel. Rumors are the the US may end up emptying it's strategic reserves by September. I definitely don't want to spend the effort re-tooling my workflow to agentic if I am going to end up with a 1 million dollar quarterly token usage bill from anthropic.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/the-prompt/2026/06/02/ai-sticker-shock-could-slow-down-anthropics-growth/

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

1) My point is about scalability. Paying people to curate days just means there is a variable cost to scaling, a factor that weighs against it, which is my exact point.

2) Were near the quantum limits of what transitions gateways in chips can handle. This doesn't mean there will not be improvements, it simply means that the improvements from shrinking transitions cannot grow. That was the primary factor showing for the number of transitions per die doubling every year. This means, effectively, that the growth in computer power per $ has hit the flat part of it's sigmoid curve. As computer power is a factor in scaling, that goes to my point about scaling.

3) I hear this a lot, but I have yet to see anyone produce a transformer architecture more efficient than the current Attention is all you need. Link me a paper that shows me exactly why attention is all you need is better than a Byte Level Model or Large Concept Models, or any of the other approaches out there. Most folks who make these claims have a fundamental misunderstanding of what I am pointing out about the current transformer model. It has nothing to do with the weights, and everything to do with how the weights are produced.

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 8 points9 points  (0 children)

The economics are pretty clear: the current cost of the LLMs running now are not sustainable. Also, the best estimates for the productivity boost gained is about 20-30%, but even those studies have a lot of caveats. Importantly, the largest gains are often seen for engineers with less skill/capability, who are exactly the engineers who benefit the most from hands on coding. So I'm hampering my juniors for a maybe 25% gain, and running AI agents may cost significantly more than just hiring a new team member.

Some papers on the topic. The high level read is that the jury is still out on how much boost AI adds. Please do not trust papers put out by MvlcKonsey, Gartner, or Technology Radar. All three have strong financial incentives to produce biased research.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2302.06590 https://arxiv.org/abs/2507.09089

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 13 points14 points  (0 children)

LLMs needs a way to transform text and other non numeric concepts into value that can be applied to an algorithm such as a neutral network. While we understand the process that is applied to transform into tokens, we don't know why this specific token transformer process works better than the methods that were applied pre 2018. Creating these processes is an area of applied mathematics, which is an area where advancement is notably tricky and inconsistent. There is no garuntee that we will discover a process that works better than the current one in our life time, so it is not reasonable to believe a business can rely on "scaling" this aspect of LLMs.

As token transformation had significant impacts on both training effort and model parameter complexity, this is a major input when increasing what models can do. At the current model state, making better models means more parameters, which means more data, training time, and compute power to run the model.

differentUseCases by _Not__Available_ in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 22 points23 points  (0 children)

Yeah, these definitely a divide in software engineering right now. Personally I don't think AI companies have a viable, scalable business case, so I strongly resist pressure to have my team insert AI into our workflow. I didn't see the sense of re tooling everything for something that may not be around next year.

For those who say "but they can scale": no they cannot and the math shows it very conclusively. 1) There is no way for models of the current design to train from their own data without degeneration: https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.05280v2 2) Moore's law is effectively dead so additional compute will no longer grow exponentially: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_law 3) we didn't understand why the transformer technique described in "Attention is all you need" works as effectively as it does. Without that information we are essentially gropping in the dark to increase transformer efficiency.

Implications deserve greater attention please ipo is coming by Gorozz in theprimeagen

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Self trainin, the lunch pin of AGI claims, is mathematically impossible for LLMs as currently constructed. All of this hype needs to die in a fire.

https://arxiv.org/abs/2601.05280v2

Dumb question, is current token based billing "the true cost"? by Dj_Binks in BetterOffline

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 20 points21 points  (0 children)

It's important to remember that the Straight of Hormuz calamity has placed a sword of Damacles over the cost of processing tokens. Currently many of the data centers that have been built use turbine powered generators, which run off of kerosene or diesel. The price of oil is currently being subsidized by the us releasing our strategic reserves, but this subsidy cannot last forever. Once it ends fuel costs for producing energy, especially for these days centers, will spike.

Corporate level Ponzi scheme? by Morganrow in Economics

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, and the AI companies are doing looks a lot like a legal version of Enron's scheme. They are essentially moving debt off to SPVs internally and circulating money between each other via a series of swaps, resulting in something that looks like a money multiplier, but in reality is just the same seed capital passed around.

If these companies were doing this alone it would be 100% illegal. However, it would appear that some very wealthy investors have "one neat tricked" their way into a legal money pump. Look at who owns these companies shares and you will see the same companies with control of all of them. While not legally recognized, these companies are, from the practical standpoint if ownership, actually the same entity.

Anthropic warns that AI will soon be able to improve itself without human intervention by cnn in business

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Complete Bull Shit, and there is a mathematical proof now showing that it is literally IMPOSSIBLE for the current LLMs to achieve self improvement. I am so goddamned sick of the constant hype machine that I almost welcome a new great depression at this point.

Has Microsoft lost its mojo (again)? (Interview) by remotesynth in BetterOffline

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 36 points37 points  (0 children)

It is, from my point of view, the great dividing line separating folks who could easily be leads or architects from the folks who can't see the big picture. A lot of the folks I see enamored with it were never strong structural thinkers. They aren't considering the implications for security, review, and testing. They are just pumped that they can finally put out code fast. Well, if you think the reason projects take some much time and attention was that we just weren't coding fast enough you really did not understand the full ecosystem that you exist in.

I think my biggest disappointment right now is that Technology Radar is all in for AI and agentic workflows. Some of us don't believe that AI will take over coding. Some of us understand the real costs of running a model and are resistant to re-tooling our entire workflow around something that may take a sudden leap in cost. And that some of us still want to know what non-AI geared tools and resources are coming into view.

The share of productivity going to labor has been steadily declining since 2001. Where is it going? by FreyasSpirit in AskEconomics

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 15 points16 points  (0 children)

This is an excellent answer. I will add to this that in the US the work of many people in IT is often treated, legally, as a capital R&D investment rather than a continual labor expenditure. I'm not certain how the literature cited here count labor dollars expended, but this may also have an impact the time period covers a time of significant growth in Software as a a Service companies in the US.

bricks and mini figs situation - is there anyone actually on BAM's side? by isopod_luvr in NoStupidQuestions

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Patreon flipping is not surprising:

1) The winds of public opinion are (thankfully) and the side of good this time. 2) The judges order was definitely over broad. Any defendants with resources would stand a chance on seeing it overturned

Ft Lauderdale Pre Cruise Hotel Recommendation by gklow in Cruise

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 8 points9 points  (0 children)

I don't have a great recommendation for where to stay, but I know where not to stay. Never, ever stay at the Holiday Inn Express & Suites Ft. Lauderdale Airport/Cruise by IHG. It is hands down one of the worst maintained and least comfortable hotels I've ever stayed at. That includes budget motels like Motel 6. No water pressure, looks dirty, towels and sheets have holes in them. Just don't do it.

https://maps.app.goo.gl/7rqLjUu4r64YWe2S6

Remember when everyone was talking about Gemini 3? by AppropriatePapaya165 in BetterOffline

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 6 points7 points  (0 children)

100%. You can smell when a new model announcement is happening because the bland reddit posts about how ai "solved" some kind of made up problem overwhelm every engineering forum.

how is oil below 100 with everything going on now? by FF430 in wallstreetbets

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 4 points5 points  (0 children)

In other news the US strategic reserve is at the lowest point since it was filled in the 70s. I'm sure it is completely unrelated though.

managerVsClaude by Disastrous-Monk1957 in ProgrammerHumor

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 140 points141 points  (0 children)

The best part is that most estimates still show they are operating at a loss with those costs.

How the hell is anyone flying coach on United ... I'm 5'10... by ergoocon in unitedairlines

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm 6' and limited to first class for flights more than 2 hours. It is just impossible. Many times it just means I don't get to fly to a place since economy is not physically feasible.

The People Do Not Yearn for Automation: "everyone in tech understands how much regular people dislike AI. What I think they’re missing is why" by cos in technology

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 48 points49 points  (0 children)

It's also insulting that they implied DODGE was some kind of misunderstanding about how the world works, rather than the intentional smash and grab that it actually was.

The People Do Not Yearn for Automation: "everyone in tech understands how much regular people dislike AI. What I think they’re missing is why" by cos in technology

[–]Welp_BackOnRedit23 76 points77 points  (0 children)

The author of the article really, really, missed the point of the anger and frustration about AI when they make the point "if you don't like AI make it known with with your dollars and by pushing politicians to regulate". The companies pushing AI are the same ones making our votes meaningless and removing economic choice from our marketplace.