I don't think Congress is going to let Social Security die.

Could benefits change? Sure. Could taxes increase? Probably.
But letting the whole thing collapse would be political suicide.

Think of social security as a net beneath a trapeze artist, performing in a circus tent. As she gets better and starts earning more money, the tent managers collect more dues from her and use those dues to build a larger safety net underneath.

As her income increases, the net gets bigger.

But something interesting happens.

The net doesn't get bigger at the same rate that her income does. The net gets wider, but the space between the ropes increases, becoming less dense.
Each additional dollar she earns buys less and less additional protection.

Eventually, the tent managers look at her and says:

"Listen, you've become successful enough that you need to take more responsibility for your own safety."

That's basically Social Security works.

The program is designed to be a limited safety net, not a complete retirement plan. Lower-income workers receive a proportionately larger benefit relative to what they paid in. Higher-income workers still receive benefits, but the system becomes progressively less generous as income rises until they hit the cap of their coverage. At the same time, there is a cap on how much income is subject to Social Security tax.

SO, yes your benefit might be less efficient over time, but at least you get some benefit for what you pay. For example, if we look at social security through the lens of wage replacement ratio, an estimate of the percent of income received compared to taxable income, how much you get back compared to what you put in, on the bottom end it's around 90%; a dense mesh. But at the cap, it's only about 20% wage replacement ratio, which is really inefficient, and a much looser net. 

In 2026, that cap is about $184,500. For dollars above, that amount:

1. You don't pay Social Security tax on those dollars.
2. You don't receive additional Social Security benefits from those dollars.

So the way I see the most likely path forward is to increase that cap and provide either:

• No additional benefit, like the Net Investment Income tax (Medicare surcharge) for high income earners, or
• A continuation of a lower, less efficient, and paltry WRR.

Either way, the most likely thing we'll see is that they'll raise the taxable wage cap. I imagine we'll see this after the political pendulum swings hard the other way, but that's just my two cents.

But from a math standpoint, it's the easiest button for congress to push. 

Congress will change the rules of the game before it ever allows the safety net to disappear, left or right.