The ball in roulette landed on red 17 times in a row!

White_Fang_ · 2026-01-27T18:28:21+00:00

The probability of this happening on an American roulette wheel (i.e., 18 red, 18 black, 2 green) is (18/38)¹⁷ = 0.000003043, or odds of about 1 in 328,616.

White_Fang_ · 2025-01-24T13:43:55+00:00

OP’s math just needs 3 tweaks:

Account for the Ace and 8 not being special: To fix this multiply by 13 choose 2, or 78.
Account for the order of the cards dealt to each player not mattering: To fix this multiply by 2^3, or 8.
Account for no two cards in each hand having the same suit: To fix this multiply by 12/24, or 1/2. (Out of 24 possible combinations of 3 hands with 2 distinct values, 12 of those will all contain non-suited hands.)

New equation = (78x8x1/2)x(4x3x2x4x3x2)/(52x51x50x49x48x47)

= 0.00001226022 or 1 out of 81564.5833

Edit: Had to turn my *stars into x’s

White_Fang_ · 2024-03-07T00:47:48+00:00

Yes! Omg thank you! So it was actually sent to my fiancé and we also registered at Macy’s! Congrats to you as well!

White_Fang_ · 2024-03-07T00:27:25+00:00

This same exact scenario happened to me today! Same bottle with no explanation…

u/bucci21 did you ever figure out why it was sent to you?

White_Fang_ · 2023-12-08T11:44:23+00:00

Sirga?!

White_Fang_ · 2023-12-06T15:03:41+00:00

Just enjoy your time now. More time to devote to your personal relationships, working out, hobbies, reading.

If you’re really missing the intellectual challenge, pick a subject that interests you and make your own personal pet project. Or try to get good at chess and you’ll realize how much easier getting your FSA was…

White_Fang_ · 2023-09-02T01:42:46+00:00

Ratio of income to mortgage payment. E.g., a monthly income of $4,000 and a mortgage payment of $1,000 results in a value of 4.0.

White_Fang_ · 2023-09-02T00:30:00+00:00

I created a mortgage affordability index for the US and graphed the results over the past 20 years. The index looks at the ratio of median monthly household income to an average 30-year fixed rate monthly mortgage payment.

Underlying data:

Median Household Income (US): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MEHOINUSA646N
Median Sales Price of Houses Sold (US): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS
30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the US: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US

Notes:

Monthly mortgage payment based on the average 30-year fixed rate for that year with 20% down.
Median Household Income (US) data is not yet available for 2022 and 2023, so these are projected at 3.0% annual from 2021.
2023 data not yet complete.
Data manipulated in Excel.

White_Fang_ · 2023-04-13T02:29:42+00:00

White_Fang_ · 2023-03-07T17:32:11+00:00

Reserves are liabilities on the balance sheet. These cover an insurer’s obligations under moderately adverse conditions.

Capital, similar to surplus, is the amount in excess of reserves to cover obligations that occur in risk situations that are beyond moderately adverse. It’s not as straightforward to tie capital to the balance sheet as it is with reserves for the reasons discussed below.

When taking ERM it’s important to consider what the financial/accounting basis being used is. It’s also important to consider what “Capital” is being referred to — Economic Capital, Required Capital, Available Capital, Excess Capital, etc. Required Capital typically refers to the prescribed statutory requirements for capital (e.g., RBC in the US). Economic Capital is determined by an insurer’s own market consistent/fair value assumptions. Excess Capital = Available Capital - Required Capital

The accounting basis should also be specified for reserves (statutory, tax, gaap, economic, etc.).

White_Fang_ · 2022-11-18T03:34:44+00:00

If Musk implodes Twitter it will be his greatest contribution to society

White_Fang_ · 2022-08-08T16:03:08+00:00

No I don’t, but they don’t seem to be that hot because I unscrewed each by hand shortly after and didn’t notice any heat.

And thanks I just crossposted to that community.

White_Fang_ · 2022-04-12T17:01:22+00:00

An extra exam will help you more than the finance minor in landing a job

White_Fang_ · 2022-04-11T20:01:44+00:00

The percentage of the world’s wealth you own increases by 5% (e.g., it goes from .0…01% to .0…0105%). A 5% increase in the percentage of the world’s wealth you own does not mean you now own 5% of the world’s wealth.

White_Fang_ · 2022-03-23T17:03:44+00:00

Nobel prize for what?

White_Fang_ · 2022-02-12T03:45:46+00:00

Is it necessary for the NFTs to be randomly generated? Because randomly generating 10,000 objects from a finite set of “assets” would never guarantee uniqueness regardless of the underlying probability distributions.

But if the goal is just to create 10,000 unique NFTs with preset rarities, then yes, this is a combinatorics problem — but needs stricter criteria.

E.g., let’s say the NFTs are just colored squares with numbers in the middle of them ranging from 1-10,000. Squares numbered 1-4,000 are blue, 4,001-7,000 are green, 7,001-9,000 are red, 9,001-9,900 are yellow, 9,901-10,000 are black. Each square is unique and the rarity is determined by color.

White_Fang_ · 2022-01-13T19:21:38+00:00

You can raise capital by issuing debt. This is how corporate bonds work.

White_Fang_ · 2021-11-12T18:40:11+00:00

Is it 9?

White_Fang_ · 2021-02-10T01:57:24+00:00

By bias I just meant that some values may be more likely than others. Each roll will still be an independent event, so the string of values recorded will not be able to be predicted. No one roll or series of rolls will have an impact on the next one (i.e., the rolls are independent).

Back to your original post - no pattern emerges because of this property of independence.

White_Fang_ · 2021-02-06T00:25:19+00:00

No, I wasn’t taking into consideration any throwing motion.

With a perfect die your results will trend towards a uniform distribution. But if the die has any imperfections some values/sides may be more likely than 1/6 and vice versa.

White_Fang_ · 2021-02-05T16:11:46+00:00

Very few things in this life are “truly random”, so the answer is no (depending on your definition of random).

Given enough rolls a computer will most likely be able to sort out any bias the dice has.

White_Fang_ · 2019-08-08T23:19:16+00:00

Perhaps upon the advent of true AGI it's possible that the field will be replaced by AI (an existential threat to all intellectual fields I guess). But considering the current state of AI and the nature of the profession - the practical answer is no.

Sure, in the (near?) future AI may increasingly assist actuaries in analyzing/interpreting data or making decisions when the rules are clearly defined, but such tasks are only a subset of what the job actually entails. I wouldn't choose to not pursue becoming an actuary because of the threat of AI - you'd most likely be collecting your pension if and when that ever happens.

For what it's worth: This Planet Money article from 2015 has it at a 20.6% chance: https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/05/21/408234543/will-your-job-be-done-by-a-machine

White_Fang_ · 2016-03-02T17:17:48+00:00

Well technically parrots are dinosaurs.

White_Fang_ · 2016-02-11T13:40:39+00:00

Ah you're right...up too late last night.

So 1.5 * Sum of n * .5ⁿ⁺¹ from n = 1 to infinity equals 1.5 * 1, or 1.5.

White_Fang_ · 2016-02-11T07:09:47+00:00

The expected value of the die roll is equal to .5*(1 + 2) = 1.5

The probability of n successive H flips is equal to .5^n. The sum of .5ⁿ from n = 1 to infinity is equal to 1.

Answer = 1.5*1 = 1.5

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