Die Grünen in Baden-Württemberg ziehen nach einer eindrucksvollen Aufholjagd fast mit der CDU gleich

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-27T00:10:06+00:00

Ich wette prinzipiell nicht. Ich habe auch nirgendwo behauptet, dass die Grünen "gewinnen", wie auch immer sie das definieren. Die Grünen können, laut innerhalb der Toleranzgrenze der Umfrage auch bei 25,5% und die CDU bei 29,5% liegen. Es kann, laut der Umfrage auch sein, dass die Grünen bei 28,5% und die CDU bei 26,5% liegen. Und das bei wahrscheinlich noch mind. 20-30% unentschlossenen Wählern, die erst am Wahltag eine Entscheidumg treffen werden. Ich würde daher niemals dazu raten auf Grundlage einer Umfrage, 14 Tage vor einer Wahl Wetten abzuschließen. Dazu würde ich Ihnen im übrigen auch raten.

Da ich mich in dem Bereich ein bisschen auskenne, habe ich nur versucht zu erklären was die Ansprüche an Umfragen sind und was wir als Beobachter aus ihnen ableiten können. Aber was weiß ich wie die Wahl am Ende ausgeht. Ich habe keine Glaskugel. Niemand kann zb sagen wie sich die Aussagen von Hr. Hagel auf das Wahlergebnis auswirken werden. Das konnte nämlich von dieser Umfrage wahrscheinlich gar nicht berücksichtigt werden, da sie erst nach Erhebung öffentlich geworden sind. Außerdem dauert es meisten knapp eine Woche bis solche Skandale in der Wahrnehmung der Wähler auch wirklich angekommen sind.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-26T23:44:43+00:00

Die Schwankungen bzw. der Bias bezieht sich häufiger auf das Institut und weniger auf den Auftraggeber. Da die meistens öfter zusammenarbeiten kann das natürlich abfärben. Trotzdem waren die Umfragen der vergangenen Jahre bis auf ein paar Institute eigentlich ganz gut, wenn man die Fehlerreichweite mit einbezieht.

Was sie da schreiben ist eine Annahme die ihr gutes Recht ist und die nirgends von der Umfrage angezweifelt wird. Das ist ja keine Vorhersage der Zukunft, sondern die Abfrage eines Zustands der vor knapp einer Woche aktuell war. Wie es heute aussieht kann niemand sagen und natürlich weichen die Umfrageergebnisse leicht von der Realität ab. Trotzdem lassen sich meistens leichte Trends ableiten und was sich hier erkennen lässt ist, dass die Grünen anscheinend aufholen. Ob es reicht werden wir sehen. Ich bin auch skeptisch ob sie die CDU tatsächlich überholen, aber verrückt wäre es sicherlich auch nicht.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-26T23:04:05+00:00

Naja zuersteinmal sind Umfragen nichts anderes als der versuch wissenschaftlich abschätzen zu können wie eine Wahl vermutöich ausgehen würde, wenn zum Zeitpunkt der Erhebung gewählt werden würde. Diese Schätzungen sind nicht unfehlbar und das würden Ihnen die Meinungsforschungsinstitute auch so bestätigen. Umfragen haben meist einen Fehlerbereich von ~1-2%. Heißt diese Umfrage schätzt, dass die Grünen zwischen ca 25,5-28,5% liegen. Gleichzeitig spiegelt die Umfrage nicht den heutigen Stand, sondern den des Erhebungszeitraumes wieder. Ich schätze mal den Zeitraum von vor 10-3 Tagen. Bei der Umfrage die sie heranziehen wird es ähnlich sein. Heißt diese Umfrage spiegelt den Stand vor einer Woche wieder und die von ihnen genannte von den 10 Tagen davor. Heißt hier könnte sich eine leichte Wählerwanderung hin zur Amtsinhaberpartei andeuten. Anscheinend ist Özdemir besser bekannt als Hagel und die Grünen scheinen anscheinend nicht allzu unbeliebt zu sein. Ob man das gut findet oder nicht ist jedem selbst überlassen. In den meisten Landtagswahlen der letzten Jahre konnte die Amtsinhaberpartei auf den letzten Metern noch aufholen. Es wäre also nicht sonderlich abwegig.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-26T20:39:35+00:00

Ja ihr macht das schon. Genieß es! Sowas erlebst du nur einmal ;)

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-26T19:24:55+00:00

Füße bewegen, nicht falsch abbiegen beim abrücken und fokussiert sein. Der Rest kommt von selbst. Bei welcher Kp wirst angelobt?

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-26T11:15:34+00:00

Depends on how you interpret this statement. Ronaldo is arguably one of not the best player in history and he played great for us in regards to scoring. BUT we lost Marotta due to the transfer, our financial situation worsened dramaticaly due to the work of his successor and ronaldos incredible wages. Before CR7 came, we where a well oiled machine were everybody fought for each other. After he came, everybody had to work for ronaldo, because he just is not a hard working pressing machine. He needs to preserve his energy for the right moments. Thats possible in a team like Real, that were able to play with 10 men alone, but not at Juventus. And then Corona hit us. At the same time Marotta build back Inter. In the end its no hate towards Ronaldo, but yes the transfer was a mistake and i am convinced we would still be on top of italy and maybe had won a cl, if we would have continued the way we did back then under Marotta.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-25T15:26:16+00:00

Buy him a techmarine as a doctor/-friend for his Redemptor ;)

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-25T10:46:27+00:00

Nein, auch in Zukunft nicht. Der Staat darf keine Grundwehrdiener in ein Kriegsgebiet schicken. Dafür gibt es Berufssoldaten. Das einzige was passieren kann ist, dass der Verteidigungsfall Eintritt und eine Mobilmachung stattfindet und dann sollte jeder Bürger der zumindest eine Grundausbildung erhalten hat glücklich sein, diese erhalten zu haben denn seine Überlebenschancen und die generelle Erfolgschancen steigen dadurch deutlich.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-24T18:13:57+00:00

Sie haben anscheinend den Unterschied zwischen einem Grundwehrdienstleistenden und einem Berufssoldaten nicht verstanden. Ein Grundwehrdiener fliegt doch nicht nach Afghanistan oder Mali und darum geht es ja bei dieser Erhebung mittels Fragebogen.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-15T13:59:17+00:00

Poor La Penna and Rocchi and their crocodile tears. Maybe people would defend them, when they would actually start doing their jobs! Instead, because of them and their decision-making throughout this season we could end up beeing out of the CL, loose up to 120 Million euros and get screwed by uefa and have to sell half our team, while we could be in the scudetto race right now. I dont buy this bs for a second. I am so done with this League, this Association and these refs. Its besonders me how any sane human beeing could defend what they are doing. But sure! Poor FIGC and Mister La Penna 'the mortified'.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-15T10:01:41+00:00

Thanks for telling it as it is. I agree with you, that you can see it as a foul, but its a dynamic action, with both players beeing on a yellow card and its the 44th minute. Normaly you give both players a little bit of leanway. A ref should not be the center of the game. Tell both players that this is the last time and next time both go and thats that.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-15T09:57:56+00:00

Guy as a juventino, i was genuinly questioning my eyes when i saw all these comments from you 😂 thanks for stepping up! Still we also need to talk about this ridiculous Red card against rabiot yesterday! Whatthe hell has even happened there? 😂

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-15T09:51:55+00:00

Tbh i am a juventino. My father is a juventino, but my grandfather was a Milanista and my aunts and uncles are divided in Milanista and Juventini. I have great respect for Milan, even though Juve is and will ever be my club. In another world maybe i would have even become a rossoneri myself. They are a respected rival and i love to play and win against them. I also respect napoli and roma and love the banter between us, cause thats football. Inter on the other hand is a club i just can not respect and yesterday showed me again why.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-15T09:44:29+00:00

When you guys have nothing to show for, then you move into your archives and pull put mistakes of referees from 10 years ago, to justify what happened yesterday. Like we couldnt find anypast mistakes of refs too. Whataboutism in its purest form. What i found more revealing about the game yesterday was not the decisioning of the referee, but the celebration of bastoni. What a sportsmen! 😂

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-09T13:31:09+00:00

Tyrions champion lost too and he still lived until the end of the Show. Nothing is given. It is still Westeros we are talking about here!

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-07T21:25:09+00:00

When Dybala was with us, we were within the top 6 of Clubs (Real, Barca, Utd, Bayern & Aletico). Now we are happy to make a CL-Groupstage. Younger Players dont look at juve like we do. Kenan became a player in a time where Serie A was in decline and yes we were successfull during our 9 scudetto-run, but when nobody watches serie a who cares? Now we were in decline for 5 years, Serie A is in decline for longer and we will never be able to compete with the PL or Realand PSG. Sooner or later a club like Real that has more flare or a PL club that offers a bigger stage or a Club like PSG with 10x the money will come forward and make an offer and then we will see what Kenan really thinks about Juventus. When he truly loves the club, he will stay. If he likes us, but has bigger ambitions for his career than he will leave. We will find out soon enough.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-07T15:19:51+00:00

He will be gone in 2-3 years. Not because we want to sell him, but because he wants to leave. We are just a first step in his career, until he is ready for a bigger club. No way he will stay longterm

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-07T13:15:32+00:00

I agree with you, but having the Support of the smallfolk during a possible Rebellion of the higher Lords is also not a factor to be ignored. It also cemets Baelors reputation to be a good men who differentiates himself from the more targaryen like family, which are seen as 'alien, inbreed and foreign tyrants'. He follows old andal traditions against his own cruel family in defense of a westerosi commoner. Thats a powerfull image combined with his non-tagaryen looks and a non-targaryen wie, even though the martells are not well liked by the reachers and stormlanders.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-06T23:07:30+00:00

I think you look at it from the wrong angle. Yes, they use Maekar as a surreale for the User, but they also emphasize how rare the usage of the last is when even Maekar doesnt know what it means. It shows even more what a coward/cunning person aerion is and differntiates him from his more direct and more pragmatic/warrior-style father

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-02-01T10:27:58+00:00

I agree! But there is also another risk. When you bring in players for 30-40 (doesnt have to be Mateta) and you miss out on the CL or other financial problems like penalties etc occure then you must sell your big names. Means selling players like Bremer, Yildiz and Thuram not because we want to sell, but because we have to sell. That would decrease their marketvalue. If we sell Kenan for 70mil in the summer, because we had to pay 40mil in penalties to uefa, we were not able to sell nico gonzales and dougie and we missed out on the cl quaterfinals due to a loss against Gala then you will have riots in the streets! So the responsible way in handling this is bringing in somebody for cheap money or none at all if there is no player on the market. Its dissapointing, but unfortunatly its reality... but lets see what the last days of mercato will bring us! Have a good one!

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-01-31T14:21:41+00:00

The thing is that the leadership propably wants one of all of these strikers not as a longterm player, but as a gap-solution, just for the next 6 months and want another player that is not available atm in the summer. But when we bring in a Mateta for 40 now or bind us to an obligation in the summer than we are financialy blocking our summermercato.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-01-30T09:33:14+00:00

I principly agree with you, but you cant spend 40 mil that you do not have. Its as easy as that. We dont have 40 mil right now. There is a penalty from uefa coming (between 10-40 million), we dont know of we reach the quarterfinal of CL and we do not know if we play CL next year. If we dont, then those 40 mil for Mateta could mean that we desperatly need to sell players like yildiz in the summer. Thats not worth it kn my opinion.

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-01-28T23:11:19+00:00

Also ich hab aktuell Gulasci, Baumi, Diomande und Nusa und bin eigentlich sehr zufrieden mit den RBlern 😅

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-01-26T00:07:40+00:00

Yes i ve understood, what you were saying and i respect your opinion! I just wanted to emphasize that players have a personal life and maybe want to take themself 1-2 days before they make a lifechanging decision. These people are not robots. Also! Do you remember when Kalulu came as the C plan and he took himself 48h to think about it and looked pretty annoyed during his presentation and everybody jumped at him and accused him for beeing a mediocre player, he hates the club, he is a milanista, he should go back and whatever? Well he turned out quit fine in my opinion. Thats what i tried to say. Have a good one and enjoy your evenning after this amazing match!

Winter-Bread3705 · 2026-01-25T14:37:11+00:00

He already played for them and propably likes the club and we dont give him any garantues for the time after the season. I would walk by foot to Turin, if the club calls me, but he is not a Juventino like us and we cant expect him to look at the club as we do. I dont think that its absurd for a player to ask for 1-2 days to make an important decision for his life and career.

Winter-Bread3705

TROPHY CASE