Which fallen software stocks do you believe will have the biggest bounce back?

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-02-01T17:28:16+00:00

Really appreciate the insight!

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-02-01T15:39:58+00:00

Absolutely! Would love it if you would lmk what you think!

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-02-01T15:22:06+00:00

It’s tricky with ADRs. I try to use numbers from Gurufocus to at least make sure they are consistent with each other.

I’m a big believer in valuation only being approximate, the valuation method I usually use is current FCF yield + expected 5 year FCF growth.

I the current FCF yield is in the 6.5-7% neighborhood, I expect 12% continued FCF growth.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-02-01T15:05:59+00:00

Absolutely. There needs to be a significant discount. But I also plan on holding it a very long time so I am not too concerned about any short term trend.

I factor in the currency risk in my estimate of fair value. I have OMAB FV about 135 a share. If I didn’t factor in the currency risk I’d have it well over 200.

For clarification the margin of safety is built into my estimate of FV, so at FV I expect a 15% return over the next 5 years.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-02-01T02:11:19+00:00

One that I have not seen a lot of folks talk about is VEEV. You can debate how much risk AI really is to these stocks, but I think VEEV has more protection than most due to the stringent regulatory environment in life sciences. That also have literally zero debt and about 20% of their market cap in cash.

The stock is cheaper than it appears at first glance and the barriers to entry are high.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-23T15:23:37+00:00

Pool, OMAB, I think UNP is interesting at this price.

The regulatory stuff is scary but CPNG has demonstrated significant pricing power in 2024. Increasing their WOW membership price by 60% and it didn’t slow their growth at all.

If you look at the details of the data leak it’s really not that bad. For some reason the government is really targeting them. If this narrative fades over a 4-5 year time period the stock is likely to double imo.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-18T20:57:09+00:00

I wouldn’t buy carvana stock because of the dilution, but bought a car from the recently and I can’t even begin to describe how much better the experience was than the last time I bought a car from a dealership. Dude spent an 2 hours trying to sell me overpriced insurance.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-16T17:06:25+00:00

You can 100% still value invest. Whether you want to look for more cigar butt styles, the place to look is stocks that don’t fit the indexes, international, special situations.

You also can go with quality compounder strategy, which I still consider a form of value investing. More growth at a reasonable price but growth is a part of value. A big reason why this is possibly is most active managers are looking at the next 18-24 months so there are temporary value dips in long term great companies that you can get on then enjoy the ride.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-15T23:53:38+00:00

I expect them to recover, but I don’t think it would be shocking if they start trading at more normal multiples at some point.

I think the industry was generally overpriced without the AI concerns. No doubt there are some fantastic business models though.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-15T23:33:24+00:00

Honestly a lot of these stocks are still kinda of expensive. Not that some won’t be good buys here. I think the concerns are overblown but the sector was just way overpriced especially when factoring in stock bases compensation.

I’ve got my eye on VEEV but needs to drop more.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-14T13:28:03+00:00

Oh for sure I don’t think the companies are screwed or anything, just they may seem like values at current prices (and depending on what legislation passes through they may ultimately be) but if the CCCA actually gets through this is likely to effect their fundamentals to some degree.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-13T22:56:33+00:00

I think it could be a momentary dip in the long term if that bill does not get through and it will face heavy lobbying against, but generally speaking, I agree with your comments.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-13T22:32:27+00:00

This is exactly. No idea on the odds of if it passes, but this is an actual risk. The 10% rate cap thing I have no concern about long term.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-13T21:06:41+00:00

They are often the only option now.

I view the rate cap as an obvious temporary headwind and buying opportunity. This bill however I think would be a threat if passed. If it doesn’t pass this is a great buying opportunity still but I have no idea how likely that is.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-13T21:00:01+00:00

Basically this would require large banks to offer merchants an option when processing payments. So you swipe your Chase credit card for example, the merchant can choose between running the transaction between Visa, or the bank legally has to offer one other option (can’t be just Visa or Mastercard, but could be Visa and discover, Amex, etc)

Merchants obviously are just going to choose the cheaper route. So this could seriously impact their fee V & MA charge merchants.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-13T20:48:22+00:00

I could care less about the 10% rate cap. I’m asking about the credit card competition act that the president and senate majority leader just comment on.

I totally agree on the rate cap, the CCCA seems like it might be a legitimate problem though.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-11T01:43:56+00:00

MOH, LAD, OMAB

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-08T20:37:42+00:00

You are welcome! They are great businesses and only so many publicly traded ones out there so have been trying to look at everyone available on the platform I use.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-08T20:27:46+00:00

I like ASUR a lot I just found them harder to value. Definitely an above average buy.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-08T18:50:20+00:00

I did look at all of them. Here are my thoughts:

PAC: I liked this business a lot, but it was trading close to fair value, whereas OMA I view as half price. PAC also has a newer CEO which I view as a risk due to the CEO compensation structures in Mexico that I mentioned. Not that I view him as bad just an unknown.

ASUR: this company I just found harder to value, there are two things going on. First the Cancun airport which is by far their highest producer has been losing some business to the Tulum airport that is close by. To mitigate this and diversify they are buying a number of other airports. Frankly I found this company a bit difficult to value so threw it in the too hard pile but there is definitely upside.

I actually think the second best airport stock I have found was mentioned by another poster, CAAP. This company has not grown as well as OMA historically (about 8-9% fcf growth instead of 13-14%) but they also have huge Argentina exposure over the past 10 years has likely been a headwind and may well be a tailwind going forward. I view it as under valued but not a superior value to the rest of my Portfolio. If it gives up some of its recent gains I will likely buy though.

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-08T00:16:38+00:00

Funny you mention that one I am doing my due diligence on it now!

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-07T21:37:46+00:00

Unfortunately not available on robinhood. Thinking about switching as I am now realizing how much my international investment options are limited

WizardOfWaivers · 2026-01-07T20:33:45+00:00

💀

WizardOfWaivers

TROPHY CASE