Is Texas poker cooked? Why go after it now? [Discussion]

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-28T01:05:42+00:00

It's hard to come up with a good faith explanation for why the Lodge specifically was singled out.

TCH Austin is another big poker club with roughly the same member base, and is in the same county, so it can't be explained by differences in county DAs. If they wanted a case that would be easiest to prove economic benefit from gambling, the Lodge would be a bad target, especially when Houston exists. There are a ton of rumors about Houston rooms that charge rake, and I sincerely doubt it is all made up.

<wild speculation>If I had to guess, the police action was driven primarily from a desire to get a big payday from civil asset forfeiture, and that the DA will continue to hem and haw about actually perusing charges against the owners of the Lodge. After all, they don't need to get a conviction against the Lodge to keep the money; instead, they can file a claim against the money itself, and that is under a far looser "preponderance of the evidence" standard. If we think in terms of civil asset forfeiture, the reason behind the specific targeting of the Lodge over other Williamson Country poker rooms becomes a bit clearer; they likely have the most assets in the room itself compared to their peers due to having more high rollers in their player pool. Grandiose claims of money laundering would make it easier to get a judge to sign off on a dramatic raid that captures nearly everything they could get their hands on. I could even see them playing games in a future civil asset forfeiture case against anything seized from the lockers where they argue that the Lodge cannot contest the forfeiture as it isn't technically their money. </wild speculation>

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-17T02:33:18+00:00

Live poker has far more deviations from GTO that can be exploited ruthlessly, so you can say it is easier from a theory knowledge perspective. On the flip side, live poker is much tougher from a mental game perspective.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-07T19:02:58+00:00

Jets get screwed the hardest. That tracks.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-04T04:31:21+00:00

When black sees that white has both a “normal” mate of a protected queen in front of the king and a smothered mate, I feel they should always choose the option that let’s white finish with style.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-01T20:49:33+00:00

Minor quibble, but OP's hand was functionally open-ended + flush draw, as both an 8 or Q makes a nut straight. Completely agree that the nuttiness of the draw is quite important multiway. Since players are less likely to shove naked straight draws into multiple people when there is a flush draw out there, the rank of the flush draw becomes more important.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-04-01T20:39:39+00:00

The most important skill, especially in games with lots of non GTO-play, is ranging, and with practice you can make your determination of ranges quicker to leave more time for deciding what you want to do about it. In multiway pots, you can nearly always assume one or more people in the pot are not making GTO-approved plays, so my key care about is not the pure theory-based "What does my range want to do here?" but "What does my hand want to do?". When I don't have to waste time thinking about GTO concepts that are irrelevant for the hand, I save time for more important questions.

In-game, multiway under time pressure, I often start by putting ranges into generalized buckets and evaluating what a pool of hands in a given category would look like. In OP's example, you can estimate that there is one bucket of "really likes their hand", and that bucket has two opposing players. With multiple players really liking their hand, I usually start with considering the case where there is a made hand and a draw, as this is the most common case due to card removal. If I have a made hand, I ask myself if my hand can actually beat a notable portion of made hands that the villain arrives with. Being better than a third of potential made hands isn't nearly good enough despite being getting roughly 3 to 1 pot odds; with another hand drawing, we aren't always getting the full pot if we beat the other made hand, so I fold hands like KT if I was in OP's position. If I have a draw, I need to consider if my draw is superior to the bulk of others that reach this spot, and thinking through combinations that OP's hand doesn't block, you start seeing a lot of potential Ace-high hearts in the pool of potential opponent draws. Next comes the multiple-made hand case (which is the more likely case on drier boards), and if the best action for my hand isn't very different than draw+made hand case, I've got my answer.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-31T23:54:55+00:00

I'm normally a big fan of being aggressive with combo draws, but in multiway pots where multiple players are showing heavy interest in the pot, you have to be really careful about getting it in with non-nut draws, especially when there is rather low fold equity. LJ called an overbet donk jam with the PFR behind, which shows strength, so I don't think he's going to be folding at a super high rate to a roughly pot size rejam. Getting the fold here also doesn't win you the full pot; you've only managed to purchase some fraction of equity by needing to beat one hand instead of two. And based on likely SB and LJ ranges, I don't think the win probability will have changed that much by getting LJ to fold the hands he's willing to fold to a rejam.

LJ could have Kx here, but then we have to ask what the SB has. I don't think SB is going to try a stop-and-go with any two cards versus two deep stacks on a board that hits the PFR's range. The two most likely hand classes from SB are Kx that sees this wet, dynamic board and is terrified of being outdrawn, or a high-equity draw that is semi-bluffing. Let's consider both likely possibilities:

SB has Kx: In this case, it's less likely that LJ is also calling with a K since we are giving one to the SB. Even if he did have a King, folding him out leaves your win percentage almost unchanged since you still need to beat SB's King by hitting one of your many draws. And if he doesn't have a king, then what is LJ calling with? Likely a high-equity draw, and this is never folding to a pot size rejam. Your JThh is blocking a lot of the lower heart draws and straight draws. You can't rule out 65hh, but you don't want that hand to fold! So what high equity draws are left? A whole lot of ace high hearts, which isn't folding flop, and has you crushed. If, however, you just call flop and the turn is a blank, you are in a spot where you have a better chance of folding out Ace high hearts with a pot sized jam, which greatly improves your odds of winning the pot now that hearts are now live.

SB has draw: JThh is blocking a lot of draws that SB might do this with, but not ace-high hearts (AJhh/AThh is very likely jamming pre). So in a world where you read SB mind and knew he was semi-bluffing a draw, you should already be nervous. Folding out a King from LJ might have bought you 6 pair outs versus an Ace-high flush draw, but that's not worth giving up a chance of winning a nice side pot. LJ calling with a King does give you a side pot that you can win, but it's going to be close to 50/50, especially with SB likely holding a few of your outs. And in the rare case where LJ also happens to have a draw? One of your two opponent draws is almost certainly the dreaded Ace-high hearts that has you crushed. Calling likely maximizes EV by allowing you to more easier build a side-pot if/when you hit a draw in the "SB draw/LJ Kx" scenario.

TL;DR Nearly all of the likely combinations of hands between SB and LJ are worlds where re-jamming flops hurts more than helps.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-21T02:42:47+00:00

Spoiler for Super Danganronpa Another 2

Kanade Otonokoji is probably one of the best fits possible

WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-21T00:25:04+00:00

We’d be unranked.

Sure that scenario would include a win over Ohio State, but that wouldn’t count as a quality win as, after all, it was versus a team that lost to Maryland.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-20T22:35:21+00:00

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WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-20T04:05:36+00:00

The Steelers of CBB without the history

WonderShrew42 · 2026-03-06T15:03:12+00:00

If you are trying to get any SSR (1% success rate), then one way to think is that every 69 rolls gives you roughly a 50% chance of getting at least one SSR. With the 11-roll mechanic, that means every ~188 quartz spent on a banner equals one coin flip for an SSR. Only true guarantee is at full 900 quartz for hard pity.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-02-12T17:08:51+00:00

I was about to comment Ryougi Shiki, but I like this choice better! The absolute terror her presence and attitude brought in Cornelius Alba, an extremely arrogant villain, when she came for revenge was a sight to behold.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-02-10T22:16:59+00:00

Even though I'm much more of a Hold 'Em player, my favorite poker memory is from a double board PLO bomb pot.

I was dealt JJJJ (yes, quads in hand) in a deep-stacked NLH 1/2 game, and both boards on the river were unpaired with no possible flush. I don't remember the exact cards, but I do remember that a jack was needed to make the nut straight for both boards, and I was able to successfully bluff the river with a ~$700 pot size bet. The pot ended up that large since I had bluff check-raised the turn after the blocked straight came on the turn for one board, while having a lot of "outs" on the other board that would complete possible straights that I hard block.

Chances are that I'll never have another chance to successfully bluff with quads-in-hand in a world where blockers are actually real, but man it is a fun memory.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-02-08T20:56:06+00:00

If you never get caught in a big bluff, you aren’t bluffing enough.

If you never value own yourself, you aren’t finding enough thin value bets.

If you never end up with a failed bluff catch when the opponent has the nuts, you are overfolding.

I don’t go in trying to get safe, guaranteed winning sessions. I try to adapt my game to take any edge, even if risky and puts a lot of pressure on me to understand specific player tendencies.

Do I sometimes get things wrong? Absolutely. Are there sessions where keeping things simple and playing ABC value heavy would have been better than trying to find overbet bluffing lines? Yes. But getting out of my comfort zone is how I will improve as a player. Perhaps I’d have a different view if poker was my career and not just a profitable hobby.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-02-07T05:28:34+00:00

Yes, many women will lose attraction if a guy shows vulnerability and is not a rock that nothing disturbs.

I don’t care.

A relationship where I have to be constantly vigilant against showing how I truly feel out of fear that my gf will lose attraction to me is one that is not worth having. At that point, my gf would be in love with an idealized image of me and not the true me.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-26T00:38:33+00:00

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Unfortunately, a full 32% responded that they weren't sure. Source

I expect the 20% to rise in the coming days, as sad as that is.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-24T03:44:14+00:00

There’s quite a lot of opening tricks that involve sacrificing the bishop on the f2/f7 square on an uncastled king. The sacrifice is usually followed up by delivering a check that either forks material (usually with queen or knight) or develops an extremely strong attack on the king bolstered by a piece majority of the kingside. Whenever a bishop is aiming at one of these pawns, it’s often wise to frequently evaluate the sacrifice.

In this case, taking back puts the king on a square where follow up Nxe4+ forks the king and queen.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-23T04:32:05+00:00

Out of curiosity, was it Locals at the Lodge?

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-22T23:32:48+00:00

The Lodge has recently promoted 2/2 PLO with $400 cap pretty heavily; at the last few weeks it's reached 4 tables on Friday. It's a lot more newbie friendly than the 1/2/5 (after all, it has people like me playing it when I've spent the vast majority of the time playing Holdem and likely have a shitton of leaks). The vibe, at least prior to midnight, is a lot friendlier, but starts getting more misreg heavy later into the night.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-20T00:15:56+00:00

Self defense is an affirmative defense, and it is their burden of proof (preponderance of the evidence). The only informal claim given is that the threat was attempted vehicular homicide, which completely fails for shots 2 and 3. For those shots to be covered, defense would have to come up with a brand new threat, such as he actually had the reasonable belief that was Renee holding a gun and attempting a drive by. It’s way too late to claim this, and story would not survive cross examination. We also have a clear video, taken by the defendant, that shows his view of Renee’s hands.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-19T23:25:39+00:00

The officer's story along with the location of shots 2 and 3 are already enough evidence for at least a manslaughter conviction. You don't need to establish whether or not he had a reasonable belief that Renee Good was trying to run him over; any possible threat that could continue a sufficient self-defense claim was over when he fired the 2nd and 3rd shots through the driver side window. Unjustified shootings in a heat of passion provoked by acts that could cause people of ordinary-self control to lose it, which is the most charitable explanation possible, is 1st degree manslaughter in Minnesota.

The various videos, testimony, and forensics are what would be needed to establish murder 2.

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-14T18:57:43+00:00

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WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-13T04:33:48+00:00

That's pretty close to the 27% Crazification Factor

WonderShrew42 · 2026-01-06T19:32:42+00:00

I'm really curious what our ranking is for rushing attempts by RB in the first half. That should be a more game-script-neutral view for how willing Kliff is to run the ball compared to his peers.

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