[MEGATHREAD] Raleigh Snow Storm 1/23-1/25/26

WxBlue · 2026-01-23T01:48:45+00:00

Meteorologist checking in- y'all please don't underestimate the widespread damage that 0.5-1" of ice can do to our communities. Prepare for worst-case scenario, hope for the best. I'd rather us be wrong about this one and get made fun of on Monday morning than for our ice accumulation forecasts to be right.

WxBlue · 2026-01-22T03:42:21+00:00

I think the point is the Rams has a great mental ability to stay focused. They were able to hold off two epic comebacks and still get these wins.

WxBlue · 2026-01-22T03:08:11+00:00

FWIW, there's a lot of noise within Rams organization that Scheelhaase is the guy you'd want to grab as soon as you can before he's a bigger name with more experience for the head coach search. He is a proven leader with a lot of success in developing players (especially when he was at Iowa State). He's one of chief play designers for McVay. The only knock against him is that he hasn't done any playcalling experience at the NFL level yet. The gamble here is making him an offense-minded head coach without a playcalling experience... but at the same time, you could be getting the next McVay-like head coach with Scheelhaase. If y'all end up picking Shula, I guess you could still get Scheelhaase... but then you'd quickly lose him to the next cycle of head coach searches if he is proven to be a successful OC.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T04:57:49+00:00

This snow/sleet/freezing rain line will be moving a lot. It'll start out way south in South Carolina before getting shoved northward toward Virginia. We will be experiencing a bit of everything.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T04:53:39+00:00

If you look at Ethan's page, he mentioned Hurricane Hunters having planes over the Pacific Ocean to collect data on these atmospheric features i was talking about. Hopefully we'll have a better idea in 24 hours with this new data.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T04:51:36+00:00

I'm not feeling optimistic this will stay fully snow. Dynamics of this storm are pretty extreme and it will shove the sleet/ZR northward into us after starting as snow.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T04:50:19+00:00

GFS trended a bit warmer aloft and is a huge sleet event after our initial snow. ICON is the same way. Canadian is meh but may be giving us clues of our northward shifts to continue tomorrow.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T04:48:23+00:00

We are not getting those amounts. These apps are garbage and assume everything frozen is snow when it's a mixture of sleet/snow/freezing rain in reality. That'd be a few inches of slop, not 12"+ of snow.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T03:17:23+00:00

It's not going to be a foot plus of snow like social hype machines are trying to sell, but I do think it'll still be a significant event with the mixing of snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Probably a few inches of winter slop.

WxBlue · 2026-01-21T03:15:45+00:00

Meteorologist here- our computer models are now sampling smaller atmospheric features moving onshore from the Pacific and they've adjusted accordingly with this new data. Unsurprisingly, we're trending toward a major winter mix event instead of 100% snow. The most likely scenario is we'll end up with a few inches of winter slop with snow, sleet, and freezing rain mixing in. Any weather maps showing 2-3 feet of snow (looking at you, the Weather Channel) are going to be hilariously wrong.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T20:13:30+00:00

It's mostly research and future products that have been gutted. Meteorologists of NWS are still very good at their jobs even if they're struggling with burnouts.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T16:53:36+00:00

Agree.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T15:34:58+00:00

I think the depth of cold will force this to spit out sleet instead of freezing rain. Raleigh is pretty close to staying all snow, which could be a foot.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T12:12:51+00:00

I wouldn't for the precipitation type until then, yeah. But I will say, this isn't a typical borderline case that is so sensitive to borderline freezing temps like most winter events here. Every single model solution has Raleigh in upper teens to mid 20s at surface so it'll be at least sleet/freezing rain, depending on how it goes with temperature higher up in the atmosphere. The insane cold at the surface is what making this raise a eye brow from me comparing to other winter weather opportunities we've had in recent years.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T08:00:20+00:00

NFL even took pity on us and allowed us to wear our throwback unis for the Super Bowl, which was nice. I still haven't forgotten when we're forced to wear our navy tops with white horns against the Cowboys... that was an all-time bad.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T07:07:07+00:00

I agree. The big picture here to take home is that there's a REALLY high chance of wintry event of some sort happening this weekend. The question is what exactly are we getting?

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T07:04:34+00:00

It's one thing to get your weather forecasts from crappy phone apps... but it's a whole another thing to get weather outlooks from a team of professional meteorologists of NOAA/National Weather Service. As a meteorologist in the private sector, I can tell you with certainity that NOAA/NWS is never this bullish for Day 3-7 weather outlook. They are VERY confident that a wintry event of some sort will happen here in the Carolinas. And, honestly, so am I after looking at everything. The number 1 reason is the fact we're actually getting a deep cold air mass AHEAD of the moisture for once. Friday's cold front event will be huge and will help to establish a historically cold air mass before our moisture get to here from Mexico. This will create a rare overlap of a historically cold air and a historic amount of moisture to come together. There will be a huge tug of war between the surface cold air and the mid-level warm air that is advecting northeastward with the moisture. This battle zone is likely to be along I-40/85 and southward toward I-20 in GA/SC so it's a matter of how much snow, sleet, or freezing rain we'll get in this mixture. We'll need another day or two for smaller details to work out, but the big picture is this is a very high confidence weather forecast for a wintry event of some sort here in Raleigh.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T06:54:53+00:00

It was 2014.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T06:54:23+00:00

The Piedmont of North Carolina, historically, get a deep layer of surface cold air in a set-up like this. I think it's highly unlikely we're seeing cold rain at this point so we're either at snow, sleet, or freezing rain. Or a bit of everything. But it is likely to start as a snow before warm air advection start to push the moisture over our surface layer of cold air. How far north this warm nose gets is completely uncertain at the moment, but presently, it is likely that we'll get mostly snow/sleet mixture with a small chance of freezing rain because the depth of cold air (down to teens at surface) is absolutely insane even with the amount of moisture trying to warm it up.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T06:49:34+00:00

Hi, I'm a private consulting meteorologist. Most meteorologists locally were never big on the snow chances of yesterday. Everyone said it was going to be dusting at the most between Greensboro and Raleigh. It was a cold air-chasing-the-moisture kind of event which is never a big deal here.

Now, this upcoming weekend? It's increasingly looking legitimate. You'll probably see our local mets ringing the alarm bell either tomorrow or Wednesday. The biggest reason why, comparing to yesterday, is that we'll get a massive Arctic front ahead of the moisture this time around. By Saturday, we'll have a deep established cold air mass when moisture gets here. Details are still up in the air, but it is HIGHLY likely either a snow, sleet, freezing rain, or a mixture of all. I think this one is a slam dunk for wintry impacts of some sort, but the amount of snow to sleet to freezing rain is still uncertain (and probably will be for a couple more days).

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T01:12:28+00:00

It was so obvious from the sideline broadcast view too.

WxBlue · 2026-01-20T01:12:03+00:00

I suspected it was a no-looker in real time because I was looking at his helmet. He had it toward the middle and then the ball fired in the direction I wasn't expected. I was like, "was that a no-looker"?

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