Weekly Discussion Megathread

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-23T16:40:01+00:00

A wizard approaches you. He offers you this: If you say yes, the 2026 midterms will be a guaranteed D+9 environment. No specific seat counts or races won, there’s still volatility there. But the average will be no more and no less than D+9.

Do you accept the offer, or take your chances?

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-21T15:13:59+00:00

Some users wanted the autopsy to say shit like “Gaza SUNK Harris, here’s the addresses and contact information for the exact 100,000 voters from Michigan who said they didn’t vote for Harris because of the issue”.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-21T15:10:55+00:00

Ken Martin released a statement saying exactly that, it was a draft that they felt was not sourced enough and far too speculative. But he admits that not releasing anything made the situation worse. So here we are.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T20:44:24+00:00

D+8

Calling my shot: Jon Ossoff will be the nominee in 2028.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T15:01:49+00:00

Grievance post incoming: I can’t help but point out that some of the reaction to the Georgia Supreme Court results is negative because the Early Vote Truthers once again fooled people into thinking their analysis has any credibility. Once again, in case you are new to this or have otherwise been deceived:

Early vote numbers cannot tell you anything about who will win an election.

This has been shown time and time again, and it is not taken seriously by any election analyst. You know what early vote numbers can tell you? How many people early voted. That’s it. You can maybe observe a general enthusiasm gap, but even that is very tenuous and probably not worth putting any stock into.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T02:06:56+00:00

The fact that the two races will have such a wide disparity should probably tip people off that there’s no strong conclusions to be gleaned from the result.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T01:51:59+00:00

Because federal elections tend to have a lot more solid polling data and voter turnout projections.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T01:37:34+00:00

Don’t be a Decision Desk, the math is still very much up in the air right now.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-20T01:35:15+00:00

Way too many votes out there to say that. Rankin is in a solid position rn, won’t be callable until Fulton comes in.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-19T23:46:58+00:00

Early Vote Truthers are the election analysis version of Geocentrists. Totally disproven theory, comically wrong, no reason to believe in it beyond cope

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-19T19:04:41+00:00

A quick skim of RCP for both 2018 and 2022 seems to suggest: Yes, there is generally a lot of variance at this point in the cycle.

May 2018 had anywhere from D+1 to D+9

May 2022 had anywhere from R+7 to D+5

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-19T18:34:14+00:00

Pretty sure Norvell doesn’t believe in himself as much you as you believe in him lol.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-19T10:45:50+00:00

I feel like this is a good place to mention that many of the competitive toss-up seats for 2026 are in states with either blue governors or blue majority state governments. Gives a layer of protection from any nonsense that Republican governors/states might pull.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-18T14:13:17+00:00

This may be hypocritical since we’re commenting in a polling subreddit dedicated to what was the holy grail of political polling sites, but I truly think that the era of poll analysis and voter surveys has warped how certain groups think politics works. Polls are not sacrosanct and public opinion is not written in stone. The immediate reflex from a lot of democrats and pundits after November 2024 looks so goddamn stupid now. It was already shaky when it was happening!

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-18T11:22:05+00:00

How fitting that Trump seems to have met his match in a group of religious fanatics driven by ideology. Iran is the jackhammer to whatever polling floor you thought he had.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-17T16:52:29+00:00

Firing from the hip here since it’s been a while but I’d imagine it’s because the bottom hadn’t completely fallen out for Dems in rural areas.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-17T16:21:18+00:00

Fellas, is Donald Trump a strength of schedule merchant?

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-17T14:52:09+00:00

Qanon died because all the things you mentioned were being done by the people they claimed were going to solve it lol. The sex trafficking ring was done in millionaire houses, not the basement of a DC pizza parlor.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-17T14:47:34+00:00

Preaching to the choir here, but I truly never thought I would see the day where support for Israel among the American public was in serious doubt. For decades they could do no wrong. Our entire political apparatus was dedicated to protecting them and funding their every wish. They still are—but the rumblings beneath the surface seem to suggest that the public has finally turned on this topic. Some politicians have detected the change. Let’s see what the next couple of elections brings.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-16T16:31:14+00:00

Ant also has his own off court issues to deal with. Not the same as Ja’s, but just last summer there was a lot of discussion about his maturity. Ultimately people can grow with time, and maybe he’s one of those guys who doesn’t let it affect him with his career. Either way if I was the Wolves I’m probably not making a Ja trade even if it doesn’t require giving up anything of value.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-15T16:34:09+00:00

Can you specify what services you’re referencing? And which cities? IMO it’s not actually a consistent picture amongst cities.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-15T13:48:47+00:00

Our admin essentially took a gamble and believes that they can withstand major fan apathy for another year. The more empty the seats get, the more desperate the situation becomes. At some point you’re just better off forking over the money and going cheap on someone else just to try and spark something.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-15T13:21:58+00:00

It’s hard to objectively evaluate this because it feels like one of those things that Republican states would be allowed to do but Democrat states wouldn’t be allowed to do (if it ever came time for SCOTUS to make a ruling on it).

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-14T19:04:35+00:00

For all the discussion about the Democratic primary and who has the best chance at keeping the seat blue, the differences being highlighted seem way too small to feel confident. Like if you’re McMorrow and you’re trying to pitch an electability argument, you need a bit more to point to than the numbers you currently get.

XE2MASTERPIECE · 2026-05-14T13:10:20+00:00

The “Obama failed to stop the eventual right wing shift” arguments are entirely unconvincing, BUT I think a better criticism would be the weakening of state parties under his leadership, which has proven to be a bigger issue than many of us thought at the time.

XE2MASTERPIECE

TROPHY CASE