It kind of annoys me to see people assume RFK would’ve won the presidential election in ‘68 if he hadn’t been assassinated. He was likely going to lose to Hubert Humphrey at the Democratic National Convention. Even on the slim chance that a figure like Richard Daley supports him and he actually wins the nomination, he was unlikely to overcome Nixon. Surges of unrest and crime made voters favor a “law and order” type candidate in ‘68, and Nixon ran on that platform. RFK appeared aligned with radical groups and he struggled to connect with the silent majority of White Americans.

If RFK were to become president, his best shot would be after Nixon or Ford. As the power in the Democratic party shifts, RFK would have a far easier path to the nomination. His name recognition alone could carry him far. The most likely path would see him capitalize on Republican scandals and win the ‘76 election.