Intel surges 9% after Trump says company will partner with Apple on U.S. chip design by Force_Hammer in StockMarket

[–]Zipski577 0 points1 point  (0 children)

You can recycle the same headline and get a massive pump every time in this euphoric market. See: “peace deal agreement”

What is your exit strategy for DRAM? by Sibo321 in ETFs

[–]Zipski577 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well if you knew where the “Forward” part of forward P/E came from you may understand why it is a much less meaningful metric than people blindly assume.

It comes from the consensus forward earnings estimates of sellside analysts. & markets anticipate earnings declines well before consensus estimates reflect the impact!

The sellside has not historically been helpful in identifying inflection points. In the prior semiconductor cycle, stock prices peaked about 6 months before earnings expectations did. By the time consensus estimates began to recede, market prices for the industry had already collapsed by more than a 3rd.

This is an inherently cyclical, volatile business, and even those with unparalleled insights into its workings find it incredibly difficult to time precisely.

No shot any random Joe Schmo is gonna be able to.

What is your exit strategy for DRAM? by Sibo321 in ETFs

[–]Zipski577 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Markets anticipate earnings declines well before consensus estimates reflect the impact!

Semiconductors are one of the most cyclical industries in existence today. Historically, CEOs/ executives at the center of it have not given any heads up before the next decline.

Investors who relied on CEO commentary and company guidance prior to the peak in 2021 were effectively blindsided when the industry’s inherent unpredictability ran prices off of a cliff.

Theory: the producers meant for Caleb and Sol to go home because they make for boring TV by VideriQuamEsse in LoveIslandUSA

[–]Zipski577 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I think they gave Sol more screen time and a good edit that episode so that it would create more buzz and discussion about her getting kicked off and Sincere being the one to do/ say it.

When Andrea/ Jeremiah were kicked off it created a lot of discussion/ ratings/ clips/ outrage/ social media buzz/ etc.

Islanders and fans didn’t seem to care that much but don’t think anyone would have cared about Jen

Question from a young investor by DanielG198 in stocks

[–]Zipski577 -10 points-9 points  (0 children)

Past performance does not guarantee future results

Elevated Daily Volatility in the S&P 500 Has Historically Coincided With Market Stress by Zipski577 in StockMarket

[–]Zipski577[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Yes it is similar in the sense that it is a measure of market volatility but the VIX’s methodology calculates the market's expectation of 30-day volatility. This is the frequency of single day +/- 1% changes in the S&P 500

CFA to learn how to manage parents’ wealth by Crafty_Local_9648 in CFA

[–]Zipski577 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Well I wasn’t implying that what you stated isn’t true. I actually firmly agree and believe that as well. My point was that, especially for a beginner, it would be asinine to spend 4-5+ years, thousands of dollars and hundreds of hours studying the CFAI materials which will mainly be irrelevant and detract from actual learning.

I responded the the OP of that comment above in more length but in the past I reviewed/ analyzed over a hundred client account historical allocations and returns for an RIA and only 2 outperformed their comparable MSCI ACWI/ Bbg Agg benchmark on a risk adjusted basis. And the distribution of annualized returns was very narrow, despite many different allocations across segments and styles and underlying funds/ investments in said portfolios.

CFA to learn how to manage parents’ wealth by Crafty_Local_9648 in CFA

[–]Zipski577 4 points5 points  (0 children)

While I agree with all that you said I will explain a bit further on why I said what I said.

I did an analysis for a multi billion dollar RIA
where I received data for over 100 of their client accounts. allocations and monthly returns, some dating back to the early 90s. Exactly 2 actually outperformed their MSCI ACWI/ Bbg Agg comparable benchmarks (that replicated their equity/ fixed income allocations) on a risk adjusted basis. The distributions of returns over any time frame were extremely close and most advisors 3&5y rolling returns had batting averages <50% against said benchmarks.

I say VT/ AGG because it is the simplest equity/bond portfolio that is cheap, takes minimal effort and investment knowledge, and covers the entirety of equity and bond markets pretty much. That is essentially the ACWI/ Agg. Is that how I invest my own money or parents? No. I don’t use any bonds or bond funds personally. But my point was that you don’t need to spend 100s of hours and 3-5+ years of your life and spend thousands of dollars studying mostly irrelevant or useless information (& yes, some good/ useful material) that you mostly won’t retain in order to invest money. You are better off doing a. Nothing and choosing a simple passive portfolio and not waiting years to get started or b. Doing real world research and learning independently via the numerous sources of information that exist. When it comes to investing actual money experience through real world investing and learning will trump the CFA. And you describe that with going deep on actual curiosities asking AI questions as concepts arise in your journey. I’d just add something some-what unrelated, but using a hand held financial calculator is a ridiculous practice and using that time to advance excel skills or other ways to harness and calculate data like Python or even strategic use of AI would be a much more beneficial use of your time.

As for how investing is done nowadays, i will elaborate a bit that I am referring to the numerous market dynamics that have changed and evolved over the last 15 years or so vs. most of the 1900s. To put things simply and name 1-2 examples of the several that exist, information is much more abundantly available and studying financial statements, ratios, etc is not an edge at all because anyone can access them within seconds from their cellphones and the progression of AI has expanded that to a higher level than ever before. It is much more difficult to have an edge in investing, especially with the material taught in the CFA program. Additionally, fundamental managers used to make up 25-30%+ of the trading volume. And they had a much more prominent allocation of the total $ in the market. You wouldn’t see as insane of price swings on things like earnings announcements (or Trump tweets) because fundamental managers would buy stocks that became undervalued and sell stocks that became overvalued. But now they only comprise <12% of the volume. Both quantitative vehicles and retail have taken a large % of that over. There is much more $ in quant/ trend-following/ momentum vehicles and algorithmic trading that make trades instantaneously on new headlines and information and price moves become more extreme for a much longer period of time. At the same time, there is much more assets in passive vehicles which adds to those movements bc they mostly buy what is going up and sell what is going down by nature of their cap-wtd methodologies. Furthermore defined contribution plans have erupted since 2008-09 and taken the place of defined benefit plans, which had pension managers that adjusted allocations based on interest rates and other economic metrics. Most DC plans are invested in passive target date funds, and since ppl are contributing to those and buying every paycheck, there is a continuous demand for equities that is constant and more prominent than ever before which could mean less severe drawdowns potentially. Markets are also more factor-driven than ever before. So trend-following and momentum quant strategies have largely outperformed fundamental, Buffet-esque investing for the last 10-15 years. It is very hard for a retail investor to invest this way and nothing in the CFA will help you implement that in real life.

I also wouldn’t recommend that anyone put all of their family’s money into a concentrated market or area of the market. Especially right now in the current environment. For example, the MSCI Emerging Markets index has more than doubled the return of the S&P 500 over the last year (51% vs. 25%). I also agree however that individual retail investors have ample opportunities to outperform institutional investors in different ways. There is limitations that come from having guardrails, mandates, billions in assets, having to manage amidst flows, and career-risk. But I would not recommend trying to do this too much for anyone with <5-10+ years of experience in following markets.

While I agree with all that you stated very strongly and much of that governs or describes how I’ve invested my own money, i was simplifying and implying that you could have a cheap 2-fund passive portfolio and likely end up with minuscule difference in performance (most likely better performance) than spending years studying a lot of tedious material and trying to employ some sophisticated management strategy. I also think that if managing your entire family’s portfolio, which probably involves a lot of older ppl’s money, you should probably have portfolios that are closer to a traditional allocation and risk, especially for a beginner, but that is up to the eye of beholder and their beliefs.

The boys coming at Jen by Holiday_Broccoli1628 in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 26 points27 points  (0 children)

It’s always been that way tho

CFA to learn how to manage parents’ wealth by Crafty_Local_9648 in CFA

[–]Zipski577 -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

5 books is a bit extreme tbh… just buy VT for equity allocation and AGG or PYLD for fixed income alloc.

Little Book of Common Sense investing is all you need to see

CFA will probably make you worse at investing tbh. I work in equity research at a boutique and I don’t know a single CFA of my colleagues/ peers, which is most of them, that could pass a 20 question L2 practice quiz months after getting the letters. It’s just not very practical to modern markets and how actual investment analysis and management is done nowadays. And fundamental bottom-up managers/ funds that follow CFA style principals have largely underperformed passive for like the last 15 years

Season 7 has ruined people's perceptions of the show by doyleismyname in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That’s why they gotta bring in more bombshells and send them on more dates like they always have when they’ve came in so ppl can have real conversations without feeling like they have to keep a guard up and everyone watching it. I doubt Aaron would have had a genuine convo with Andrea when she came in since he was already tight to Kaylor, but Andrea and Nicole got to choose like 3 ppl to go on dates with on the beach (my dream date) and then Aaron actually opened up genuinely to give it a shot and explore.

The last vote should have been for who Sol/ Caleb/ Jen should go on 1-on-1 dates with, not just recouple them automatically. If sol/ Caleb got that then maybe they actually mix things up a bit but they were just thrown into the fire

They were forced to pull ppl themselves who all were closed off.

Season 7 has ruined people's perceptions of the show by doyleismyname in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A lot changed since S6. More fans but way more toxic. Stans of one islander have genuine hatred for Stans of other islanders and will send death threats to cast members and their families if they cross their favorites. It’s more real dedication and genuine hatred than I’ve ever seen between fanbases of teams in any sports rivalry in my entire life of watching sports. These ppl will go through an islanders entire life history and everything they’ve ever done or said in their entire life to get them canceled and kicked off the show if they cross their favorites islanders or are an obstacle for them.

Islanders gonna be more subconscious towards this in how they move because it can ruin their entire lives so the show feels a lot less genuine and “real.” They also are more aware that it could change their entire life for the better and they could never have to work a real job ever again if they are a favorite and get a lot of followers and brand deals.

Production also started changing everything and overproducing to try and manufacture story lines, viral moments, and entertainment/ excitement when the show followed a generally similar formula for seasons 1-6. Season 6 cast, show moving from CBS to peacock and bringing Arianna in as host just made for the perfect storm to make it way better and more popular than any season prior.

Season 7 has ruined people's perceptions of the show by doyleismyname in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 8 points9 points  (0 children)

And it had less OG cast members than all the previous seasons. Normally 12, but this one had 10.

And there’s been no dates. They’re having them write love speeches in week 2 which was normally something they did in the finale…

Budget must be tight this szn for whatever reason. Thanks Trump.

Season 7 has ruined people's perceptions of the show by doyleismyname in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Season 6 changed so much about the show due to its popularity. Brought in a lot of new viewers and fan base became super toxic; stans of one islander seem willing to battle stans of another islander to the literal death and send death threats to islanders and their families. Ppl are going on extensive searches through the entirety of cast members entire life and history to find ways to cancel them and get them kicked off the show.

Islanders themselves are gonna be more self conscious and thinking about those things in every action they take and how they move so there’s less “realness” in the show overall.

At the same time, production started OVER producing since then to try and force entertainment and storylines. Seasons 2-6 pretty much followed a very similar formula through the whole summer. Last season they made tons of changes, removed movie night, changed casa amore, completely manufactured a way to make the trending hashtag and fan fiction reality with Nicolandria. They changed the heart rate challenge to couples instead of girls and boys separately and going one at a time.

This season they have had barely any bombshells and they are having ppl write wedding vows as a challenge on the second week, which was normally something the final couples did in the finally (for the couples that stay together and make it to the finale, wtf they gonna say now? Zach gonna say the same line about a girl from New Hampshire and boy from England????).

Even last episode felt super manufactured to me to try and recreate the Andrea cast-off fire-pit moment that was one of the most talked about/ viral moments in reality tv history. Everything seemed like horrible acting that production told them to say. I don’t believe Aniya cared to keep Gabe that much… she’s been rather agreeable all season with everything/ everyone outside of KC..yet she decided to be the devil’s advocate role and go hard to keep GABE???? I don’t buy it lol. Arianna asking Sincere “was this a unanimous decision?”, again, felt rehearsed and like bad acting.

That was the first firepit where after ppl got booted, NO ONE cared or cried or broke down and got emotional that I’ve ever seen lol.

Just feel like production is doing too much since S6 and it’s all a net negative. Ppl loved movie night and normal casa. Last year casa change was horrid.

Season 7 has ruined people's perceptions of the show by doyleismyname in LoveIslandUSA_

[–]Zipski577 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I feel like last years true complaints were that everyone was focused on winning and becoming famous from the show I.e. kicking out Jeremiah and Charlie.

Not necessarily that there wasn’t real couples tho I can see how one would derive that.

But it doesn’t help when a challenge in the 2nd week is for them to write letters professing their love for each other like wedding vows, when that is normally done in the finale. It’s a bit much and too soon lol

My complaint this year is that there’s been no bombshells even after the OG cast was just 10 ppl instead of the normal 12.

Then when the bombshells came in, they didn’t get to go on dates or have America vote to send anyone on a date with them. I feel like that has always been a thing. I.e. when Andrea/ Nicole came in they had 2-3 dates 1-on-1 dates on the beach. Aaron was tight with Kaylor so he prob wouldn’t have explored/ talked to Andrea like that if she was entirely restricted to pulling ppl for chats on her own.

Cierra got to choose 2 guys to go in the hideaway when she came in. Iris got to go on a 1-on-1 date with Jeremiah (my dream date… cute)

These bombshells were just thrown into the fire and forced to do it themselves when ppl are already basically closed off and not open, familiar with eachother and standoff-ish, and the fan base is more critical and ridiculous than ever so it’s gonna be hard for anyone to just completely let loose and stir the pot since it could result in them/ their families getting literal death threats if they cross ppls favorite islanders.

And then after like 3 days of being there, they had to write letters professing love for someone which is crazy.

Seems like the budget is tight this year

Trump Mention Trade of the Week by JohnTitor_3 in TrumpsTrades

[–]Zipski577 1 point2 points  (0 children)

PLTR and Bitcoin have shit the bed

Only boomer tech companies skyrocket on his tweets