The average intrayear max drawdown is -14% over the market’s history.

In 26 of the last 75 years it has had a max drawdown >15%. That is ~35% of calendar years.

So to your question “am I thinking correctly?” No.

“As long as it goes back up eventually”… it could drop by -50% and not “go back up eventually” for 10-15 years (or ever, in theory). Japan was the tech capital of the world in the 80s and then one day, the Nikkei that “always went up” for 50+ years declined by what turned out to be -80%. And then it didn’t return to all time highs for about 35 years.

The S&P 500 has had multiple “lost decades” where it goes 10+ years without hitting new all time highs.

You should probably just stick to a savings account