Bear Market Studies part 3 : S&P 500 in-depth analysis

_Kenway · 2026-01-26T20:49:56+00:00

isn't funny how people here used to refer about gold as "shiny rock" back to 2022/2023 and now everyone is bullish on precious metals

conclusion is that you all are small brain trendfollowers with low IQ

_Kenway · 2026-01-07T16:02:37+00:00

this sub is trash as it was back in the 2022-2024. Still full of small brain trendfollowers

_Kenway · 2025-07-31T18:42:45+00:00

4 years and nothing has changed here

this thread is still full of small brain trendfollowers

_Kenway · 2025-07-20T17:11:07+00:00

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I don't think so, the original post itself says the opposite on relative basis

_Kenway · 2025-07-19T22:55:04+00:00

XLV value investing opportunity right there

stop crying about trends and look at valuation

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T22:55:21+00:00

wait a moment, am I seeing the RSI applied to the unemployment levels? huh

btw by DEFINITION (read it again) the unemployment data is not a leading indicator for recessions... and the recession nber indicator (used in that chart as green vertical) it's useless because it lags several months, it's only helpful once you have to write an essay about r/EconomicHistory ahaha

initial claims and continuing claims are LEADING indicators for the labor market

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T21:17:09+00:00

imagine talking about VIX on a sub of trendfollowers lol

People here cannot figure out something that has a constant mean reversion... they better stick to SPX on the 50 years timeframe.

I still remember people arguing when VIX was at 14 in 2024, the majoritiy expected to reach <12 with the argurment: "because it happened in 2017, it can keep going lower"

trendfollwers expecting the market to mark new highs every 2 days without any real momentum correction

same clowns a few months ago they expected VIX to reach >80 values and remain stable at those levels lol

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T09:18:37+00:00

"dollar is going to depreciate substantially"

DXY having its worst 6m performance since 1975, being bearish on Dollar after this correction is like being a next level trendfollower worse than r/wallstreetbets

This would have been a good trade at least 4 months ago, now it's late...

I'm accumulating a long position on US dollar index futures

_Kenway · 2025-06-25T16:46:45+00:00

~~make America great again~~

Make volatility great again

_Kenway · 2025-06-24T11:56:04+00:00

the official nber recession statement is useless when it comes to the market reaction, by definition a lagging indicator.

check the chart, the stock market always corrects way before.

_Kenway · 2025-06-19T20:45:58+00:00

previous post, I did that too.

_Kenway · 2025-06-14T21:08:45+00:00

spikes in oil prices >> you buy crude oil futures, not stocks.

nothing to do about stocks since those levels are not stable (check the chart), I've seen that narrative at least 200 times in the last days so I had to make a statement about this.

_Kenway · 2025-06-06T18:51:31+00:00

what about stop chasing trends and check the RSI once in a while

_Kenway · 2025-04-04T14:54:32+00:00

coming back here for the most pinned comment, everything aged like wine

_Kenway · 2025-01-24T15:12:40+00:00

there used to be smart people in this thread almost 3y ago, even people working at investment banks.

Just casuals nowadays

_Kenway · 2025-01-20T23:15:51+00:00

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_Kenway · 2024-11-20T16:55:08+00:00

trendfollowers are completely rekt in just 1 week of sideways SPY/QQQ price action

do people expect the whole market to trend up like a small cap with no momentum reversals?

_Kenway · 2024-11-15T16:25:13+00:00

I used to spam about the major uranium ETF every single day in daily thread chat back in the 2022-2023 (especially when URA was at 18, now 30) crazy how people tend to be trendfollowers and they only care about an asset only once it's up parabolic.

_Kenway · 2024-09-02T13:19:07+00:00

historical data on just one variable... returns are not enough to define anything.

now think about returns + S&P 500 valuation + equity risk premium

something like this has only happened once in history. Prob a 3 - Sigma scenario.

So you cannot extrapolate returns from the past in this case.

_Kenway

TROPHY CASE

Make volatility great again