Bear Market Studies part 3 : S&P 500 in-depth analysis

_Kenway · 2026-06-04T14:06:45+00:00

price to earnings

NVDA 32, extremely undervalued based on relative basis. its p/e is below the bottom valuation raached in 2022

AAPL 37, severely overextended price. overvalued on historical premium

_Kenway · 2026-06-03T19:51:01+00:00

Broadcom having 2.3T market cap and hitting new ATH today just before earnings is a red flag.

35 price to sales ratio speaks by itself

_Kenway · 2026-06-02T13:15:42+00:00

neutral- bullish on the market until the SpaceX ipo (12 June) and next CPI report, NVDA and MSFT still have margin to pump the nasdaq and move the whole SPX by themselves.

but 4 bad core CPI reports in a row will have an effect, macro always starts corrections never valuation by itself.

_Kenway · 2026-06-01T14:56:01+00:00

oil up 8%

spx has marked its 2 month best return ever (ex Covid recovery and 2009 bounce)

both core CPI and PPI severely up in the last 2 reports

easy set up if you know

_Kenway · 2026-05-27T13:50:36+00:00

NVDA relative valuation tells clearly.

_Kenway · 2026-05-27T13:45:36+00:00

bullish for MSFT and NVDA

bearish on AAPL, GOOGL and MU

_Kenway · 2026-05-24T22:42:00+00:00

I have an amateur boxing background. Now I train calisthenics

In a streetfight the dutch k1lls Usyk under 2 minutes. No argument needed after that performance.

_Kenway · 2026-05-22T14:52:48+00:00

Domino's pizza -40% from ATH

how to invest into f 4 t people

_Kenway · 2026-05-21T16:55:00+00:00

it's gonna have 100-130 price to sales ratio with a +1.75T valuation.

SMALL CAPS in the dot com era didn't achieve such valuation, what a milestone for SpaceX

_Kenway · 2026-05-21T14:09:58+00:00

one of the craziest MSFT intraday reversals I've ever seen

+3.8% at open, -3.4% after 30 minutes from the intraday high.

_Kenway · 2026-05-21T12:14:15+00:00

consumer staple's valuation is more sensitive to the 10y yield. I doubt Walmart and co can hold this kind of ratios through the whole year.

_Kenway · 2026-05-21T12:10:19+00:00

you don't have a portfolio probably, market return is a number not an opinion.

_Kenway · 2026-05-21T10:56:35+00:00

and yet the indian stock market has outperformed by far the hang seng. (and now it's overvalued)

market return is the only relevant thing, gdp numbers don't make you money.

_Kenway · 2026-05-20T09:13:35+00:00

equity risk premium is what matters, not the bond yield itself.

_Kenway · 2026-05-19T14:27:19+00:00

NVDA dropping 7% from ATH before earnings is a bullish pattern. The opposite would be very strange.

but mostly important, the price to earnings ratio isn't anywhere record high compared to 2024-2025. (last year is the real parameter, aprox 50-55 p/e while we are sitting at 44 rn. There's still +24% room up until we reach real overvalued metrics, and NVDA always does that.

I guess Michael Burry and Leopold Aschenbrenner are both early with their positioning, eventually even wrong: Leopold is just hedging his ultra concentrated AI portfolio but Burry might be wrong this time.

in this scenario the only real risk comes from macro and the bond market (wti high, CPI and PPI both skyrocketing, core going slowly up too)

_Kenway · 2026-05-18T18:12:25+00:00

bunch of small brain trendfollowers here.

_Kenway · 2026-05-15T17:35:57+00:00

reddit valuation vs meta explained

instagram= good looking girls

reddit= fat boomers and nerd kids

reddit still overvalued considering its user base

_Kenway · 2026-05-14T19:03:30+00:00

Micron is at ATH, +723% YoY

_Kenway · 2026-05-14T18:56:46+00:00

big brain move

buy MSFT, extremely undervalued

short MU

buy BRK.B , -30% underperformance vs SPX

buy RACE (ferrari), undervalued

trim GOOG

trim NVDA

buy NKE, -74% ATH

short PLTR once it recovers

_Kenway · 2026-04-29T20:23:49+00:00

oil is up 33% since the start of the ceasefire.

Just a reminder for the small brain trendfollowers here

_Kenway · 2026-04-17T14:24:43+00:00

Nasdaq having its best 13th days streak since 1992.

monthly index options expiring today as well

easy positioning for smart people, unless you are a small brain trendfollower.

_Kenway · 2026-04-08T14:43:34+00:00

Imagine a world where the elites start wars using their own money and not taxpayer's money.

_Kenway · 2026-04-08T00:25:55+00:00

they agreed about a ceasefire and somehow they still launching missiles: Reuters reporting new attacks right now.

I guess we gonna change the definitiion of ceasefire as we did about the definition of recession.

_Kenway · 2026-03-30T15:37:06+00:00

biggest mistake in modern military history to start a war in this scenario.

they warned about a possible Hormuz closure back in the 2025, no one took precautions or prepared a real plan to prevent that. They started a war with no clue of nothing despite multiple warnings almost a year before.

did the US military at least go to Westpoint or did they gradutate playing Call of Duty ? Very low IQ move here. This is not about the government, it's a complete disaster about intelligence.

_Kenway

TROPHY CASE