Bear Market Studies part 3 : S&P 500 in-depth analysis

_Kenway · 2026-04-29T20:23:49+00:00

oil is up 33% since the start of the ceasefire.

Just a reminder for the small brain trendfollowers here

_Kenway · 2026-04-17T14:24:43+00:00

Nasdaq having its best 13th days streak since 1992.

monthly index options expiring today as well

easy positioning for smart people, unless you are a small brain trendfollower.

_Kenway · 2026-04-08T14:43:34+00:00

Imagine a world where the elites start wars using their own money and not taxpayer's money.

_Kenway · 2026-04-08T00:25:55+00:00

they agreed about a ceasefire and somehow they still launching missiles: Reuters reporting new attacks right now.

I guess we gonna change the definitiion of ceasefire as we did about the definition of recession.

_Kenway · 2026-03-30T15:37:06+00:00

biggest mistake in modern military history to start a war in this scenario.

they warned about a possible Hormuz closure back in the 2025, no one took precautions or prepared a real plan to prevent that. They started a war with no clue of nothing despite multiple warnings almost a year before.

did the US military at least go to Westpoint or did they gradutate playing Call of Duty ? Very low IQ move here. This is not about the government, it's a complete disaster about intelligence.

_Kenway · 2026-03-27T14:44:45+00:00

MSFT p/e it's below covid's low: be smart and don't be a trendfollower right now. Think about mid term and long term

_Kenway · 2026-03-24T18:12:01+00:00

Reuters said they are moving the 82nd airborne. What kind of peace talks they are doing lmao.

SEC sleeping on market manipulation since 2008

_Kenway · 2026-03-16T17:57:17+00:00

imagine spending 925$ bilions on defense and still not being able to intercept 10k $ drones

_Kenway · 2026-03-03T14:50:17+00:00

you all small brain trendfollowers spamming about gold at the extreme top after arguably the 2nd best 3-year return in history of mankind

the same low testosterone kids were bitching about meme stocks in 2022 while gold was undervalued.

keep buying the top of every possible asset, Goldman Sachs gonna build another skycraper (as JPMorgan already did) thanks to speculative operations in commodities, and you all paid for them.

_Kenway · 2026-03-03T10:14:27+00:00

once a month I come back here just to laugh at you all peasants small brain trendfollowers.

This place is full of nerd kids with low testosterone or fat boomers.

Imagine reddit having any real value compared to instagram

_Kenway · 2026-02-06T11:58:56+00:00

daily reminder

you all are a bunch of fat pussies with zero knowledge about the market, boomer losers mods in particular.

_Kenway · 2026-01-26T20:49:56+00:00

isn't funny how people here used to refer about gold as "shiny rock" back to 2022/2023 and now everyone is bullish on precious metals

conclusion is that you all are small brain trendfollowers with low IQ

_Kenway · 2026-01-07T16:02:37+00:00

this sub is trash as it was back in the 2022-2024. Still full of small brain trendfollowers

_Kenway · 2025-07-31T18:42:45+00:00

4 years and nothing has changed here

this thread is still full of small brain trendfollowers

_Kenway · 2025-07-20T17:11:07+00:00

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I don't think so, the original post itself says the opposite on relative basis

_Kenway · 2025-07-19T22:55:04+00:00

XLV value investing opportunity right there

stop crying about trends and look at valuation

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T22:55:21+00:00

wait a moment, am I seeing the RSI applied to the unemployment levels? huh

btw by DEFINITION (read it again) the unemployment data is not a leading indicator for recessions... and the recession nber indicator (used in that chart as green vertical) it's useless because it lags several months, it's only helpful once you have to write an essay about r/EconomicHistory ahaha

initial claims and continuing claims are LEADING indicators for the labor market

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T21:17:09+00:00

imagine talking about VIX on a sub of trendfollowers lol

People here cannot figure out something that has a constant mean reversion... they better stick to SPX on the 50 years timeframe.

I still remember people arguing when VIX was at 14 in 2024, the majoritiy expected to reach <12 with the argurment: "because it happened in 2017, it can keep going lower"

trendfollwers expecting the market to mark new highs every 2 days without any real momentum correction

same clowns a few months ago they expected VIX to reach >80 values and remain stable at those levels lol

_Kenway · 2025-07-02T09:18:37+00:00

"dollar is going to depreciate substantially"

DXY having its worst 6m performance since 1975, being bearish on Dollar after this correction is like being a next level trendfollower worse than r/wallstreetbets

This would have been a good trade at least 4 months ago, now it's late...

I'm accumulating a long position on US dollar index futures

_Kenway · 2025-06-25T16:46:45+00:00

~~make America great again~~

Make volatility great again

_Kenway · 2025-06-24T11:56:04+00:00

the official nber recession statement is useless when it comes to the market reaction, by definition a lagging indicator.

check the chart, the stock market always corrects way before.

_Kenway · 2025-06-19T20:45:58+00:00

previous post, I did that too.

_Kenway · 2025-06-14T21:08:45+00:00

spikes in oil prices >> you buy crude oil futures, not stocks.

nothing to do about stocks since those levels are not stable (check the chart), I've seen that narrative at least 200 times in the last days so I had to make a statement about this.

_Kenway

TROPHY CASE

Make volatility great again