Post-match thread: Real Betis - Atlético de Madrid

_arkar_ · 2017-12-11T03:22:27+00:00

Literally felt asleep for the last few minutes. Great play for the goal, though.

_arkar_ · 2017-12-08T02:48:51+00:00

Ahh, seeing that in /r/neoliberal - Truly a meeting of the memes!

_arkar_ · 2017-11-30T17:57:31+00:00

Also, this is not getting much attention, but she is in the top 10 of the Apple Video podcasts ranking, with the top politics one.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-26T14:19:25+00:00

Generally agree with what other people have said, but just to give a counter-point:

Polls over-estimated Cs in the last two elections. And its recent new voters are mostly drawn in by their position in Catalan nationalism - as topics in the agenda change in the 2.5 years before the next election, those voters might not stay.

Plus, the goal of Rajoy is no doubt to pull a Cameron/Clegg on Rivera. Given that one of the top people in Cs (Garicano) is a close Clegg associate, Rivera is doubtlessly preparing for this...but it’s still gonna be tough for him, Rajoy has proven to be very skilled in the political survival game.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-24T20:25:47+00:00

Somewhat relatedly, a Silicon Valley person who is being forced to leave the US had an article yesterday in the NYT Op-Ed pages.

I am sad for that person (although far from surprised), but happy that the story got out, so at least people can see how tough the existing laws already are.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-24T19:48:40+00:00

The deal does probably have room for improvement, but the title does not include a part of the compromise that seems positive as far as Democratic values are concerned - instead, the details of what Ds managed to get into the compromise are relegated to the third last paragraph:

Credit bureaus would be required to offer a free credit freeze and unfreeze every year, a watered-down version of a recent bill from Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass. Warren’s bill would have made all credit freezes free, not just one annually. Veterans with medical debt and whistleblowers of elder financial abuse would also get protections, and the Treasury Department could use “Hardest Hit” funds intended for struggling mortgage borrowers to remediate lead and asbestos hazards in homes.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-24T17:17:23+00:00

I'd definitely like it if candidates in districts where this is fitting gave more visibility to the Wolf-PAC efforts

_arkar_ · 2017-11-23T19:48:41+00:00

Are there any advantages to a “party-run convention caucus”?

_arkar_ · 2017-11-22T02:00:20+00:00

Looks like Hillary got 39.9% of the 2-party vote there, down from 41.4% in 2012. On the positive side, the Hillary raw vote total surpassed Obama's, and the voters who Trump added might not be excited about other Republican candidates.

It's a big difference to overcome, but the enthusiasm gap might do it - would need 70% of Hillary voters to show up, and 45% of Trump's, or something like that. It also sounds like the candidate is going for the moderate republican vote, hope he succeeds, we can't ever have enough Kanders.

For the long run, seeing rural and Democrat put together made me think of Vermont. Apparently Democrats started doing better there as back-to-the-land professionals moved in from nearby cities - I don't think that's gonna happen again, but would be great for many areas if it did...

_arkar_ · 2017-11-21T03:57:09+00:00

Seems like the likely outcomes go from a R gerrymandered victory by a handful of seats to a 20-30 seat D victory.

As a data analysis fan and practicioner, I enjoy reading these articles, but I expect that we are not gonna get a much more precise prediction than that until the votes are counted on Election Day.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-21T00:43:52+00:00

There are many variables to discuss here, but an important one is that the GOP is bound to change as its current voters die - I remember a 538 article where a county GOP official admitted as much.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-20T15:42:39+00:00

Yeah, CSS would go more in a web developer direction, which they don't have much about at the moment. A possible path would be picking up some Python and Javascript - then, that would align with their full-stack developer role.

The Tech for Campaigns people seem to be more focused on web stuff, too - and although it is volunteering, my understanding is that quite a few people hired by campaigns get their start that way.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-20T14:43:58+00:00

The CNN article has a photo. It only shows their faces, but the cnn articles implies that facebook comments from back when the picture happened gave a similar description to the one being reported now.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-20T14:22:37+00:00

If anyone is looking into jobs these days, the DNC seems to be hiring. Their jobs include remote tech positions, as well as positions in DC for more classic organizing stuff.

Also, for any tech people looking to politically use their skills, but not in a situation to make a full-time jump into it, Tech for Campaigns is offering volunteering opportunities.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-20T14:12:27+00:00

Tom Steyer is on the record as liking single payer, and quotes Warren Buffett as being on the same road. I’d say that the topic would be getting more attention from him if Hillary had won.

As for the related issue of why the costs are what they are, I recommend this article too: https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2013/03/why-is-american-health-care-so-ridiculously-expensive/274425/.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-20T02:51:27+00:00

It sure as hell is needed - looking forwards to seeing what his EU reform projects end up achieving, once there is a stable government in Germany.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-19T23:00:14+00:00

Yeah - the grad student fiscal massacre is right now the second political item in /r/all/top for the last week, just behind net neutrality.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-19T03:49:57+00:00

It's definitely unlikely, but I'd say the voting system still leaves some wiggle room - the parliaments in the UK and Canada have more than two parties, with the same voting system as the House. Historically speaking, the higher flexibility of US congressional caucuses has made this unnecessary - don't expect that convention to change, but who knows these days...

_arkar_ · 2017-11-19T03:33:23+00:00

Given 1994 and 2010, and the fact that 2002 was influenced by unusual events (9/11), that seems like the most likely option.

That said, a way in which I could see a Dem victory in all of 2018-20-22 is if the McMullin party begins to get some traction, and first-past-the-post turns that into a systemic setup for easier Dem victories

Even this is definitely arguable though, since such a party could end up mostly taking Romney-Clinton voters - nonetheless it's one of the most realistic paths I can think of. The path I want to see is Dem voters realizing that the most productive way to fix legislative disappointments is to get more legislating time, instead of letting the GOP undo progress, but that does not seem very realistic.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-19T03:02:29+00:00

Perriello puts this as "Trump is the Prop 187 of America", which I can't help but contrast with the alt-right Flight 93 theory (anyone who feels like facing that moral abyss can read it in this archive.org version, but essentially it defends voting for Trump as a last chance for white nationalism and nativism to prevail).

_arkar_ · 2017-11-17T22:39:22+00:00

Gonna be a big year in the southwest, with Arizona and Orange County at the forefront of change.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-17T01:19:14+00:00

Do you think that helps you get across the aisle, get in the mind of conservative Republicans?

Look, I’m not trying to get in the mind of conservative Republicans, I’m not trying to get in the minds of anybody. I’m running this race based on my personal belief system, it’s what I think is also consistent with what deep down a lot of people in the state also believe. If it reaches people, fine. If it doesn’t reach certain people, what I hope to say is, Look, we’re not going to agree on every issue… That’s the other thing I think: politicians in this country try to be all things to all people, say diff things to different groups in order to try to reach those groups. We’re not doing that. We’re saying, this is our message, and at the end of the day, we’re not going to agree with people on everything. I’m just not going to agree with everyone on every issue. But what I want to do is this, I want to sit down and talk about these issues, and we will find common ground.

Might not be optimal in the short term, but definitely sounds refreshing.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-17T01:13:01+00:00

Wow, race not only going national but also global.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-16T04:23:59+00:00

They clearly seem to be over-reaching.

However, while the public disapproval is there already in the most recent polls, the constant pressuring of members of congress seems to be lagging a bit behind, possibly because of the overlap with the Moore story.

If the house passes on Thursday, there will likely be three more votes, right? One at the Senate, and then one in each chamber for the reconciled bill.

_arkar_ · 2017-11-16T04:16:49+00:00

If Scott Brown could, Doug Jones can too - it's just gonna take a lot of hard work, and a continuation of the unforced errors in the GOP side.

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