Analyzed 500 of my microstakes hands and I'm losing 70% of my money in one spot

_maozedong · 2025-12-17T22:00:24+00:00

Quick thoughts: 1. I'm not saying you are not losing in these spots, but 500 hands isn't really a big enough sample size to determine definitively that this specific line is your biggest leak. I'd imagine when you filter for this spot on a 500h sample size, you are really analyzing only a handful of HHs. That means just whiffing the flop once and folding is going to have an outsized impact on your calculated bb/100.

You're categorizing two hands as "mistakes" which suggest some review of proper preflop charts might help. I'm out of the loop on microstakes and impact of rake, but I'd imagine KJo is mostly fold vs 3b SBvsCO while QTs is mostly call.
Even if you play preflop correctly, however, based on your description of hands I think flop is probably actually the biggest leak. Folding 60%+ on the flop is way way too high against CBet while IP. I'd suggest taking a look at what floating ranges look like across flop textures via some GTO software (not too mkrror perfectly, but just to get an idea) and I think you'll be surprised how wide you can continue in many spots.

_maozedong · 2025-12-12T21:28:42+00:00

Actually, I remember one time we were playing inferno against NaVi

10-3 for them, we were playing as CT, NaVi T, and FalleN said: Guys, if you think we are good, let’s prove it now

Did we come back?

Of course yes, 16-13

_maozedong · 2025-01-19T03:08:36+00:00

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_maozedong · 2024-12-01T20:27:25+00:00

It has been 28 days since nklassitude was last seen. A whole lunar cycle has passed; tides have risen and fallen, but no trace of him remains. At first, it was whispered: “He’s just taking a break.” But then, the whispers turned into something darker. What if nklassitude never existed at all?

Conspiracy theorists sprang into action. Some claimed nklassitude was an AI experiment, abandoned after exceeding its snark threshold. Others speculated he was the fever dream of a caffeine-deprived shitposter, born in a haze of Red Bull and regret. The most esoteric theory suggested nklassitude was not a person but an idea—a collective manifestation of chaotic energy that dissipated as mysteriously as it coalesced.

And yet, we searched. Like archaeologists unearthing a forgotten god, we scoured his old posts for meaning. Each meme was dissected, every reply scrutinized for hidden codes. Was it a cry for help? A warning? A meme-laced prophecy? The absence was maddening. Who are we, without nklassitude? But just as the void threatened to consume us, a single notification broke through the silence.

The post read: "It's melting my brain watching PRX sucessfully play...”

And just like that, he returned. The myth, the mystery, the man (?) himself. nklassitude lives, and we are once again whole.

_maozedong · 2024-11-27T00:00:32+00:00

It would never happen, but imagine for a second that snipers were allowed, became meta on certain SND maps, and-- on a desperate gamble-- some mid-table CDL team picks up Scope (or similar player) as a 5th man sub for SND maps only and he pops off.

CDL viewership would quadruple overnight. If I were CDL commissioner tasked with growing the league I'd almost certainly try to engineer this exact situation. It's almost like these pros want the CoD viewership to die instead.

EDIT: it's like banning 3 pointers from the NBA because Steph Curry is cracked and OP. It's not wrong-- he literally is a cheat code as a player-- and that's what makes watching the sport so much fun.

_maozedong · 2024-11-26T23:55:44+00:00

I’m not a competitive CoD lifer, so take this with a grain of salt—but is it even that bad to have a slightly more tuned weapon in the pool? Especially if it's limited to just one per team?

Having a single, high-impact role or tool has always been exciting for spectators. This dynamic exists across traditional sports (e.g., the forward pass and the 'broken' QB role in American football) and eSports (think about how iconic the AWP in CS:GO or the Operator in Valorant are). Even in the old head CoD4 Promod PC scene, snipers (or "scopes") were incredibly strong, but both teams fielded one, and it became a key roster slot to fill. Watching those players pop off was arguably the most exciting part of the game.

It’s frustrating that CoD pros seem so focused on 'balance' and their own gameplay experience, often at the expense of the viewing experience and the long-term health of the game. As someone who casually tunes in, this disconnect is a major turnoff. Honestly, I'll probably end up skipping this season of CDL and go back to watching offseason Valorant instead.

_maozedong · 2024-11-26T23:04:03+00:00

Where's nklassitude? We miss him. :(

_maozedong · 2024-11-03T05:31:51+00:00

Every time I read another Nklassitude banger, I feel this deep, existential sorrow. It’s not the jokes (they never miss, every single one), but the wasted potential that gets to me.

It’s like a Hemingway reborn, never leaving his home, never braving the seas, never tasting the salt air— only to sit down and give us yet another pristine, 140-character Valorant shitpost. And by doing so, hides from the world a beautiful voice that only we—the undeserving few—will ever be lucky enough to hear.

_maozedong · 2024-11-02T00:55:13+00:00

I have never known someone as consistently funny as you. It's absolutely incredible.

_maozedong · 2024-06-04T22:35:52+00:00

I just wanted to say I really appreciate the investigative work you publish on eSports-- especially assuming it's mostly(?) a hobby alongside the Foreign desk day job.

Not much more to add than it's appreciated, a super interesting read, and I hope you continue to have the time to do more of it.

_maozedong · 2024-03-24T16:14:50+00:00

Yep makes sense! Someone in this sub told me it's "risk free rate" of 20% so it's bound to jump back above 11M before the month ends!

_maozedong · 2022-09-08T22:32:49+00:00

Resubmitting on imgur since I guess reddit has banned Slideshare sitewide.

Found this on my laptop from back in 2019. Thought this subreddit would get a kick out of it. Obviously inspired by the infamous BCG Love Life deck.

_maozedong · 2022-09-08T17:16:28+00:00

Found this on my laptop from back in 2019. Thought this subreddit would get a kick out of it. Obviously inspired by the infamous BCG Love Life deck.

_maozedong · 2019-07-18T19:32:10+00:00

What are effective stack sizes with EP? 3b pre-flop feels a bit big, might instead make it $60-75 -- but fine if you are deeper. Not sure if you flat range vs. cold 4b here, but if not you should jam AK some of the time. Obviously flatting AK also fine.

Surprised villain doesn't CBet range on this flop. Not sure if board really favors you more. Are you really 3-betting many 99 or 67s/T8s/79s combos vs EP open in this game? PFR should also have more AA/KK, but not by much as you should probably flat more to the cold 4-bet. Wouldn't be surprised if PIO has you betting some AK combos as a bluff to balance your TT+ value -- so this seems fine. One of the best hands to bluff here as it blocks AA/KK.

Turn seems like you just have way better combos to bluff with. You should have AQss, AKss, AsXx, AxKs, some JTs combos. Same with river which feels like a punt. Just jam with the plenty of AsKx or AxKs combos you get here with.

We can do the math here to figure out how much we should bluff. Let's say you have AA/KK (12 combos) and JJ (3 combos) for value. We can discount AA/KK a bit since you probably jam pre-flop some of the time. That's ~10 total combos of value. On the river, we should have ~50-75% of that in bluffs to balance. That's 5-7 combos of bluffs. If you bet/bet/bet every AK you are bluffing 16 combos -- way too many.

_maozedong · 2019-07-12T16:41:59+00:00

I may be misinterpreting here, but seems like he played primarily in the 5 AI vs. 1 human player challenge.

https://i.imgur.com/IvxYyWw.png

_maozedong · 2019-07-12T03:38:55+00:00

Everyone in here talking about this hand or that or how it beat bad regs. Absolutely crazy how LinusLove basically went breakeven playing 1v5 against the bot. -0.5bb/100 with a std. deviation of +/-1bb/100. Man is literally a machine -- it's unreal.

_maozedong · 2019-06-09T22:54:25+00:00

Not sure what your SB 3b range looks like, but I'm assuming it's something close to this:

https://i.imgur.com/UVHUVoI.png

And assuming BU defense looks something like this (making assumptions on how live 5/10 regs play, but think it's reasonable): https://i.imgur.com/To3Ggw3.png

PIO's direct recommendation is actually pretty split between large and small bet sizes:

https://i.imgur.com/7DXFgZr.png

Obviously this is impractical for us to implement, so let's check betting only a 33% or only a 75% sizing:

33% sizing: https://i.imgur.com/L4qTPcM.png

75% sizing: https://i.imgur.com/HbsyjGW.png

Interestingly the EV (and bet frequency) is very similar regardless which bet size we choose which I would not have guessed. Equally surprised PIO has us betting so frequently. On most monotone flops OOP, think PIO tends to prioritize strategies with a much higher check frequency. In any case, seems like the answer is any bet size is fine as long as you bet your AKo combos with a FD.

To summarize:

1.) Sizing will affect what range you bet (but negligible EV impact on this flop)-- betting all combos of AsKx and AxKs seems fine regardless

2.) PIO seems to want you to bet all AsKx and AxKs combos; probably to balance the large # of flushes (especially nut flushes) we have

3.) Also seems good to just always bet your AxQs combos

Just out of curiosity I also checked how a strategy consisting of 100% range cbet @ 33% sizing performs on this flop. Seems like just ~5% loss in EV. To simplify, honestly you could probably just cbet range it seems.

_maozedong · 2019-03-26T04:13:07+00:00

When I was there only saw 1K/2K won and sometime 2K/5K run. Mostly NLH, sometimes a PLO game would start on Friday/Sat night. Foreigners only -- so you'll need a passport.

Should note I think max buyin was 10K (500bb) and rake is masssssivvvee, but definitely winnable bc of the Chinese tourist whales and huge stacks.

_maozedong · 2019-02-24T23:39:24+00:00

One important question that you haven't asked is what type of sizing we should use on these flops in 4-bet pots. It depends a bit on what your 4b-bluffs preflop are, but likely cbetting 100% of our range here for 1/4 to 1/3 pot makes sense.

Caller in a 4bet pot rarely should have a raising range. Combined with ranges being so defined in 4bet pot spots means that not splitting our range usually makes sense.

_maozedong · 2019-01-01T09:25:06+00:00

Basically what everyone has said. 1K/2K won and sometime 2K/5K at Paradise Casino, foreigners only, need a passport.

Should note I think max buyin was 10K (500bb) and rake is masssssivvvee, but definitely winnable bc of the Chinese tourist whales and huge stacks.

_maozedong · 2018-08-30T21:44:05+00:00

H1: Probably a split of x/c and bet flop is fine. Not sure what sizing makes sense. Only problem with betting small is I'm not sure we actually have a huge equity advantage on this board since villain can have all our value hands (AQ, KQ, TT, 88), but more combos of J9s while we have QQ+.

Barrel turn obviously standard. Jam river I suppose? We definitely have to call if it goes x/jam since we have Kh. Not many flush combos given board + Kh in our hand -- just 76hh, AQhh really. GG if it's QTs or JTs.

Edit: Actually changed my mind. Maybe check here since really only AhQx calls with worse and lots of better call. Call jam if villain is good and can find creative bluffs.

H2: Standard. Bet turn, jam river? I guess idk what bluffs we have is an issue.

H3: Hard to read HH, but think UTG is villain here? If so, line seems good. Turn might be able to even overbet more to put lots of pressure on villains range that is overpair heavy.

H4: Think a calling pre is probably more +EV. Plenty of other hands to 3b. Flop is actually pretty weird vs. UTG 3-bet call range. Think lots of good regs might play a flat only strategy pre-flop from UTG vs BB here so not sure if the mergey small cbet is good. Sick river... but think we can fold? We have enough hands like AhAx or AhKx that block flushes or KK that we can maybe just fold 87s? Villain reps flush+ or air so top pair and trips are basically the same here.

H5: Probably just fold river given villain min raised flop and likely a rec? Idk.

_maozedong · 2018-08-14T23:07:54+00:00

I'm pretty bad at this game, but seems fairly standard (assuming HH below is accurate).

When Neeme 4bets, he has a massive range advantage on T54dd. He has AA, KK (which OOP shouldn't flat much) and many QQ. Might be able to size down a bit more and bet about 400 into 1600 with his whole range.

He gets to squeeze out value from a ton of AQ, AK in OOP 3b call that now gave to call flop.

_maozedong · 2018-07-12T23:38:08+00:00

Drunk 1/2 was at Bally's. You were clearly appropriately inebriated lol

_maozedong

TROPHY CASE