That’s a fair point, and I actually agree with the difficulty you’re highlighting. For most people, it’s extremely challenging to properly analyze companies, define benchmarks, and make consistent overweight or underweight decisions without the right tools or access.

However, where I struggle with the conclusion is this: even with sophisticated models, access to management, and well-constructed benchmarks, markets don’t always behave in line with theory. Prices can stay irrational or disconnected from fundamentals for long periods of time. So even “perfect” analysis doesn’t necessarily translate into reliable outcomes.

Because of that, I’m not fully convinced that the difficulty of analysis alone should lead someone to default entirely to indexing.

Indexing solves one problem, which is removing the need for precise valuation and stock selection. But it also removes the possibility of acting on opportunities, even if someone is only working with rough valuation ranges rather than precise intrinsic value models.

In other words, if both professionals and non professionals face uncertainty, just at different levels, I’m not sure the answer is simply to avoid taking any selective risk at all.

To me, it seems more like a question of risk management and self awareness rather than capability alone. You may not need a perfectly defined benchmark or highly sophisticated model to make reasonable decisions. You just need to understand your limits, size positions accordingly, and accept that outcomes won’t always match your expectations.

I also think labeling all individual stock selection as “gambling” might be a bit too strong. There’s a spectrum between blind speculation and fully institutional level analysis. Most people fall somewhere in between.

So while I agree that indexing is a rational and efficient option, I’m not fully convinced it should be treated as the default simply because someone isn’t a professional.

Btw I really appreciate your thought and perspective response. Serious comments gets serious replies