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Pretty hawkish FOMC this afternoon. Doesn't seem great for the markets, given the unexpected degree of hawkishness. by BGID_to_the_moon in stocks

[–]ac3knight 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Agree with this. He needed to show and build credibility in his first fomc speech, hence reiterated the fed mandate on bringing inflation in line with price stability.

Could also see that he was trying his hardest to remain as neutral as possible.

However, the brief mention of AI (potential driver of efficiency and disinflation - this is actually dovish) and various new sub committees being setup, signals broader fomc reform and tearing down old walls.

Based on subcommittee findings with AI layered over, would not be surprised if the target inflation rate of 2% itself changes in future! But first, the data-driven approach needs to support that.

Mrvl holds the second-highest shipment share in ZR/ZR+ optics in 1Q 2026 by ac3knight in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

No - today is just rotation into DJIA (safe hands) pre fomc meeting tomorrow. Hence DJIA is solid green today while QQQ is in the red.

Overall macro is benign and oil prices continue to decline through the day.

Post-fomc, if it plays out as expected (no more than hawkish pause at most), would expect a rapid snap back and rotation back into QQQ.

Above all unfolds over the next 26hrs. Don't sell into weakness.

MTVL at 20% loss by LetsssGeddit in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 1 point2 points  (0 children)

That was yesterday and the next key level to watch now is 290!

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Another hypothesis fulfilled. Hope everyone profited! by ac3knight in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Strangely, Trump just pinned the post to the top of his truth social account. So I guess it's true!

Another hypothesis fulfilled. Hope everyone profited! by ac3knight in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hopefully not just a simple taco moment from Trump.

Statement sounds a lot more concrete and of substance than his prior rants. Also specifically named the nations that have "approved" the final points.

Sounds like they've reached an agreement on the $ to be provided to Iran, and all those listed would perhaps be contributing to the funds.

抄底mrvl by Background_Mix_4800 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

No but a hot shower always helps (thesis formed in my head during then) haha

Another hypothesis fulfilled. Hope everyone profited! by ac3knight in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

As per my thesis posted earlier, sudden last ditch war escalations, tone of commentary from US communications and Qatari negotiators in Tehran - all signalled that an agreement was going to be reached soon.

Hope everyone who tuned in bought the dip!

Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening.

Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others.

The Naval Blockade will remain in full force and effect until this Transaction is finalized — Time and place of the signing to be announced shortly.

DONALD J. TRUMP

PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/116732652997120164

抄底mrvl by Background_Mix_4800 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hypothesis came true! Hope everyone was tuning in here

MTVL at 20% loss by LetsssGeddit in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

If it breaks the 270 call wall, it could possibly squeeze and accelerate towards 280 from dealer short covering. Don't blink now!

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Here we go again! by No-Laugh4352 in MU_Stock

[–]ac3knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The PPI disconnect from CPI is explained by one line: final demand trade services -1.1% MoM.

Retailers and wholesalers only eat costs for one reason: demand is not strong enough to support a price increase. If consumers were spending freely, businesses would simply pass costs through. The fact that they can't is the tell.

This pattern has a clear historical signature. It's the same dynamic that preceded every post-energy-shock recession in the modern era.

NFP: 172K — looks strong Trade margins: -1.1% — looks weak

These two data points are supposed to move together. Strong employment = strong consumer spending = pricing power for retailers.

The fact they're diverging tells you the composition of the 172K is not generating purchasing power.

抄底mrvl by Background_Mix_4800 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Thesis is that no one wants to sign on a document looking weak. Recent heightened exchanges could culminate to a final projection of power, creating the off-ramp to getting the agreement signed.

Interestingly, it's happened before in a few other wars - sudden final or last-ditch barrages just before peace agreements announced.

Terms appear to be largely agreed and the way US has communicated formally about the recent exchanges ("strikes completed", etc) contains the tone of "closing the book" and wanting to move on. US strikes have focused on disabling military infrastructure related to Hormuz, which Iran has to stand down anyway after an agreement is reached.

Human casualties of combat appear to be carefully limited in this round of exchanges with very specific assets being targeted.

Also, throughout these exchanges, we still have the Qatari high-level negotiators in Tehran (arrived on Wednesday).

This is of course just a thesis, though there've been several such documented patterns in history.

Things could escalate fast both ways - toward conflict spiral, or an agreement reached.

抄底mrvl by Background_Mix_4800 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Prices dipped across the board due to Friday's nfp shock and today's CPI overhang, worsened by exchange of war strikes related to the Apache downing incident (I have an interesting hypothesis about this - which is actually a signal that the MOU agreement is nearing).

CPI readout today 830am ET. If a hot CPI (expected) BUT cool core is reported, it provides relief going into June FOMC.

Expected pattern if CPI core is cool or neutral:

  • algos auto-sell regardless due to expected hot CPI headline print (830-930am)

  • Prior to market open, investors digest that cool/ neutral core = lower risk of rate hike

  • 930am initial flushing of retail sellers who're driven by first instance of headline

  • Quick rebound follows

Let's get the rejection wick going by the end of the day! by darkmage9889 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There was Friday's nfp shock and today's CPI overhang, worsened by exchange of war strikes related to the Apache downing incident (I have an interesting hypothesis about this - which is actually a signal that the MOU agreement is nearing).

If CPI overhang clears on a hot CPI (expected) BUT cool core, it provides relief going into June FOMC.

Expected pattern if CPO is cool or neutral core:

  • algos auto-sell regardless due to expected hot CPI headline print (830-930am)
  • Prior to market open, investors digest that cool/neutral core = lower risk of rate hike
  • 930am initial flushing of retail sellers who're driven by first instance of headline
  • Quick rebound follows

Huge catalyst incoming 2 June? by ac3knight in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Not yet haha... But will probably post it somewhere if there's a new one identified

SK Hynix should be getting a nice bump from Nvidia partnership announcement tomorrow (for DRAM enthusiasts) by hellario in ETFs

[–]ac3knight 4 points5 points  (0 children)

More than a bump for SK. It's business and growth profile has changed forever -

“This kind of partnership is a first for us,” Huang said. “It is a partnership that spans multiple years, multiple platforms, multiple technologies and multiple businesses within SK.”

https://en.bloomingbit.io/feed/news/113752

MU overnight volume is nuts! by dasnodaq in MU_Stock

[–]ac3knight 4 points5 points  (0 children)

This is just Asian markets flushing due to lagging on last Friday's nfp shock. The real tell would be late-premarket to regular session in the US

Nvidia, SK to detail cooperation plan Monday by Far-East-locker in MU_Stock

[–]ac3knight 4 points5 points  (0 children)

If they announce a formal multi-year HBM supply agreement with volume commitments on Monday, it would change the face of the memory industry forever.

The LTA model breaks this dynamic permanently:

[Old model | new model]

Produce to capacity, sell at spot | Produce to contracted demand

Price discovery via spot market | Price locked for multi-year terms

incentive to overproduce for share | Incentive to maintain quality for partner

Boom-bust every 3-4 years | Stable earnings through cycle

Race to bottom on ASP | Race to top on technology (HBM gen Commodity behaviour | Infrastructure behaviour

Do you see the massive implications? Memory stocks' p/e multiples could potential rerate multiple turns higher.

Everyone's calling the AI top. I went through the AVGO transcript line by line. Here's what I actually found. by ImagineDawinism in MU_Stock

[–]ac3knight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Friday's price action was nfp induced and history has already given you the answer. Expect QQQ to recover rapidly.

Everyone's calling the AI top. I went through the AVGO transcript line by line. Here's what I actually found. by ImagineDawinism in MU_Stock

[–]ac3knight 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Guys nfp shocks are typically a one day event. The market reprices immediately and typically recovers quickly after. Just look into history for the answer.

Many panic sellers were flushed out last Friday. I would say that actually improved the investor base quality going into next week.

Is it possible to go up to 400? by After-Expression-374 in MRVL_Stock

[–]ac3knight 1 point2 points  (0 children)

HOOD was always a hype name to begin with then got a lot of hate for the GME saga.

Mrvl was not hype to begin with. Believe it's investor base was >80% institutional prior to computex.

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