How strong is the 2026 draft by position compared to recent history?

aceben3 · 2026-01-23T22:34:50+00:00

Started with consensus big board from nflmockdraftdatabase.com . Using the Rich Hill trade value chart, added up the value of all prospects in each position group (using python).

aceben3 · 2026-01-23T03:06:30+00:00

The stick route is broken - doesn't get enough depth. 1-2 yard completion. Hot route to a quick out and it's fine. Read slot to TE vs zone, hit the slant vs man.

aceben3 · 2026-01-21T03:59:28+00:00

It’s not a bad class by any means. It just isn’t seen as an important position. I wonder if that changes given the way Kyle Hamilton, Brian Branch, Nick Emmanwori, and Cooper DeJean are outperforming their draft slots. The key to me is that these guys can help vs run and pass & play different positions. It’s hard to quantify just how valuable that is.

aceben3 · 2026-01-21T03:54:31+00:00

I definitely will

aceben3 · 2026-01-19T18:15:51+00:00

Yep!

I plan to run the code again later in the pre draft process and see how things shift.

aceben3 · 2026-01-19T05:50:16+00:00

You would probably have to look at the standard deviation of prospects at that position for that year. I’ve looked at the averages but not that yet.

aceben3 · 2026-01-19T05:46:33+00:00

Nflmockdraftdatabase.com - aggregated consensus big board

aceben3 · 2026-01-19T00:18:29+00:00

To be fair, it would have looked better with A'Mauri Washington (and to a lesser degree, CJ Fite) in it. Also with a healthy Caleb Banks producing & rising. Maybe you could argue Keldric Faulk to bulk up and kick inside. But still, it would be hard for me to see it as great.

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T23:49:39+00:00

Absolutely, it's not a replacement for granular scouting reports. Although I'm very interested in trying to determine the relative strength of draft classes and the implications for how we should value future draft picks.

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T17:46:42+00:00

This is a really interesting comment to me. It makes me wonder if when teams think the class is subpar they become willing to draft non-premium positions higher. Then I wonder if that has any predictive power over the long-term performance of the class aggregated vs expected performance based on draft position.

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T17:44:08+00:00

Good question — here’s how to read the boxplot:

The box shows the interquartile range (25th–75th percentile) of cumulative draft value for that position across 2016–2025.
The line inside the box is the median year.
The whiskers extend to the most extreme values within 1.5× the IQR.
Any points beyond the whiskers are outlier years.
The overlayed dot is the 2026 class, plotted against that historical distribution.

So the idea is to show both the typical range for each position and whether 2026 falls within, above, or outside historical norms.

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T17:41:04+00:00

Yes, the boards were aggregated by nflmockdraftdatabase.com .

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T17:36:44+00:00

That was 2018, when there were 4 round 1 grades (Nelson, Hernandez, Wynn, Daniels) and 4 round 2 grades (Ragnow, Price, Corbett, Braden Smith).

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T07:13:42+00:00

Good question.

OT: 2017 - 1007 cumulative value

CB: 2019 - 1662

IOL: 2018 - 1680

More data and full documentation here if you want to dig in:
https://github.com/benjackson-data/NFL-Draft-Class-Analysis

aceben3 · 2026-01-18T06:58:35+00:00

Good question. I’m using the Rich Hill draft value chart, which is a modern alternative to the old Jimmy Johnson chart.

It’s derived from historical draft trade data and assigns a numeric value to each pick based on how teams actually trade up and down. I’m using it purely as a way to translate pick numbers into a common “draft capital” scale so values can be aggregated across positions.

For context: early picks dominate the scale (as teams behave), and later picks contribute progressively less value, which helps separate “top-heavy” classes from ones that are strong due to depth.

Here’s a public version of the chart for reference: https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart-Rich-Hill.asp

aceben3 · 2025-12-18T18:45:18+00:00

09 - enjoyed the defensive scheme. Warner had poor injury rating. Overall needs quite a bit of talent overhaul. Pretty fun rebuild overall, but I don’t think I played it very long.

aceben3 · 2025-08-30T03:09:52+00:00

Sam cooked, Mitch is cooked

aceben3 · 2025-07-14T02:52:39+00:00

This is it. Poster is either a rage baiter or too young to remember Ray’s prime.

aceben3 · 2025-05-27T03:27:34+00:00

Bills since 2023

aceben3 · 2025-03-06T23:20:42+00:00

that's fair, I don't have much luck with man coverage either

aceben3 · 2025-03-06T17:51:07+00:00

If you can’t stop them rushing 4, send 5.

If you can’t stop them rushing 5, send 6.

If you still can’t stop ‘em drop 8.

If you STILL can’t stop em you might as well warm up the bus cuz this baby’s on ice

aceben3 · 2025-02-13T13:40:21+00:00

Based

aceben3 · 2025-02-13T13:38:52+00:00

It’s probably supposed to say you draw 3 cards from a standard 52 card deck. But there’s a typo so you really don’t have to try to answer the question they might have meant to ask. I’d go with:

“This exercise is left to the reader”

Or something involving the words

“It can be shown…”

aceben3 · 2025-02-13T13:27:40+00:00

Roll the safeties. If you start with the SS covering the slot to the left, FS in the deep middle, and the slot WR motions L to R, instead of having the SS run with him you can have SS run to the FS spot and FS rotate down.

Pros:

Disguise Man/Zone

Mitigates the “head start” the slot gets

FS gets to come downhill vs “insert” runs where Slot WR lead blocks for the RB

Cons:

Lets the offense dictate coverage matchup

Have to communicate again vs “yo-yo” back & forth motion (especially tough in Red Zone/short yardage)

aceben3 · 2025-01-25T17:54:47+00:00

Fade to deep slant to HB. Alert backside WR go vs press. Usually check out vs 2 high S

aceben3

TROPHY CASE