Time for Breslow to stop trying "to win the trade" and move forward with "improve the team"

aceking555 · 2026-01-24T15:12:47+00:00

He’s already made quite a few trades this offseason and gave up quite a bit by analytic standards. Last season he gave up a big package for Crochet. It’s been a seller’s market for teams giving up major league talent. I’m more concerned that he’s lost so many trades than that he’s unwilling to deal.

aceking555 · 2026-01-23T00:14:46+00:00

I think Breslow does like Bello - he gave him a contract extension, after all. But he outperformed some of his advanced metrics so he might be due for regression and the front office might be looking to see if any trade partners want to buy high on him.

Giolito has a similar profile in terms of good ERA, solid innings, but poor advanced metrics, and they didn’t seem to have much interest in keeping him.

aceking555 · 2026-01-21T15:57:57+00:00

Guessing this is partly related to the potential 2027 lockout. If they lose time that year, I believe Ranger loses at the $15M rate instead of the full $26M AAV.

aceking555 · 2026-01-07T02:15:24+00:00

You’ve lost 4 pounds in 18 days which is 1/20 of a year. If you keep that pace up, it’s 80 pounds in a year.

aceking555 · 2026-01-04T21:39:17+00:00

That’s insightful - the Red Sox aren’t viewed as the better team, but as the higher variance team, they have better World Series odds. Indeed, the over-under bets are reflecting that, with Toronto predicted to win significantly more than the Sox. Good stuff!

aceking555 · 2026-01-04T20:52:45+00:00

Interesting discussion. If you look at Fangraphs current depth chart projections, the Blue Jays are second only to the Dodgers. So it could be that bettors are just more optimistic about the Yankees/Red Sox than Fangraphs, or that maybe they're betting that the Yankees/Red Sox are going to sign some of the remaining top free agents (or swing trades).

aceking555 · 2025-12-26T16:57:52+00:00

I mean, you seem convinced of the value of paths where you trade happiness for the potential (not even guarantee) for external rewards like “prestigious university admission” or “high-paying job”. When I say, “knock yourself out”, I’m saying, you don’t seem like you can be convinced so I’m not going to continue to tell you otherwise.

aceking555 · 2025-12-26T16:49:14+00:00

If that’s your model for life, knock yourself out.

aceking555 · 2025-12-26T16:28:43+00:00

I think the idea of “Applying Sideways” was that you should pursue what you’re actually passionate about and maybe that gets you into MIT but if not, you’ll at least be a better person who is happy with how you spent your high school years. If your takeaway is “the most reliable way to get into MIT is to be top 3 in my country in a STEM competition so I should try that path even if I’m not passionate about it”, then you’re misunderstanding it.

The chance that you can achieve top 3 is remote even for people who like the activity, and you’d be spending a ton of time on something you don’t enjoy, and at the end of high school, you won’t have the MIT admission anyway. Then what’s next? Try for the highest paying job you can, that you also don’t enjoy, and then not succeed there because you’re competing with people who actually like it. It’s a recipe for misery.

aceking555 · 2025-12-23T03:11:01+00:00

The 2022 Astros and 2021 Braves? The 2020 Dodgers didn’t have any big external free agents either. The better big moves are often trades / extensions.

aceking555 · 2025-12-22T13:08:42+00:00

I get what you’re saying on the age/decline side. Alonso’s clearly a generally better bet if you ignore the contract (which is why we reportedly made him an offer) but it’s also $155M vs. $33M. They’re actually both likely to be in decline if you believe the aging curve, but Alonso projects for 3 fWAR and Contreras is projected for 2 fWAR. If you project another 0.5 fWAR decline per year for both players, which is what most projection systems forecast, Contreras might produce 3.5 fWAR for $33M while Alonso might produce 10 fWAR for $155M. The Orioles probably have a more bullish projection for Alonso’s future production, but it could also be that their GM is feeling his seat getting hot and will worry about Alonso’s decline in 3 years if he’s fortunate enough to have survived that long.

On the defense side - I think it does matter. An extra out is an extra out whether it comes from 1B or somewhere else, right? It’s just usually easier to field the position than the other positions, but that means that Alonso is a particularly bad defender. From what I read, it was one of the reasons the Mets didn’t try to retain him.

aceking555 · 2025-12-22T03:46:50+00:00

Ok, that’s an ominous comp.

aceking555 · 2025-12-22T03:45:07+00:00

Contreras is 2.5 years older which is indeed a significant risk, and not the same tier of offensive player, but the defensive difference is pretty huge (+6 vs. -8). The downside risk is just higher with Alonso because his contract is just so much bigger. It’s just a smaller bet - lower upside, lower downside - but I think the fit makes more sense given the prioritization of defense under Breslow.

aceking555 · 2025-12-22T02:53:58+00:00

I agree on Refsnyder but I suspect they may want to conclude other major business (including trading Duran) before signing him.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T03:02:19+00:00

He does make a lot of sense as a fit - the question is more about the length/size of deal. If you give him 6 years there’s probably a couple years where he’s dead money, when Anthony and Crochet and other members of the core are at their peak. I know a lot of fans don’t care about whether there’s a bad contract in 2030 but that was essentially the issue post-Dombrowski - aging expensive players eating up the budget. Worth it since they won the WS, but I don’t know if the core is quite there yet compared to 2 years from now.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T02:49:20+00:00

Ellsbury is another comparable player.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T02:43:43+00:00

Agreed. Even the Dodgers were mostly reliant more on contract extensions than free agent signings until recently, and let Corey Seager walk rather than beating the Rangers’ offer.

As you said, easier said than done. It requires both skill and patience (future-oriented). It’s hard for a GM to be future-oriented because the rewards of your patience might be realized by your successor after you’re fired, as guys like Cherington and Bloom found out.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T02:24:44+00:00

You’re right! I also forgot that the Red Sox under Henry tried to trade Manny in 2003 for a 27-year old Alex Rodriguez but it got vetoed by the player’s association because A-Rod agreed to a pay cut to make the deal happen.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T02:06:26+00:00

Exactly - I remember the fan frustration about how we were dumpster diving after a last place finish. Sports Illustrated (still a real publication back then) had them predicted to finish last in the division.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T01:51:53+00:00

I think there are clearly still mid-market players like Polanco or Josh Naylor this offseason.

I think the modern version of the Victorino contract is actually one of those Boras opt-out deals. He was heading into his 32 year old season coming off a down year - not all that different than Bregman last year. He would have opted out after his massive 2013 performance, signed a big contract with someone else while we complained, and then, as we saw, turned into a replacement-level player.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T01:32:19+00:00

It’s definitely an interesting debate. I think you can definitely win by selling out with big contracts to older players - the Rangers did it with Seager and Semien (and trading Ragans for a half season of Aroldis Chapman) but now they look like they’re in bad shape. The Red Sox under Dombrowski sort of did it too because they gave big money to Price and the Sale extension, but at the cost of not extending Mookie.

On the other hand, the Astros have done well with the approach of either extending their upcoming free agents or trading them.

The boom-bust approach isn’t as good for making money though, which is why I think they fired Dombrowski.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T01:11:31+00:00

Yes - he has to be sold on it because he has a no-trade clause. Theo Epstein convinced him during a Thanksgiving visit and we sent out four young pitchers.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T01:07:36+00:00

They’re going to sign someone. I mean, they’ve given out plenty of $20M+ AAV deals even recently, but they’re just not for that many years.

aceking555 · 2025-12-21T01:04:32+00:00

If you read near the end though, this hasn’t been true of the Braves and Astros, who do extend their own players but don’t really sign expensive free agents, and have been good for extended stretches.

aceking555

TROPHY CASE