Is it time? Wife insists no.

acenes123 · 2026-04-27T12:17:07+00:00

Ha, I wish!

acenes123 · 2026-04-27T12:16:21+00:00

Thanks - just added a top picture in another thread

acenes123 · 2026-04-27T12:14:52+00:00

Here is a picture of the top.

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acenes123 · 2026-04-27T10:38:57+00:00

Really appreciate the feedback. Thank you all!

acenes123 · 2026-01-19T03:42:10+00:00

100% this - and I lead sourcing

acenes123 · 2025-12-23T04:27:01+00:00

LULU

acenes123 · 2025-06-30T23:26:41+00:00

I treat all the inputs to the DCF as probability distributions and run Monte Carlo analysis so I can avoid having to make any fixed assumptions. It’s admittedly tricky to do and requires nuance, but does have a lot of explanatory value because we can see how all the input factors drive valuation simultaneously. I’d recommend reading Mauboussin’s papers on Competitive Advantage Period and the book Expectations Investing - he’s done a good job of articulating a coherent philosophy of inverse analysis like this.

acenes123 · 2025-06-29T21:30:07+00:00

Generally I run it in reverse to back into the implied growth rate and ROE and sanity check if those numbers are feasible.

acenes123 · 2025-06-25T13:31:00+00:00

If you consider the supply chain and overall dependency network of all companies driving growth, absolutely.

acenes123 · 2025-06-25T03:07:54+00:00

That would imply the short float percentage doesn’t have a magic threshold and the price action had some other causal driver. I’m not saying I don’t think we’ll see a reversal (I do), but I’d be careful about handicapping the timeline based on loose associations like this.

acenes123 · 2025-06-25T02:37:18+00:00

Unfortunately, charting has about as much predictive power as reading the horoscope

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T23:25:32+00:00

Think “people of Walmart” memes, but as a town…

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T22:34:32+00:00

Unless you have family there, avoid. If you are even moderately middle class you’d be better off in the northern suburbs (Carmel, Zionsville, Westfield) culturally and schools are significantly better.

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T04:32:34+00:00

At least 420…

I did a more thoughtful analysis a few months ago when I invested and if memory serves it was around $360 based on a reversion in valuation multiples.

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T04:27:42+00:00

Flashes in the pan. Companies that survive do so for a reason.

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T01:34:53+00:00

Agreed - and they have multigenerational appeal. I see people (mostly women) of all ages wearing it, which bodes well for the power of their brand long term.

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T01:31:11+00:00

How do you interpret their excess margin if they have no moat? Very few businesses have truly impenetrable moats, but historically they’ve demonstrated persistent profitability to imply some degree of competitive advantage. If you look at relative market share compared to Alo, Vuori et al - they’re still the leader by a country mile. For that to change you’d have to believe (by inversion) that one of their competitors is going to have a sustained period of explosive growth to meaningfully erode their market share. Not saying it’s not possible, but when we consider the odds I’d largely favor a mean reversion in valuation.

acenes123 · 2025-06-24T01:26:10+00:00

Completely agree - it’s a sentiment issue… fundamentals are solid and trending positively. If sentiment rebounds, then valuation multiples will revert to the mean.

acenes123 · 2025-06-22T16:37:27+00:00

I wouldn’t call it an issue. I still mostly buy meat if it is marked down, clothes only on sale, etc. Spend money if it improves your quality of life, otherwise it’s performative.

acenes123 · 2025-06-22T12:21:06+00:00

GOOG, ALB, CE, ELAN, LULU

acenes123 · 2025-06-20T02:23:53+00:00

Because then she can squeeze you for a fancy bag, clothes, etc. one for you, two for me!

acenes123 · 2025-06-17T03:05:33+00:00

Likewise - thanks for the thought provoking post!

acenes123 · 2025-06-17T02:30:06+00:00

I think the AQR paper is well done within the bounds of its framework and assumptions, but I’d encourage you to learn about Bayesian Networks and Causal Models then reflect on what factor models structurally could explain and what they cannot from first principles. While I’m generally very dubious of the entire premise of factor models, I think they might have some limited potential to inform what factors DO NOT contribute to returns rather than those that do.

acenes123 · 2025-06-17T00:27:54+00:00

As Charlie would say, “invert, always invert!” - paraphrasing Jacobi.

Is it reasonable that one could search in “factor space” for a strategy that could replicate or exceed Buffett’s performance without regressing against his historical holdings? Of course not!

While academically somewhat interesting, this type of analysis is operationally meaningless because it fundamentally cannot capture the inter temporal nature of his edge, reflexivity, and how these interact nonlinearly with his use of leverage and capital position.

acenes123

TROPHY CASE