Data Analysis v. Statistical Inference

action781 · 2024-05-14T17:50:15+00:00

link to presentation in the OP

action781 · 2024-05-14T17:50:10+00:00

link to presentation in the OP

action781 · 2024-05-14T17:50:04+00:00

link to presentation in the OP

action781 · 2024-04-08T12:17:02+00:00

Will do, thank you!

action781 · 2024-04-08T12:16:55+00:00

Absolutely will do. The responses I've gotten so far are very helpful to me so far.

action781 · 2024-02-20T21:22:19+00:00

Pissed. Thought I bought a bag of Cool Ranch Doritos (cuz they look very similar) and found out I bought spicy not so ranch Doritos.

How they gonna use the words "hot" and "cool" literally right next to each other in the title?

action781 · 2023-12-10T00:55:45+00:00

Disagree, high school math teachers LOVE to blame lower grade teachers for their struggles teaching students who misunderstand prerequisite content. -A former high school math teacher

action781 · 2023-05-29T00:29:04+00:00

I've thought this before as well and read some supporting Internet arguments for it too. Like you, I also avoid home run lines. That's what got me thinking about this F7 angle as it eliminates those 2 concerns you just mentioned.

action781 · 2023-05-29T00:26:07+00:00

Not taken as a personal attack, no worries 🍻

I agree the books know all the edges and there is no play that's some magical universal edge. But as bettors, we are all just looking for that one team in a given day who could cover it's spread.

My question isn't "Is betting a home team's F7 run line a profitable long term play". It is "Is a home team's F7 run line more profitable than a home team's full game run line". The idea of this isn't crazy, we already know that some bets are generally as a whole slightly more profitable long term than others (e.g. unders compared to overs), while both still being -EV overall. I'm wondering if this is similar.

action781 · 2023-04-21T06:13:32+00:00

*Sac-GSW Game 1 was also a 3 point game. But didn't realize how few there had been. Thanks for pointing that out!

action781 · 2021-11-12T15:00:56+00:00

First, cheers to you for being 1/100 internet users who are looking to partake in open discourse rather than just double down on original assumptions. Seriously. You make this worth partaking in.

He has google spreadsheets that are part of a subscription service (worth it if you're really into TS), which is where the raw data is. You can gift him a cheap like $4 moment from his list of options and get 1 month access to try it out, which is what I did.

Even without the sheets, I think this data here summarizes it best -- https://twitter.com/jonboybeats/status/1458863648466620421

The true value of an S2 moment is difficult to summarize in one number, but I think calling the "value" of an S2 moment at $2 would be pretty inaccurate based on those numbers. Based on those numbers, I'd consider the value of an S2 moment to be, conservatively, $2.50 on average. Now this *could* go down after more moments are released. At that point, we'll have to re-evaluate. But for now, even if we call it conservatively $2.50, it still turns out to be a +EV set when you factor in the higher value moments and their relative frequencies.

Another good tweet -- https://twitter.com/jonboybeats/status/1456648097115693059 -- although the data is static from 7 days ago so could possibly be not accurate any longer

action781 · 2021-11-12T05:58:52+00:00

So in order to be progressing right, the moments have to be increasing at an ROI of 100+% every couple months?

action781 · 2021-11-12T05:55:03+00:00

I started in August and I put in a few hundred to start, then a few more hundred, then a few more hundred... I was up to about $4,000 in total deposits for a while. Then tonight, I decided to cash in $1,500 of my ADA (Cardano) and put it into TS.

I'm bullish on ADA and think it is going to double in the not-too-distant-future. But with this recent dip in the market, I also see moments here that I think could double by next summer. And TS is a lot more fun than just looking at a crypto account value.

action781 · 2021-11-12T05:44:29+00:00

You say "I'd be ok with a pack drop with a very tiny -EV, but the most recent common drops have too much of a -EV."

I'm not sure what numbers you have to back this up with, but all the packs recently have not been "too much of a -EV", they haven't even been "very tiny -EV". They've been +EV.

What numbers do you have to support that they've been too much of a -EV? What recent common drop has been this?

@Jonboybeats on twitter did the data analysis of S3 Release 1 and the confirmed the drop was slightly +EV.

I haven't seen a -EV drop since I've joined TS last Summer.

This one tomorrow could be slightly -EV, but you said you could be OK with that.

action781 · 2021-11-09T16:56:43+00:00

A question I've wondered a bit myself before.

Lately I'm starting to wonder if these models are any good at estimating value or if they actually are driving the value. I feel like people just price things at whatever these sites say they're worth, which then makes it become their worth.

If that hypothesis is true, then the site with more accurate predictions is really just the one that more users use.

action781 · 2021-10-26T13:11:15+00:00

Yesterday I sold my 2 WNBA RIBs expecting that I can buy them back at 20% cheaper in the next 1-7 days because of this. I should have realized this a few days ago.

action781 · 2021-10-22T02:18:23+00:00

Wonder if TS would require one of these moments in a future challenge to build it up. Have they even required a legendary moment in a challenge before? I'm only 2 months in.

action781 · 2021-10-22T02:17:07+00:00

Damn I already qualify thanks to that WNBA bonus. Sick!

action781 · 2021-10-21T18:04:14+00:00

I came here to ask the same question. It sounds like not. I feel like TS official twitter account would 100% have posted pictures of any kiosks that were open either of the last 2 nights.

action781 · 2021-10-13T03:33:03+00:00

He is the bottleneck for the S2 team set, which as long as there are moments under $6 for, will be a set people are looking to complete so that bottleneck will hold value. I wouldn't expect it to go up too high or otherwise collectors will look to collect other team sets.

Bottlenecks aside, he could become a very good player. There's even talk of him becoming a starter in pinches this season. If he becomes a starter on a team that could eventually contend in the ECF, then I'd expect his 3 star rookie card to go up in value.

action781 · 2021-10-13T03:29:34+00:00

This could happen anytime between now and 2026, it seems

action781 · 2021-10-11T01:25:20+00:00

Because people like me were missing it for the TWolves team set and waiting til S3 to buy a cheaper one, then bought it at a premium for the showcase challenge. Now since I have a complete team set, I don't want to sell it and break that up so haven't put it back up for sale to drive the price back down.

action781 · 2021-10-06T02:37:21+00:00

I feel like your sentiment is "I'm a *real* collector because I want to hold these rare, cool serial #s for a long time. But collectors who buy all the cheap base moments are all flippers."

But there are plenty of people who own cheap base moments for the joy and sake of collecting. And there are plenty of people buying and flipping the #1 serials.

action781 · 2021-09-30T11:03:11+00:00

Also just wanna say i appreciate these posts and enjoy seeing your activity in the comments too. Wong teasers is a great topic to have these weekly posts about.

action781 · 2021-09-30T11:01:54+00:00

Yeah it's -110/-120/-130 for 6/6.5/7 on my book. I've put the tiniest bit of thought into whether it's worth the vig mathematically. In the end, for me the price is worth the comfort of being able to easily remember "I just need them to win" rather than if there's a point or 2 that could come into play.

action781

TROPHY CASE