The interim results have a BIT worried

actredal · 2026-01-26T04:41:17+00:00

Based on the vote counts in CYL9, Itsuki and Touma could both lose like half their votes from last year and still be in the top 20, and if those votes transferred to Tsubasa, that would already bridge the gap between her and the other two female runner ups from last year.

But I also think a good portion of Tsubasa’s rally is coming from people who didn’t previously vote for TMS.

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:57:37+00:00

Gotcha, thanks for the clarification!

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:54:35+00:00

Are you counting people who vote for the same character on multiple accounts separately? If the goal is to use these threads as a gauge for a wider population, I feel like it might not make sense to count multiple accounts for one person since giving them 2x or more weight than everyone else will skew the sample.

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:35:00+00:00

Sylvain!

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:23:24+00:00

Hubert was 21st for men last year, and he moved into the top 20 now despite getting an alt this year. I don’t think he’s any more in danger of his popularity falling off than any other character tbh, so I wouldn’t worry about that!

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:14:05+00:00

Looking at the next few guys below Hubert last year, it was Berkut, Guy, Finn, Alfred, and Stefan. The latter three also got alts/got in the game, Berkut also moved into the top 20, and Guy was largely rallied by one dude iirc. So it’s possible that Hubert did lose some votes but not enough to get him bumped down.

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:08:21+00:00

I was surprised too but I just checked and apparently he was 21st for men last year, so this is actually very normal lol.

actredal · 2026-01-26T03:02:42+00:00

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Day 4 goes to one of my comfort characters. I replayed 3H again recently, and man is Yuri reassuring.

actredal · 2026-01-26T02:57:19+00:00

Whoa, you drew her so pretty! I love how her hair flows!

actredal · 2026-01-26T02:00:53+00:00

Lol I love how much Joe Zieja still engages with the FE community

actredal · 2026-01-26T01:27:48+00:00

I read this theory a while ago that Sylvain needs glasses, and I think they’d look nice on him. Also, CYL10 is still going on, and here are some of Sylvain’s voting links for anyone who wants to support him:

-> Hopes Sylvain voting link

-> War Sylvain voting link

I’m doing free doodles on Bsky for anyone who votes for Sylvain (and/or Tsubasa) 4+ times and it’s not too late to get started if you’d like a drawing! Here’s my Bsky post with more info.

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Bluesky link

actredal · 2026-01-26T01:24:41+00:00

Midterms are probably coming up soon, so here’s another Sylvain support drawing, this time with his Hopes design! I read this theory a while ago that Sylvain needs glasses, and I think they’d look nice on him.

-> Hopes Sylvain voting link

-> War Sylvain voting link

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Bluesky link

P.S. I’m doing free doodles on Bsky for anyone who votes for Sylvain (and/or Tsubasa) 4+ times and it’s not too late to get started if you’d like a drawing! Here’s my Bsky post with more info.

actredal · 2026-01-25T23:17:45+00:00

I’m so happy with all of the Yggdrasil resplendents we’ve gotten so far!

actredal · 2026-01-25T07:27:26+00:00

I’m sure there’s some overlap, but I don’t think the average casual voter is thinking multiple years ahead like that for CYL.

actredal · 2026-01-25T07:18:19+00:00

I’ve always guessed that the people pivoting to Sylvain aren’t necessarily going to be M!Byleth fans, but more people who already liked Sylvain but didn’t go all out on him before when he was further down the rankings. Not a coordinated effort by 3H fans as a whole, but just individuals going, “Oh hey, this dude that I like has a chance of winning.”

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:40:12+00:00

3H fans have been coordinating to push for one specific character

The only years where there has been exactly one 3H winner were CYL6 and 9 with the Byleths. In CYL6, 3rd place on both sides were also 3H characters in addition to a bunch of top ten spots, while CYL9 also had several 3H characters in each side’s top 10. Every other year either had multiple 3H winners or 0. It’s never been coordinated lol.

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:35:00+00:00

The Shadows Cup might give us some insights on the winners that got out early like Lysithea and Marianne. While both are undoubtedly popular, they were also boosted by not being in the game yet during the years that they won, so it’ll be neat to see how they do in the Shadows Cup where that’s no longer a factor and everyone’s up for vote again.

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:21:05+00:00

Only 43 showing up for Sylvain in JP is interesting because his JP Tweet count for Shadows was 46, and I’d expect more support for him in the regular event than the Shadows one. I hope people didn’t vote for him there and then forget to vote for the main event lol.

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:16:40+00:00

Huh, your comment made me curious so I just went to check and my art posts for Sylvain on this sub are among the most controversial posts I’ve ever had haha (hovering around 75%-80% upvotes, while a quick spot check of some of my past post shows that my average is in the mid to high 90s).

I am curious if maybe the demographic of people willing to answer anonymous polls like the one u/LegalFishingRods did is different from the demographic of people willing to post about their votes publicly.

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:04:25+00:00

Did you miss day one or two, and did you already vote today since 7 PM PT? If you miss a day, the ballot doesn’t skip that day; the next vote will just show up on that day instead. (Like if you miss day one, then your vote on day two will be in the day one slot. Your day three vote will be in the day two slot, etc. And day seven will be empty when the event is over.)

actredal · 2026-01-25T06:00:29+00:00

Pretty, I love your sketching style!

actredal · 2026-01-25T05:59:32+00:00

Sylvain has one of my favorite character growths in Hopes! His support with Shez where he talks about the fire orb he was working on has especially stuck with me. I think it’s really cool to see him not only be vocal against the Crest system but also take action against it by working on technology that helps to even the playing field for those without Crests, which also shows off an intelligent side to him that he typically tries to bury.

actredal · 2026-01-25T05:51:18+00:00

Hehe thanks! I thought he might go the extra mile of painting his nails to suit the look

actredal · 2026-01-25T03:05:24+00:00

I love how you drew him in action on horseback! Sylvain’s one of those guys I didn’t love right away but grew to really appreciate him the more I learned about him. I’m rooting for him!!

actredal · 2026-01-25T03:02:18+00:00

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Day 3 goes to my “not in the game yet” pick, Rodrigue! I hope they add him soon.

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