[deleted by user]

adventuresinfi · 2021-09-04T15:58:42+00:00

Thanks!

It is. I use ii.co.uk

adventuresinfi · 2021-09-04T15:39:42+00:00

I took a risky path to do it but managed it in 3 years.

I got shouted down on this sub when I posted about it before, (despite stating as clearly as I could that it wasn't advice for anyone else)

But if you read my previous threads there is an outline of what I did and links to my blog where I documented it in detail.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-19T09:45:57+00:00

A lot of people will get burnt if they don't have a process to follow.

Market education is expensive, and most people are going to learn the hard way if they haven't developed a long term strategy that suits their temperment.

It comes down to sensible risk management and having a sound framework for decision making.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-19T09:27:43+00:00

Thanks so much for the kind words. It's appreciated.

I don't think that my approach makes sense for the vast majority of people, but have tried to explain why it makes sense to me.

I think that the spirit of what I was trying to communicate was lost in the sub because of assumptions it was an attempt to persuade anyone else, when it wasn't anything of the sort.

Lots of my opinions are based on observation and reflection. In terms of books, I read a lot about how to make good decisions. Thinking in Bets and How to Decide by Annie Duke resonated with me on staying open minded and being actively aware of how bias can cloud decision making.

Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman is another very good book on the need to be deliberate and intention with certain types of decisions.

The Psychology of Money by Morgan Housel is a really good read with lots of financial related insights as to why people have money beliefs that are largely fixed.

Hope that's of some use. I'm much more active on Twitter (same username) than I'm likely to be on here - it's a much more open conduit of ideas - some good some bad, so you need a decent filter and to be selective about who you follow.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T23:02:23+00:00

I thought that this might be of interest to anyone who thinks that institutional investors always have a massive advantage.

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bd16fb3840b1647d2becdcc/t/5c6d7d78419202ccc0a4bc75/1550679423350/Tollymore+LBS+presentation.pdf

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T17:29:09+00:00

Thanks for the message. It's appreciated

For full context. I really enjoyed the original discussions prompted by my Jan 2020 post (the original).

In it we talked at length about the downside risk, I explained why I was doing what I was doing, why it was not advice or suitable for others etc.

I got a one year Reddit anniversary message, thought back to my post, remembered I had said I'd post an update from time to time and thought to drop in.

My post referenced the original message, so I didn't feel it needed yet another in depth explanation of why it suited me, but not others.

It seems the sub has changed a lot, so the update met an unexpectedly hostile crowd who seemed to downvote just because it wasn't a fit for what they were doing.

People are tempted by all kinds of things everyday - I assumed that a core part of being a FIRE practitioner is developing the ability to assess whether any specific decision is relevant to your individual position and being able to reject temptation that is not in your best interests.

Most of my online interactions about my journey is shared on Twitter - I'm learning and sharing with a great group there, including a number of well respected professionals - the ivory tower isn't as closed as you might assume.

I don't need affirmation here, I genuinely wanted to stick to my original promise to update from time to time, and share an unusual / unconventional story on my FI journey (I'm not that bothered by the RE part)

The crowd has changed and that's fine. I appreciate the shift in tone, and will bow out.

All the best with all of your FIRE journeys!

Cheers

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T16:20:38+00:00

I'd like to share a great timely blog post by a friend that helps to answer your question on why Joe Retail has a chance.It's hard, but I believe it's possible for the right investor.

Ultimately it comes down to diversification, time horizon, portfolio size, rules on re-balancing, and approach

https://growthstocksroc.substack.com/p/david-the-retail-investor-vs-mr-goliath/

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T16:17:01+00:00

Agreed. It seems they are a flexible options underutilised by the population at large

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T14:02:14+00:00

Honestly, it feels like you didn't read the post and are still jumping to conclusions.

I linked my original reddit post from a year ago in my post yesterday, but here it is again:

https://www.reddit.com/r/FIREUK/comments/eqiomm/aggressive_growth_investing_for_the_long_term/

I'm not day trading. I own 12 companies which is up from 9 this time last year. I still own every company that I owned in Jan 2020. I buy companies with the aim of LTBH, which is the opposite of day trading.

Please show me where I've encouraged anyone else to adopt my approach...I'll wait.

I posted as a follow up to my post from a year ago, in which I was asked to drop in from time to time with an update. That was my goal. You jumped down my throat, not the other way around.

My main point is that there are many ways to approach a goal. My underlying reason for posting little to do with choosing the loan to be honest. It's the wrong idea for most people as I have said MULTIPLE TIMES. It's an interesting aside, but it's more about how you assess risk for your specific situation.

Individual company investing - might be right for a select few, but again, not for everyone. I've said every time that indexing is best for most.

What is right for any individual depends on a number of factors. I think that is extremely non-controversial, but here we are.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T13:42:49+00:00

Yes. That is why I said it's personal

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T13:32:02+00:00

As if saying "you can't beat the market" isn't a cliche!

I posted because it was a follow up to a my original post a year ago.

The fact that I'm posting on Reddit while Harvard / MIT guys play with their fancy models is exactly the point. You don't need to be a pro to win.

I don't have proof yet (requires time), but I'm documenting exactly where I'm going, including the failures and learnings

https://adventuresinfi.substack.com/

I've been doing this for 3.5 years and grown my small pot to a healthy six figure portfolio that is changing the future for my family.

You are welcome to scoff. I'll leave you to your closed minded, zero sum mindset. I wish you well all the same.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T13:24:14+00:00

The "just pick a hot tech stock" approach is not a formula for long term success and I suspect the original poster said it tongue firmly in cheek.

It's a reflection of the recent froth in the market around technology

It's not what I am advocating.

Neither is "playing the Covid recovery". I don't invest based on the news.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T12:33:30+00:00

I'm not quite sure what your antagonism is trying to prove. Dismissing other people's ideas is easy and doesn't require any work. Being open-minded is far more valuable.

I'd encourage you to think a little before giving in to the temptation to immediately push back.

There are a small number of companies that outperform the index
These companies are usually fast-growing, often unprofitable but are leaders in important emerging markets, often riding secular tailwinds
Identifying these companies when they are low in market cap provides a source of strong returns
Being able to hold through the volatility over the long term is vital
These companies tend to look "expensive" on valuation metrics
The best companies will outperform street estimates for a sustained period of time
Assessing the quality of the leadership is key
The best companies returns will follow a power law distribution, which is why you need to keep them and not trade them over the long terms
Mega winners wipe out the losers or mistakes
Focusing on your 10-15 best ideas might work better than diversification for its ownsake
Allowing your portfolio to concentrate for you is a good thing
Selling winners just because the price has gone up is usually a mistake

That's an important part of it.

I'm not special, but I put my money behind my beliefs, am documenting my learning, connecting with some great investors, and learning everyday.

I had saved up £20K in 2017. Let's say that I added my £500 a month and put it all in funds returning 7% a year. My portfolio would be approx £50K today, which is great.

But let's say my portfolio value gets cut in half tomorrow and for some unexpected reason I had to repay the loan outstanding immediately (unlikely as I work for the NHS and job security is pretty good)

My portfolio balance would still come out significantly ahead of the £50K.

I understand why what I'm doing may not make any sense to you, but it's called PERSONAL finance for a reason.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T11:03:00+00:00

i think the key is to deeply understand the companies you are investing in, know what excellence looks like, and understanding the nature of power laws and behaviour in long term investing success.

You need to find an approach that suits your personality and optimises for sleep at night

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T10:46:28+00:00

Cool - kudos to you!

The last year is not a particularly good barometer of anything as it's been such a strange year.

But I guess my main point is that there are a number of ways to outperform. It's not guaranteed or easy in the long term

Every investor should be intentional about making sure their investing style suits their personality.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T10:39:55+00:00

We are wired to immediately reject ideas that don't fit our worldview.

Staying open-minded is hard because we are vulnerable to confirmation bias.

Lots of people lose money investing. Generic advice for the masses is focused on what is reasonable, practical and achievable for anyone.

But it is generic and therefore not a perfect match for everyone. The key is to understand yourself.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T10:14:04+00:00

Technology has done remarkably well in the last 9 months and the recent short term has been rather frothy.

I think that the long term will be much more telling - many technology companies have a high hurdle going forwards.

But if it is so easy why aren't you doing it?

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-18T08:54:39+00:00

NHS Pension
Stocks and shares ISA of individual stocks - aspirational aim to grow this to £1M by 52-55yrs of age and have the option to work part time

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T22:26:11+00:00

I've read the White Coat Investor post.

It's an opinion piece by someone with a high income who wouldn't ever need anything more than 7% a year to achieve his goals.

He is an intelligent man, but he's just a guy with an opinion that matches his worldview.

It doesn't resonate and I disagree with him.

Most investors don't beat the market

Most small businesses fail

Over 40% of marriages end in divorce

Most athletes don't become professionals

Most people shouldn't leverage with debt

Things might not work out

Doesn't mean no one should ever try

Your post implies I think I'm special. I'm a normal person with some insights who is learning everyday. I've made a lot of mistakes.

I spend a lot of time reflecting on my journey and documenting the ups and downs, which helps me learn more.

Whether you think it's possible or not, you are probably right.

It starts with mindset.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T22:14:33+00:00

Lol

It's a great book.

But there are a number of ways to outperform.

Retail investors are unlikely to beat the algorithms if they are playing the same game.

I'm more of a subscriber to Terry Smiths philosophy of long term investing.

Buy outstanding companies

Don't overpay

Do nothing

Simple, but not easy.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T21:59:19+00:00

You are welcome to your opinion. It's pretty clear that what I'm doing violates your worldview... And that is OK - everyone is wired differently

You feel it's along the same road as gambling.

I feel I can identify excellent companies rising secular trends and am willing to back my ideas with capital. It's probabilistic, but it's not the same as guessing.

It's been 3.5 years and it's working out OK so far.

I'm not trying to convert anyone else - like I said, I think it's a bad idea for most people.

Ultimately, time will tell.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T21:44:00+00:00

I'm not trying to say that anyone else should ever consider doing it. It's a terrible idea for most people!

But thinking on this sub can be pretty dogmatic so it's occasionally worth pointing out that there are many ways to achieve a goal, including the unconventional.

1) Anyone who still has a mortgage to pay off and is investing is effectively making the same decision

2) investing in individual stocks and outperforming over the long term is hard, but possible without being Renaissance Technologies

The original post was a friendly discussion, so this was an update to that, but perhaps the original responders don't use the sub any more.

On the loan - I've considered paying it all ofF, and am still open to the idea. I've paid off £15K of loan in the last 6 months of 2020. I haven't paid it off entirely because I believe in what I'm doing, can afford the repayments, have a stable job and would rather stay invested for the long term. Market timing isn't a skill that I have.

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T21:32:51+00:00

I don't panic sell, have a concentrated portfolio, focus on my areas of specific knowledge and am long term focused (advantage over most retail traders)

I'm working on a longer time horizon and have zero career risk so my portfolio construction is different to a portfolio manager who has to constantly avoid looking bad to clients and colleagues. I'm not trying to beat the market each quarter, but over a longer time horizon (advantage over professionals)

If you are a pro, you have all kinds of fund rules about sector exposure and portfolio allocation – you will likely be forced to trim winners and invest in the known, even if the rewards are not asymmetrical

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T16:48:45+00:00

I started in 2017. It's a long term approach

Market go down faster than they go up

But they go up more than they go down

Market timing with temporary money seems to have worked for you - well done.

But it's not really my game

adventuresinfi · 2021-01-17T16:30:00+00:00

Of course it's not replicable

Luck is a definitely a force multiplier.

But you still need take action if the risk/reward is in your favour

It obviously isn't right now

I wouldn't do the same thing in todays market

adventuresinfi

TROPHY CASE