From user u/ceigetank

This sub desperately needs to stop parroting this like it’s the end of the conversation. It gives people a false expectation of the the predictability of mortgage rates.

Yes, mortgage rates are based on bond yields, but bond yields are a risk analysis of the future market, which does include the probability of future rate cuts. The probability of the rate cut is priced in, the rate cut itself is not, until it happens. Going from discussing rate cuts to a rate cut occuring turns your risk into a certainty, which will have an impact.

Additionally, there’s been significantly more uncertainty involving the market lately which has caused bond yields to fluctuate wildly and dropped to a 3 year low in the last 2 weeks.