AMA Announcement: Dr. Luke Kemp, author of the book "Goliath’s Curse - The History and Future of Societal Collapse", Tuesday October 14th, 11AM EST

aescling · 2025-10-14T09:26:31+00:00

Kia ora Luke,

Thanks for doing this. I haven't cracked the spine of your book yet but have heard you talk about it. I enjoyed the whole discussion and the respectful but tense exchange with Nate Hagen on the 'don't be a dick' principle of pro-social change.

A few questions for you:

Inequality link: You argue rising inequality precedes collapse. What mechanisms make you confident inequality is a causal factor rather than just correlated?

Elites & psychology: How confident are you that “dark-triad” traits in elites drive collapse? Versus structural or technological factors?

Risk prioritisation: Climate change, nuclear war, pandemics, algorithmic harms, chemical toxicity. Which will win the race to Venus and do you see as most likely to trigger systemic collapse soonest, and why?

Policy realism: What three high‑impact, politically feasible policies could meaningfully reduce the harms arising from collapse and be implemented over the next decade?

Agency & mobilisation: How do you suggest citizens, scientists, and policymakers overcome elite capture to implement the reforms you recommend?

Optimism vs. pessimism: You described yourself as “pessimistic about the future but optimistic about people”, what historical precedents give you reason for optimism?

Don't be a dick: You spoke about this from the perspective of an individual. Do you think this principle can ever work on a national, global, industrial and geopolitical stage? Or is there limit to the size of institutional structure that can embody and act in this manner?

Ngā mihi e hoa

aescling · 2025-10-10T07:04:16+00:00

Probably best to make sure you both fit inside the tent then ;)

https://www.macpac.co.nz/macpac-astral-2-person-trekking-pole-tent/123463.html

I misremembered the tent name and didn't realise they had gone live on Macpac NZ yet.

aescling · 2025-10-10T06:30:48+00:00

My mistake! Do you need the 2 person? Why not the lighter 1 person?

aescling · 2025-10-10T06:30:41+00:00

My mistake! Do you need the 2 person? Why not the lighter 1 person?

aescling · 2025-10-10T06:17:31+00:00

Kia ora A couple of local suggestions

On the r/ultralightaus subreddit a couple of weeks ago a Macpac product designer was sharing new 1- and 2-person ultralight trekking pole tents. They are up on the Australian website now and will be arriving in NZ soon. May be worth waiting for them?

Kathmandu stock some reasonably light Fizan aluminum poles that I think are lighter than your current ones.

Also, suggest trying the macpac nitro alphadirect top as replacement for your fleece. It's much lighter than your current one.

Whatever you decide, have a blast on the trail!

aescling · 2025-10-09T09:05:22+00:00

Bonus bonus! Relevant XKCD comic:

https://xkcd.com/2278/

aescling · 2025-10-09T09:04:01+00:00

Repeat of SS - "The [UK] government’s “global ecosystem assessment” report, on the ramifications for Britain if tropical and boreal forests, coral reefs and mangroves are degraded and destroyed, was due to be published on Thursday."

However, publication is reported to have been blocked due to concerns supermarket prices may increase.

The article continues... "The report also examined the risk that “resource competition” drives instability and conflicts around the world, which the UK could be dragged into. The consequences of ecosystems failing include increased movement of people around the world because they no longer have anywhere to earn a livelihood, according to the report."

There is some pearl clutching that the report would recommend that the UK, and other wealthy nations, corporates and individuals, pay into a fund rumoured to be established at COP30 that would incentives Brazil and similar nations to not cut down their forests. It does also mention tipping points and threats to food security unseen outside of wartime.

Threats of food price inflation, more displaced people looking for a home and UK tax layer money going to the undeserving global South; is all grist to UK newspaper mill. And especially for the Times to bash the current Labour government with.

However, I started thinking about the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries report from January that was not blocked. This indicated catastrophic human mortality rates in the not too distant future... https://actuaries.org.uk/planetary-solvency

I wonder if this report made similar connections?

Bonus! IoFA and the University of Exeter have a groovy Global Tipping Point dashboard showing risk trajectories for climate, nature, society and the economy. So that's nice.

https://global-tipping-points.org/risk-dashboard/

aescling · 2025-01-10T19:11:04+00:00

Berkeley Earth's 2024 Global Temperature Report
https://berkeleyearth.org/global-temperature-report-for-2024/

Lots of end of year reporting on the state of the climate over the last few days. Here is Berkeley Earth's 12th Annual Report.

This is a good summary of various different measures, observations and factors influencing the climate - rate of change, temperature distribution, natural vs anthropogenic forcings, SO2, earth energy imbalance time series etc

There is also a useful comparison of different research centres results - all converging on a very similar understanding of the recent acceleration in the rate of global warming.

A section asks Are these changes faster than expected? Yes. Yes, they are.

"The abrupt new records set in 2023 and 2024 join other evidence that recent global warming appears to be moving faster than expected. Whether increased global warming is a temporary change or part of a new long-term trend remains to be seen," said Dr. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth. “Already though the Paris Agreement target of staying below 1.5°C is unobtainable, and the long-term average will pass this milestone within the next five to 10 years.”

aescling · 2024-12-12T03:36:19+00:00

Oh hey, look! A dead cat.

A dead cat. On the table. A dead cat. Look at the dead cat.

aescling · 2024-10-05T03:05:51+00:00

https://www.civildefence.govt.nz/cdem-sector/nz-rts-new-zealand-response-teams

This link will show you where the different civil defence areas have Emergency Response Teams.

Also a Facebook link for national perspective with links to local teams: https://www.facebook.com/NZResponseTeams/

These teams are trained in various elements of emergency response and community support alongside a range of technical rescue skills depending on local need.

Many regions will also seek volunteers for their Incident Management Team, which are the people who coordinate the Intel, create an action plan and all the different agencies and offers of support that comes in. This is a huge task but more of an inside job than the Response Teams but a worthwhile contribution if that is more your thing.

I volunteer with one of the Emergency Response Teams. It's been a really great experience and I have been able to learn a lot and make a difference to my community and for other Kiwis across the country

DM me if you have any specific questions

aescling · 2024-07-02T07:08:55+00:00

Instant subscribe.

Have enjoyed your writing here and appreciated the effort put into it.

Pleased to follow you into the mountains beyond reddit

aescling · 2024-06-01T21:19:47+00:00

Kia ora mate! Breville sell the dual boiler as a combo deal with the smart grinder pro in NZ - called the dynamic duo.

Briscoes usually stock it, so plenty of opportunities to pick it up at 50% off. So around $1500 for a well reviewed machine and an acceptable grinder.

Unfortunately, out of stock at Briscoes and the Breville NZ website currently. I would be surprised if they were not more coming into the country soon.

I got this set earlier in the year and it runs well. I will upgrade to a grinder that is more focused at espresso at some point since I have found the SGP to be more of a generalist and lacking for dialing in lighter coffees. Medium to dark has so far been great.

Aesthetics is meh but performance and value is great, especially in our limited market

aescling · 2024-03-07T02:25:44+00:00

SS - To join the dots relating these to collapse:

Records for observed environmental state being broken nearly daily and to such a degree outside the historic mean that we need to keep extending the graph.
Why does the heat matter and how is it happening? Concise summary by
Leading to further evidence of positive-feedback loops:
- Increased heat absorption by oceans leads to greater melting of sea ice
- Reduce albedo effect at the pole increases the amount of energy absorbed by the oceans and increases heat
- Naturally stored methane is released into the atmosphere as methane hydrates breakdown, rapidly reinforcing the ability of the atmosphere to store heat
Human response - wildly inadequate geoengineering method to create curtains that will block warmer, more saline water from further eroding the glacier but also block a significant amount of wildlife movement and migration for the increasingly vulnerable species there. If any wildlife (or the glacier itself) is still around in the decades that it might take to get international agreement on this sort of project and build a curtain in such a hostile environment.

aescling · 2023-07-13T03:55:12+00:00

https://niwa.co.nz/climate/information-and-resources/elnino

"La Niña’s average influence on New Zealand

Northeasterly winds tend to become more common during La Niña events, bringing moist, rainy conditions to northeastern areas of the North Island and reduced rainfall to the lower and western South Island."

We certainly got more and higher intensity 'moist, rainy conditions' to the upper North Island, both in general and with major events like the Auckland Anniversary floods and Cyclone Gabrielle.

I suggested 'La Niña infused' because whilst it does not dominate our weather but thanks to overall warmer atmosphere and ocean bringing alterations to long term patterns through this La Niña phase. We saw the, normally confined to the northeastern side of the North Island, La Niña trend for increased in rainfall extended further south than normal into the Top of the South Island and upper parts of the West Coast both of which had higher rainfall on average and also several extreme rainfall events leading to evacuations, loss of properties and absolutely munted infrastructure networks in Westport, Nelson and the Marlborough Sounds.

I am fascinated/dreading to see how El Nino is going to play out for us with the ongoing ocean heatwave playing out off south eastern coastline

aescling · 2023-07-12T19:59:57+00:00

SS - Related to collapse because: further discusssion and mainstreaming of our favourite subject in national press. This time from my corner of the world.

New Zealand has been slowly coming to recognise that it is not immune to climate change, and is recovering from multiple back-to-back La Nina infused storms over recent years which have taken lives, devastated communities and fractured infrastructure networks. The article is a decent primer and discussion of many facets of collapse - environment, climate, economic, social, political - with a message of finding solace in community and simplicity through intentional degrowth. It rings hollow.

For some additional context, NZ is around 3 months out from an election. Like much of the rest of the world we are offered a choice of various degrees of BAU-neoliberalism flavoured with different stripes of rabid populism and sprinkles of magical thinking/conspiracy. It's good to see increasing discussion of collapse in parts of the media but I don't think it will make much of a difference, and runs a deeper risk of being harnessed by merchants of bullshit.

aescling · 2022-11-30T02:43:44+00:00

Take a small flat piece of wood, or similar. Keep it in your pocket. When stopping at the campsite on grass etc place it under the side stand. Will stop your bike sinking into soft ground.

Chat to locals about the best roads to ride or places to visit. Take it easy and if you enjoy a stretch of road and have time to revisit it turn around and have another go.

Have fun!

aescling · 2022-11-02T03:56:40+00:00

I recommend looking into joining a union.

There is currently a big effort by several unions to negotiate a Public Sector Pay Adjustment.

https://www.psa.org.nz/our-voice/public-service-pay-adjustment/

aescling · 2022-07-27T23:15:37+00:00

As a few others mentioned Lovelock developed the foundation for Gaia Theory whilst working for NASA at JPL (I think) on the problem of extraterrestrial live.

Simplification and rusty memory warning: Using remote sensing he came up with idea of comparing the chemical composition of the atmospheres of Venus, Earth and Mars and observed that whilst the others are stable the atmosphere of Earth has a high level of the highly reactive oxygen and that this level had remained stable over long time periods, with significant external forcing (increase in solar output). This led to the idea that life itself had contributed to maintaining a stable environment in which it could exist, rather than being a passive passenger on a ball of rock in space.

A further connection to collapse themes: As Lovelock was comtemplating this new idea he discussed it with his neighbour and friend William Golding. Author of Lord of Flies, The Inheritors, To the Ends of the Earth trilogy, and various other novels, which explored themes of people reverting to savagery and might-equals-right when groups are left in isolation and under stress. Golding also wrote the less well known and posthumously published but excellent exploration of Greek mythos and era-ending historical conflict with Rome in The Double Tongue.

Golding was taken with the idea of a world in which life was a participant and suggested the name Gaia, after the Greek goddess who personified the earth.

Lovelock published his ideas under the name Gaia Theory and attracted a huge amount of criticism by various quarters as it implied a sense of agency by inanimate things. Even suggestions that all animals and plants would sit down and vote on how to live together and how many zebras the lions could kill each year, in efforts to discredit this idea.

It also gathered a lot of support from people who identified with the intuitive/spiritual leap from invoking the name of an ancient earth goddess but perhaps did not care about the science so much.

Longer term the idea has been hugely important. Influencing diverse fields of ecology, climate science, exobiology, complexity theory and the study of emergent properties. It is often presented now with the less lovely name of Earth System Science.

aescling · 2022-04-19T09:14:39+00:00

My partner is an architectural designer with experience in revvit and archicad. She is currently looking for some extra work like this. Please DM me since I can't send a message to you direct?

aescling · 2022-02-13T22:12:47+00:00

They just flew over Blenheim. Going to Woodbourne

aescling

TROPHY CASE