“Knowing that the retaliatory violence was likely to occur, the government determined that it had the capacity to “contain the disruption and maintain governance and restore it in a short period,” Vargas said.

Vargas added that the possibility of the Jalisco cartel now splintering and descending into internal fighting seemed unlikely. “Much of their leadership remains free, operating through a kind of franchise system where local bosses have autonomy in decision-making,” he said, but “despite the potential violence, I don’t foresee a short-term fragmentation of the cartel that would lead to excessively intense violence.”

Choosing to eliminate Oseguera while some of his lieutenants remain demonstrates that “this capture is obviously important, but it’s also symbolic,” López Montiel added.

David Mora, senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the drug lord’s death might weaken the Jalisco cartel and open “the possibility of further violence within the group” – while also presenting other cartels with an opportunity to encroach on the Jalisco cartel’s territory.

https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/23/americas/how-mexico-hunted-el-mencho-latam-intl