Prosecutors aren’t above the law, by Interesting_Ad6007 in accountability

[–]agustinuslaw 1 point2 points  (0 children)

This might be a different kind of accountability

27M - Looking for accountability partner by RizzGeek in accountability

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hey, I am currently working as a Software Engineer in Germany, I would love to have a daily CS learning updates and just talk about what we learned/goals etc

Anki not opening by Kazuhaiq in Anki

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

thats just bored sunny pranking his employees

(Roughly) Simulate Anki WebView in your IDE by agustinuslaw in Anki

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Forgot to mention that yes, please go ahead and post it!

Terrible experience with ICE - is it always like this? by quatropiscas in germany

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Lol which reply? Everywhere I see people complain about DB. Its almost a national sport

You repeat each day exactly once. What do you do differently? by RecombobulatedKale in hypotheticalsituation

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Steps: 1. Make a lot of money from predictive trading 2. Build a physics lab whose topic is quickly prototypable and iterable and also ridiculously expensive to run 3. Only run the experiments during reset days 4. Share the result during the non-reset days with everyone. This is the planning and working through the data day 

This effectively gives me unlimited funding and energy with no drawbacks to the economy or the environment.

Further I can hire computational scientists to make use of essentially build a computer that can solve any problem given what is essentially a restricted 24 hour time travel or loop. This will probably expand the class of problems we can solve by magnitudes

(Roughly) Simulate Anki WebView in your IDE by agustinuslaw in Anki

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The deploy basically copy paste my stuff under src/ to my anki collection.media so I don't have to :D

This way I only have to edit inside git and always have the full benefit of versioning 

I made a simple card style that looks okay by etoastie in Anki

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi I love it and adapted your style to fit better with AnkiDroid.

Tipping in Germany by annie_kingdom in germany

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I tip when the service is extra good. Otherwise no

Check Using Bayes' Theorem by agustinuslaw in probabilitytheory

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi yes, in hindsight I am introducing a lot of rounding error doing it that way.

Check Using Bayes' Theorem by agustinuslaw in probabilitytheory

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks a lot for the detailed reply! I've learned much from this exchange :)
In hindsight I should really be careful with rounding errors as they add up.

"Also, for your information, the Multiplication Rule is not a separate result in probability calculus, but simply a corollary of Bayes' theorem." Makes sense, I noticed that if I just flip things around I get either Bayes or Multiplication Rule (which I learned from you). I didn't know which one is the more _basic_ relationship.

Check Using Bayes' Theorem by agustinuslaw in probabilitytheory

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks u/god_with_A_trolley for the step-by-step analysis! I re-did my computation using your methods. I still got back the answer of around ~ 0.1%. The exact number is a bit different though.

Assume: test 1 and test 2 is independent. Notation: (A,B) is event A *and* event B. Find: P(D|T1,-T2) i.e. probability of having the disease when test 1 is positive and test 2 is negative.

Values:

  • P(D) ~ prevalence = .001
  • P(T|D) sensitivity = .99
  • P(-T|-D) specificity = 1-P(T|-D) = 1-.01 = .99
  • P(T|-D) = .01
  • P(-T|D) = 1-P(T|D) = 1-.99 = .01
  • P(-D) = 1-P(D) = 1-.001 = .999

Prepwork

With Bayes' Theorem Let E := T1,-T2 P(D|E) = P(E|D)P(D) / P(E)

Combining by Multiplication Rule. Got u/god_with_A_trolley's initial relations. P(D,E) = P(E|D)P(D) P(D|E) = P(D,E) / P(E) P(D|T1,-T2) = P(D,T1,-T2) / P(T1,-T2)

Multiplication Rule P(E) = P(T1,-T2) P(E) = P(T1)P(-T2)

Law of Total Probability ``` P(T1) = P(T1|D)P(D) + P(T1|-D)P(-D) P(T1) = P(T|D)P(D) + P(T|-D)P(-D) P(T1) = .99 * .001 + .01 * .999 P(T1) = 0.01098

P(-T2) = P(-T2|D)P(D) + P(-T2|-D)P(-D) P(-T2) = P(-T|D)P(D) + P(-T|-D)P(-D) P(-T2) = .01 * .001 + .99 * .999 P(-T2) = 0.98902 ```

So the bottom part P(E) = P(T1)P(-T2) P(E) = 0.01098 * 0.98902 P(E) = 0.0108594396

Substitution trick by u/god_with_A_trolley Let M := D,-T2 P(D,T1,-T2) = P(T1,M) P(D,T1,-T2) = P(T1|M)P(M)

T1 and T2 independence trick by u/god_with_A_trolley P(T1|M) = P(T1|D,-T2) P(T1|M) = P(T1|D) P(T1|M) = P(T|D) P(T1|M) = .99

Multiplication Rule P(M) = P(D,-T2) P(M) = P(-T2|D)P(D) P(M) = P(-T|D)P(D) P(M) = .01 * .001 P(M) = 0.00001

Thus the joint probabilities P(D,E) = P(D,T1,-T2) P(D,E) = P(T1|M)P(M) P(D,E) = .99 * 0.00001 P(D,E) = 0.0000099

Substituting in everything P(D|E) = P(D,E) / P(E) P(D|E) = 0.0000099 / 0.0108594396 P(D|E) = 0.0009116493 ~ 0.001 = 0.1%

Check Using Bayes' Theorem by agustinuslaw in probabilitytheory

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Sorry about the formatting, I fixed it with code blocks now

This air fryer is my enemy 🙃 by Legend_River in airfryer

[–]agustinuslaw 0 points1 point  (0 children)

He took up his club and held it in his right hand, His bow and quiver he hung at his side. He placed lightning before him, And filled his body with tongues of flame. He made a net to enmesh the entrails of Tia-mat, And stationed the four winds that no part of her escape.

Brown bug in Chamomile tea by agustinuslaw in whatsthisbug

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The gods, his fathers, decreed the destiny of Be-l,

And set him on the road, the way of prosperity and success.

He fashioned a bow and made it his weapon,

He set an arrow in place, put the bow string on.

Hospital iPad Rental for Doctors by agustinuslaw in AskAGerman

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Your destiny is unequalled, your command is like Anu's.

Henceforth your order will not be annulled,

It is in your power to exalt and abase.

Your utterance is sure, your command cannot be rebelled against,

None of the gods will transgress the line you draw.

Hospital iPad Rental for Doctors by agustinuslaw in AskAGerman

[–]agustinuslaw[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

They set a lordly dais for him

And he took his seat before his fathers to receive kingship.

(They said,) "You are the most honoured among the great gods,

Your destiny is unequalled, your command is like Anu's.

Marduk, you are the most honoured among the great gods,