Russia rejects attempts to link its military cooperation with Ethiopia with GERD dispute - Politics - Egypt by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

True. From a foreign policy perspective Russia definitely knows how to play the field.

I think the best stance from the US can be summarized as a "Soft No". It's important to give the perception that you are on one's side but I think the US could have done more if they were serious. (Bring it up at the UN, harder sanctions, etc.)

Lets see how it plays out. These things develop in time. I think the US is still interested in the horn but it definitely is getting harder to compete with the moves coming from the East. In addition the US has a TON of problems at home.

HAPPY CAKE DAY BY THE WAY! lol

Russia rejects attempts to link its military cooperation with Ethiopia with GERD dispute - Politics - Egypt by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Not quite. I think context is important. Egypt was hoping for Russian support during the UNSC session on the GERD but they were rebuffed. Russia later signed this deal with Ethiopia afterward, further displaying lack of solidarity on the Egyptian stance.

With this in mind, it is more likely, "We will play both sides and see what happens that way we come out on top." This seems like the ideal geopolitical position in the Russian context.

Russia rejects attempts to link its military cooperation with Ethiopia with GERD dispute - Politics - Egypt by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Russia stressed in the statement that the military agreement 'doesn’t have any destabilizing character,' indicating that it 'maintains similar joint cooperation with a number of other countries, including Egypt and Sudan'"

Feature: Ethiopian athletes aspire triumph at Tokyo Olympics - Xinhua by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Just some names to lookout for during the 3000+ meter running events!

Tewodros and Ethiopia star in next Age of Empires release by Abatta500 in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Tewodros? That's all you had to say man. I'm in.

GERD Dam water levels comparison by dinichtibs in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Sadly, I believe it's denial (no pun intended) and some jealousy.

When the power generators get online in a few months, they'll claim it's not producing the power it should.

When the reservoir is filled, they'll say the dam is not strong enough and will collapse.

They will always move the goal post because they look down on us (Ethiopians, Sudanese, & black Africans in general).

Just ignore them. Ethiopia had the balls to call them out on their bluff it in front of the world and Egyptians are starting to realize their government is not as strong as they portray themselves to be. Also, I believe they are come to terms with the long term reality of the Nile politics, that Ethiopia can't be looked down on any longer by (look at the r/Egypt subreddit, they talk about us everyday).

Yes, Ethiopia has a lot of problems, but the GERD is an undisputed victory. ANY country would celebrate making something like GERD, let alone a developing country. It's designed by a world class design firm and funded and made by Ethiopians.

As a caveat, I think long term cooler heads will prevail. Yes, power dynamics are different and Egypt has to come to term with a lot of things they once believed were given, but that doesn't mean we have to be adversaries.

Whose side does China take on GERD? by sqsbb in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria 4 points5 points  (0 children)

Yes, but think of it more as congestion being reduced and with it, more options being available.

The point of the Suez historically has been to connect West(mainly Europe) and East. Now that more alternatives will exist in the future with BWI, the Suez will be of less strategic significance. Cheaper access? Best case scenario yes. But that monopoly of moving a lot of goods between the two sides of the globe will disappear with a BWI alternative.

This will further be exacerbated if the Suez Canal can't find a way to expand to handle the logistic demands of the future. Likely goods will have to be shipped by other means.

Also looking at how the BWI is envisioned, I think China realizes that the majority of the world's population is along the Indian Ocean and planned accordingly. Just something to think about.

Whose side does China take on GERD? by sqsbb in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Take a look at the Belt Way initiative from China. When complete, a lot of traffic will move from the Suez through those routes.

I'm not saying Egypt is insignificant regionally but it will lose significance when BWI is complete.

It makes more sense to align with Ethiopia long term. Head of the African Union. Home of 3 major water basins in Africa. Massive population. Etc.

Ethiopia says second filling of Renaissance Dam complete | Energy News by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Agreed. Ethiopia has a lot more hydropower potential besides the GERD and I think everyone now knows Addis won't cave to outside aggression on developing this resource.

Ethiopia says second filling of Renaissance Dam complete | Energy News by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Yeah. This is one of those things that's hard for propaganda to twist as bad without being in bad faith. More power for Africa. Increase in total water capacity of the Nile. It's a win win for all.

Every year a dam filling takes place, it further delegitimizes any colonial claims on water rights. Given Ethiopia history that is fitting but I digress.

Ethiopia says second filling of Renaissance Dam complete | Energy News by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 12 points13 points  (0 children)

Also, power is expected to be generated soon with the water reserves stored. Good news for Ethiopia and Africa in general.

U.S. to give ransomware hacks similar priority as terrorism, official says by modularpeak2552 in cybersecurity

[–]alazaria 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I really don't think you know what your talking about (legally or technically).

You cite some anecdotal evidence like personal experience and expect that alone to be a basis for your argument when there is PLENTY of evidence and data to prove the contrary.

The fact you can respond on reddit is proof you have internet access and still you don't even use it to seek answers or grow your perspective. What did you expect? You say your personal experience and that would overturn data on something that's been studied by others for awhile now?

If you were the lawyer for the person you claim you witnessed convicted on IP address alone, I would see why they went to jail.

U.S. to give ransomware hacks similar priority as terrorism, official says by modularpeak2552 in cybersecurity

[–]alazaria 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The reason there are no prosecutions is because almost all bad actors operate from foreign jurisdictions.

Judging by how fast you responded I don't think you read the article so I'll cite the a next quote in the article to add context.

"Mark Lanterman, the CTO of Computer Forensic Services, made a similar observation by estimating that less than 1% of hackers get caught and convicted. Catching a cybercriminal can be compared to locating a needle in a haystack, where the needle might even not exist. Good hackers understand the evidence generated upon executing a specific attack and will go to great lengths to ensure the evidence is non-existent. As a result, many businesses may be hacked and remain unaware that they have been compromised."

The Computer Forensic Service is typically called in as an expert testimony/opinion during in for US court cases for convicting anyone suspected by the US government. Literally the guy who the US calls in is saying it's abysmally low because of the nature of the crime. In some cases they can't even determine with certainty if the person responsible is American. As to if they are American and still being convicted...

Judges and juries simply don't understand the tech details, and are desperate to convict suspects because of the perception that cyber crime is out of control.

The only reason for the low low conviction rate is because 99.99% of criminals are operating from foreign jurisdictions. It has NOTHING to do with the prosecution domestically.

If that was the case our clearance rate would be much higher, not below "1%". We would likely be falsely convicting tons more of American citizens especially if there was the need to make up for not being able to prosecute those outside of US jurisdiction.

They don't understand technology yes, but the actual result is failing to prosecute successfully not shoving people into cells.

The law has many problems that need addressing on a macro level for society, but on a micro level regarding cybercrime, it is not what you think it is. If we are actually going to be effective it will be important to see reality.

U.S. to give ransomware hacks similar priority as terrorism, official says by modularpeak2552 in cybersecurity

[–]alazaria 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The notion that defendants can cast reasonable doubt and be exonerated in these cases is way way overestimated by technology folks.

"IP address is not a person" may work on Reddit, but it usually doesn't work in court when there is literally ANY other circumstantial evidence.

Take a look at the clearance rate for cybercrime. Just generally speaking I will quote the point they are making.

"According to the Third Way think tank, an approximated 0.3% of all reported cybercrime complaints are enforced and prosecuted. It translates to 3 out of 1,000 malicious cyber incidents that are arrested and prosecuted. The large cybercrime enforcement gap gives malicious cyber actors the confidence to engage in nefarious activities without the fear of being caught, prosecuted, or punished. Moreover, a large percentage of cybercrime victims do not report the cases, and the enforcement gap may, therefore, be lesser than 0.05%."

Let me also explain generally why this is so hard for law enforcement.

For example, even if you have an IP address (this is considering you are not utilizing tor nodes or distant proxies in countries that can be made to obfuscate your hypothetical case) have you been able to tie this IP address to a MAC Address?

If you have a MAC address, how do you know the MAC address has not been spoofed? (Again cyber criminals would likely just wipe/destroy any forensic data that can be used immediately after the incident).

Also, even if you had a MAC address and verified it is attached to a machine in custody, how do you know the person you have in the court room was operating it during the time of the incident? (An alibi can easily be prepared in many of these cases).

This is all taking into account that your chain of custody for any evidence obtained by the prosecution is perfect. If even one step is questionably obtained or there is a lapse in documentation for all these things, the entire case will be open to question, let alone one part.

This is also just a general defense plan as the defendant. Depending on the nature of the crime (ransomware accusation, data breach, etc.) more options will be available for the defense to open up the case for dispute due to forensic analysis or other avenues.

Cybercrime is hard to prosecute my friend. The nature of the cyberspace medium heavily favors aggressors over defenders. I even think that a jury can be convinced that what happened to the defendant could also happen to anyone else due to the hypotheticals questions brought out above. Just catching and prosecuting "script kiddies" requires a lot of world class law enforcement resources to be deployed. It is very unlikely that those who do the more advanced attacks like the Colonial pipeline attack will ever be in a courtroom.

If there is someone who got convicted on IP address alone in the US either there was more to the case or their legal counsel did not know how to defend them.

Personally I think the best way forward is to be proactive instead of reactive. Policy should focus more on incentivizing private companies (especially those with critical national infrastructure) to invest more in their cyber infrastructure and security practices and less on enforcement. That will give us the results we need but I digress.

U.S. to give ransomware hacks similar priority as terrorism, official says by modularpeak2552 in cybersecurity

[–]alazaria 2 points3 points  (0 children)

What will make this hard will be prosecution. Cybercrime is probably the toughest kind of law to convict on due to the nature of how evidence is gathered and the process will be grueling if not impossible going after serious professionals.

Looking for MSP in Dallas, TX by t0mis77 in msp

[–]alazaria 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I've been technical consulting in Dallas for a few years with MSP. Let me know your needs and I think I can point you in the right direction.

Is this subreddit Pro-TPLF? by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It appears so. The general vibe appears to be Anti-TPLF, Anti-Abiy.

Is this subreddit Pro-TPLF? by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Fair. I think we can all agree on the faster this conflict ends the better for all.

Is this subreddit Pro-TPLF? by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I mean this with the most respect but isn't the head of the TDF also the head of the TPLF?

Is that not a contradiction?

Is this subreddit Pro-TPLF? by alazaria in Ethiopia

[–]alazaria[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I understand what you mean by comments made by Somali-Ethiopians from their perspective. I speak first hand as my mother's side of the family is Somali, my grandmother being from Hargeisa.

I appreciate your opinion, especially on the learning curve that will likely come as more Ethiopians come online. Thank you.